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Thanks Colin,
Reading my message back I hope I haven’t come across as some sort of patronising know-it-all!
I’ve learned a few things the (very) hard way and just trying to share a bit.
Baz
Hello Young Mick,
I have read all of the replies on here and whilst I appreciate that all of the betting advice was given with good intentions I would urge you as a new punter to consider the following:
The lucky 15 is a mugs bet. The reason that the bookmakers print special slips for it should indicate that they love this kind of trade. The bet is made up as follows:<br>4 singles<br>6 doubles<br>4 trebles<br>1 four-fold.
Now, let’s consider what has happened to your bet after your first selection loses. You are left with the following:
3 singles<br>3 doubles<br>1 treble
You are now down to seven bets from a possible fifteen. Your one loser has cost you more than half of your bet! This is complete suicide to your betting bank.
Moving on to the straight forecast bet. Again this is a complete con. The odds on offer to you as a punter have an overround built into them for the bookmakers profit. These odds are then used as the basis (plus a few other factors) to calculate the forecast return, but a further deduction is made to the odds making it a more attractive proposition for the bookies. A further factor that makes the f/c a bad bet is that you are relying on two horses in the same race to perform to expectation. This is usually hard enough to do for one!
Like I said, I’m not trying to deride the people who posted the advice with the best of intentions, just trying to give you something to think about.
OK, so what would I recommend?
Win singles and play within a strict money management schedule. Play level stakes about 2% of bank until it has increased by about 20% or so then increase it to 2% of the new total. Don’t alter the stakes to 2% of the bank for every bet as this will lose you money (mathematical fact).
Finally, you need to look at racing differently from others. If you always reach the same conclusions as the rest (ie fav backing) you are destined to lose! You need to follow your own path.
Read books on betting too. Think college education, there is a wealth of knowledge out there. Some of it is rubbish. You need to be selective in what you accept from what you read.
Good luck mate.
Baz.
Hello FHL,
I too follow Hove very closely and spend hours studying each week.
My main concern with the system is that you could easily face a complete wipeout in one day and suffer exactly the same experience the next too. If you play trap numbers based on previous trap statistics then you are relying on the coming days racing being a similar scenario to those run previously.
Say for example you were about to play traps 2 & 3 who have been winning a lot recently. Every single win is achieved as a direct result of the dynamic at play between every dog in that race.
To take this further say the trap 2 & 3 winners have all come from fast trapping dogs. One the day you play, all the dogs in T2 & 3 are slowcoaches and they all lose.
Basically, what I am trying to say is that you may like to perhaps develop your selection process further in order to add a further dimension to your overall knowledge of the coming days racing.
Still, if you keep winning who am I to say?
Mavourneen T1 race 10 on sunday 6th May.
