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I wouldn’t open the market with odds on for this race. Bluesquare are starting off with prices that other firms let the price get hammered down to. If it’s to be such a short price, then let the punters hammer it down to that price. Alot of bookies will be banking on punters lack of knowledge on French horse racing.
I understand what you are saying Graeme. There won’t be much value on their 139% book.
But it doesn’t make sense to say "If it’s to be such a short price, then let the punters hammer it down to that price." If that was always the case the bookies would be broke!!!!
BlueSquare are sh*t. They started off with 2/1 on that horse you’re talking about, now they’ve kicked off the market with 4/5 on Fantasia for the French Guineas. A decent firm wil show up those odds for what they are.
Ok thats fair enough. What price would you lay her at then?
Oh, and I don’t wanna sign up for the Blue Sq fan club lol….
but credit to them for going up first with the French 1000G and 2000G.
Perhaps Halfwaytoheaven will tell us which of those prices he thinks is gutless before he can see any other firms prices?
You do seem to be awfully offended by the remark, Black Type, if indeed you’re not affiliated with Blue Square in any way.
Perhaps halfwaytoheaven is simply commeting on the fact that Blue Square seem to be consistently shorter than every other firm. That is, of course, to the detriment of their business as people will simply look elsewhere, but it doesn’t make one person’s observation any less credible.
Still, you assured me Sea The Stars wouldn’t run in the 2000 Guineas so perhaps you’re not involved after all.
lol thats true. I did
I wasn’t awfully offended. Just said I had no link to them thats all.
It just gripes me because it is so easy to have a go at bookies that go shortest without doing any research yourself.
For me, I think Sea The Stars IS plenty short enough at 5/2.
As for Patkai, I stand by my assertion that 2/1 was not a ridiculous price.What a suprise, once again gutless Blue Square go 5/2 for Sea The Stars to win the Derby
Same as Ladbrokes. Are they gutless?
Black Type, do you work for Blue Sq by any chance?
Lads shortened him to 5/2 since this morning. Corals put him up at 5/1
First BSq put Patkai at 2/1, now STS at 5/2, THAT is why I’m calling them gutless. They over react when others keep horses a full 2.5points further out
I certainly have no affinity for Blue Square whatsoever.
Patkai is now biggest price 10/3 with W Hill
Sea The Stars is now a standout 4/1 with Coral onlyBefore slagging off whoever goes shortest after a race (be it Blue Sq or whoever?), perhaps you should try pricing the horse yourself using your own opinion? Make a price that you feel you would be happy to lay the horse at. Its very easy to slag off whoever goes shortest without having any opinion of your own.
Why not have a go at pricing the top 10 in the Derby yourself and see what you come up with?
What a suprise, once again gutless Blue Square go 5/2 for Sea The Stars to win the Derby
Same as Ladbrokes. Are they gutless?
BlackType,
As it currently stands, despite me being a big Patkai fan there are too many negatives for him to be 2/1 favourite for the Gold Cup.
The main plus is he handles Ascot very very well and he’s one of the shining lights in what is, in all honesty, a weak division at the moment.
The negatives…….. He hasnt run 2m4f before, he didnt beat anything substantial in his first prep race, the trainer hasnt won the race since the 1970s. Look back at SMS quotes from last year too and he actually says he’s not bred for anything further than 2 miles….. (something I only just noticed when I went digging)
The bookies have shortened him so much because they cant see anything other than Yeats in this division. If something else runs well over 2m or in the Chester Cup next week no doubt they’ll be shortened dramatically too.
At anything above 8’s he’s worth the punt but at 2/1 favourite he’s not worth it with the negatives about him.
As much as I like him, he’s a false favourite
Thats fair enough, he does seem very short but there is no way he should be 8/1. Remember the bookies have to factor in the fact that Yeats may not run. I stand by my previous post that 2/1 is not a joke price. I’m not suggesting he is going to win or should be shorter, just disagreeing with the slagging of Blue Square for taking a view. Lets hope they go bigger price on everyone else if they really like Patkai?
Just looking from a compilers point of view with the 2 horses.
1) Yeats – plus points – supreme champion, certainly stays, multiple CD form etc, proven G1 performer.
– negatives – 8 years old, disappointed on debut (although may just have blown up). The crucial question with Yeats for me is will he go straight to Ascot or have another prep run? If he ran again and finished down the field then would he turn up at Ascot? Of course if he ran again and won then he would be Fav again and rightly so.2)Patkai – plus points – Young improving, shown form this year (however dubious), almost certain to line up.
negatives – Unproven at this level, will he stay?Whether you side with Yeats, Patkai or anything else is a matter of opinion but for me I would rather back Patkai @ 4/1 and hope he stays at this stage.
Just 6 weeks to wait anyway!!
It’s a a totally false price and in a minute Iwill explain why The horse was available at 12/1 the day beforethe race. Yeats had aready been beaten. Pakthai wins a 4 horse race against an AW weather winner who is a millinium away from being a Gold Cup horse you think he’s a 2/1 shot to win one of the toughest races on the calendar. You cant even be sure he would get the trip in a true run race.
