[Charlie D]

I have to say there is no groundswell of opinion from racing’s participant bodies and general betting public that all NH distances should be officially described to the nearest yard and amended if necessary on a fixture by fixture basis.

There shouldn’t need to be a groundswell of opinion from anyone for a sporting body to provide this type of information

Amazing statement imo, but there again, maybe not

[Charlie D]

But the judge added: "Remarkably, it was only in cross-examination that the very significant limitations and shortcomings in the evidence he was able to give became clear."

In court, Mr Murrihy had said "it was not incumbent that I verse myself in UK or other jurisdiction rules".

Mr Murrihy also said in evidence: "I have not said I was an expert in respect of UK races.

"The judge said in his ruling today: "This is an extraordinary admission given that he was purporting to give evidence about 27 races run in the UK according to UK racing rules.

"In my opinion, that was tantamount to Mr Murrihy disqualifying himself in giving evidence in relation to the suspect races.

"In my opinion it is now clear that Mr Murrihy’s evidence was subject to a number of significant limitations and shortcomings which were not evident from his witness statements and his evidence in chief."

The judge added: "It is abundantly clear that his evidence fell far, far short of establishing a prima facie breach of UK racing rules.

"I have reached the conclusion that even if it was appropriate to admit Mr Murrihy’s expert opinion, its probative value is so limited that very little value can be attached to it."

I’ve not read all daily reports, but it sounds like prosecutions case could have been nominated for a comedy award

[Charlie D]

If Denman is not a 180-horse I will eat my ha

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … rse-i.html

[Charlie D]

FOF

using same "yardstick" handicapping as above

Best Mate (IRE)
2 shd Seebald (GER)
3 16 Frenchman´s Creek
4 dist Sir Rembrandt (IRE)

Had Best Mate beaten Seebald and Frenchmans Creek a similar distance Denman won Hennessy he would have probably been awarded an RPR of around 175 instead of the 164 he was awarded for winning a Class 2 race.

If it had been off levels and BM won same race by 11 lengths, the race would probably have been rated around 171+

You might interpret BM not running to any of those marks, just like you seem to be suggesting Denman didn’t run 180+ or whatever, Corals on other hand think he did and thats why he’s a 6-4 poke for GC with them

[Charlie D]

And using the Aon Chase – or yardstick handicapping – isn’t???

Applying your own daft criteria to KS’s first run last season:

158 horse by 21 = 188 performance
147 horse by 29 = 200
153 horse by 52 = 219
160 horse by 60 = 228

Using your own principles, would you now admit that KS is not only a 20lb better horse than D, but also a threat to Arkle?

reet

It is daft, but the reason for using the daft scenario was to try and show how it compared against the higher Grade race like the Aon regarding it’s strength, just like your scenario shows it was a strong race and KS was worth his rating

I could have just chosen to use the OR’s on their own, or the RPR;s

as i stated here

Denman had seven horses officially rated 140 + horses finish in the first ten, , he also had three 150+ horses in the next five places, where KS only had three in the whole field, which also suggest a stronger race than the Aon

it also shows Denman did actually beat some decent horses in Madison De Burlais, Knowhere and Juevieneur

Anyway, i hope that helps in understanding why i posted the daft scenario

The only question in peoples mind should bei, did they run anywhere near their marks.

If just one of those did, then he’s posted a mark of 180+ and poses a very big threat to Kauto Star

As for Arkle i cannot comment, as he was before my time

:

[Charlie D]

.look at what he actaully beat not what was in the race and he beat nothing.

lets look what he beat using yardstick handicapping and 1lb per length down to tenth place

142 horse by 11 = 172 performance
135 horse by 19 = 180 performance
151 horse by 20 = 181 performance
151 horse by 23 = 184 performance
152 horse by 26 = 187 performance
143 horse by 28 = 189 performance
145 horse by 29 = 190 performance
135 horse by 32 = 197 performance
139 horse by 37 = 198 performance

same with 2006 Aon Chase, all runners

155 horse by a neck = 165
147 horse by 14.5 = 165
132 horse by 27 = 169
134 horse by 31 = 175
154 horse by 32 = 196

Using the "yardstick" , The Grade 3 Hennnessy looks to have been a better race than the G2 Aon and the, RPR awarded to each winner also seem to confirm this.
Denman had seven horses officially rated 140 + horses finish in the first ten, , he also had three 150+ horses in the next five places, where KS only had three in the whole field, which also suggest a stronger race than the Aon

You can question the merit of Denmans performance as some have done, but to say he beat nothing is stretching the truth a somewhat

[Charlie D]

Coral have priced up Denman @ 6/4 for next March’s Gold Cup.

Kauto Star is next @ 2/1.

Another over-reaction?

Depends how you look at yesterdays performance i suppose

If you view it as a tip top run with probably more to come, then Corals probably have both horses at about the right price

[Charlie D]

He’s probably playing safe TDK

RP have altered Denman

2:40 Denman 3m2½f 6m 58.60s 15.8s +23.60s +0.89s -1.04s/f 148 180 Soft Soft

though result page RPRs have not been altered yet

[Charlie D]

From RP

PHIL SMITH, the British Horseracing Authority senior handicapper, rates Denman 1lb inferior to Exotic Dancer after his weight-defying triumphin the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup.

Smith places Paul Nicholls’ imposing chaser on a perch of 176, from a mark of 161, following his awesome 11-length success at Newbury on Saturday.

"He’s right up there with the other two stars that we’ve got, Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star," insisted Smith.

"But because he hasn’t done it in a Grade 1 event yet, whereas the other two have, I’m going to put him a pound behind Exotic Dancer on 176.

[Charlie D]

Dream Alliance’s position is a head scratcher, but he was possibly open to improvement and all these seem to have run near to their previous marks

Character Building
Madison De Burlais
Knowhere
Juveigneur
Always Waining

Which suggests it was a cracking performance by the winner, and by my reckoning one of about 182 with a couple of big +’s thrown in for good measure

[Author]

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