Sure he’s a decent horse but the only reason Blue Square cut him to 2/1 is they laid the horse for the AGC in the morning before he won that race. In short thier book was full and they didn’t want any more money for the horse. No way do they believe for 1minute he’ a 2/1 shot.
You better get up a lot earlier in the morning if are going to come on here thinking your some sort of smart ass matey.
The 12/1 was the false price "matey". lol
I DIDN’T say he I thought he was a 2/1 shot. I just said I don’t think it is a ridiculous price. I think 4/1 is still very fair, just as thought 12/1 was the day before and the 16/1 a couple of days before that.
2/1 may seem short but as he is a very likely runner I don’t think it is excessive. What % chance would you give to Yeats turning up, and if he didn’t what price would you be on Patkai then?
And they won’t have laid much Ante Post prior to the price.
The part of your post I didn’t understand was saying that 2/1 was a joke price and then saying it was a 2 horse race?!?!?
Great stuff getting 12’s but is this a joke? Horse wins a non event at 2/5 and Blue Square cut him to 2’s
. Nice horse admitedly but a far cry from anything Yeats has achieved.
I see nothing wrong with Yeats running down the park considering what AOB has in mind for him. You can bet your boots he wasn’t anywhere near fit and he has been beaten before when he looked like he should have won easily. He was long odds on not that long ago and was beat.
Yeats has one target this season and O’brien has one entry. No Septimus only Yeats.
4/1? I’ll be havig plenty of that over the next few days and this who are scraping about trying to get evens a coupe of weeks before the race will be wishing they had to.
If I had 12’s Paktai that would give me even more reason to back Yeats as I can’t think of another horse who will get near the pair come the big day
.
These sort of comments slagging bookmakers really make me laugh.
On the one hand you say its a joke that somebody goes 2/1 yet in the same post you say you think it is a two horse race and one of those ran a shocker on its debut and would be far from a certainty to even line up!!
Personally I think he is a bet at 4/1. You know he is going for the race and has shown he is fit and well this season. Admittedly he didn’t beat much but how strong is the Gold Cup line up likely to be?
2/1 is not a bad price in my opinion.
Bluesquare msut’ve been impressed with Patkai, they’ve got him at 2/1
BlueSq are ridiculous. Theyre possibly the most gutless bookmaker out of the lot
Always shorter than everyone else
Really? well what price would you be happy to lay him at?
Looking at Archipenko….
If you look at the Dubai World Cup meeting, EVERY single De Kock horse ran like a drain, something was clearly wrong with his horses.
If he is back to his best I would safely ignore that run for form purposes.
Don’t believe it one iota. Expect the usual quota of runners to compete.
Where are all these other runners going to come from though?
Maybe VOCALISED after a decent run today?
Can you name any more?
Very useful, Black Type, a revealing insight.
Sea The Stars was always an unlikely runner, hence the big price and small stake, but on what grounds are the other two non-starters?
Given that Spring Of Fame is 250 to back with nobody wanting to back it on Betfair should tell you all you need to know.
Nobody wants to back Ashram either although a chance he could run I guess?
But as Godolphin have stated that Shaweel is their Guineas horse can’t imagine either running sorry.
Hi Bulwark,
I would’ve thought Cityscape wanted softer ground and 7f surely too short.
One for the Champion Stakes in October maybe? lol
Unless something has happened to Ashram? Have always thought Soul City may be one for it aswell, as may City Style, the Godolphin horse who was pulled out of the craven yesterday.
Thought Godolphin stated Shaweel their Guineas horse?
A small field doesn’t necessarily mean a poor race. Going back many years I remember Brigadier Gerard, Mill Reef and My Swallow, each a potential winner in any other year, being part of a field of only 6. That was as good a renewal as many.
Hi robnorth,
didn’t say anything about it being a poor race? just a smallish field.
I’m disappointed that Crowded House is being aimed at the Dante rather than the Guineas, and get the distinct impression that this race will take little winning. I’m not a fan of Rip Van Winkle (having travelled strongly he ultimately made hard work of beating Cuis Ghaire) and remain unconvinced by both Mastercraftsman and Delegator.
I backed Spring of Fame at 66/1 following his return at Wolverhampton (thankfully he failed to win the Kentucky Derby qualifier at Kempton and so will be sent to Newmarket), but have also had some interest in both Ashram and Sea The Stars. I remain slightly dubious about the former’s participation, given that he’s another talented juvenile to have been snaffled by Godolphin, but there’s do doubting how impressive he was in winning the Somerville Stakes at the beginning of October (I don’t think Ryan Moore was particularly good on him behind Intense Focus). The later, trained by John Oxx, really took the eye in beating Mouryan in the Beresford and Recharge certainly hasn’t done the form any harm. He likely needs further than a mile, but the combination of a strong pace and stiff finish should suit.
Spring of Fame @ 66/1
Ashram @ 33/1
Sea The Stars @ 33/1Spring Of Fame won’t run
Ashram probably won’t run
Sea The Stars won’t runOh dear
