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Noland is progressive young horse.
Wind op appears to have helped him.Unfortunately The Listener has had his best days and we will see him in decline this term.
War OfAttrition has done very well to come back but this is a different kettle of fish.It will be stunning if he can pull it off.
For me,I’ll take a young progressive horse like Noland.
This is his trip at this stage of his career.Can’t possibly answer that question until after the race, aaronizneez.
I repeat that I’m agnostic about both horses – I’m only responding with my view that Master Minded might be being under-rated by some on the strength of his Aintree performance, which I don’t think has all that much relevance in terms of his known form over 2m.
Agnostic.
I like that word. The definition is ‘a person who believes that the existence of God is not proveable.’
I too am agnostic about Saturdays race.But once it has taken place I will
accept that the winner is the God of the current 2mile Chase division, evn if it is **** at the moment..Who it will be I really don’t know.What I do know is this is the most enthralling race of the Jumps season to date and any enthusiast should not miss it.
Unless of course they have a personal meeting with the real Almighty otherwise known as Alex Ferguson..
I think firefox’s argument about MM jumping holds some water.
I also like the theory about MM being taken on in running.This is a good race for the trainer Howard Johnson to find out if Tidal Bay can compete at the very highest level at this 2m trip.
The Arkle victory has suggested he might get away with it at 2m.
But the trainer has always felt this horse would be suited by two and a half stroke three miles.I think the King George is the principal target that was outlined for the horse by his connections pre season.
This race fits nicely into that schedule.
I am a big fan of Tidal Bay.
I think he might just be able to pull it off on reasonable ground.I am perplexed by the rating MM was afforded by a lazy handicapper.
But that doesn’t stop him being a very good 2miler.
For me it is not a betting contest at the prices.Anyone know why he hasn’t been on RUK for some time?
because he gives punters good advice and a good steer.
Bookies don’t appreciate that.
Now we get BOOKIES GIVING PUNTERS ADVICE ON WHAT TO BACK!!!!!!
My much missed Grandpa would have died laughing if the cancer had got him first!!!
RidiculousWith the heavy ground they raced on I think it would
be a bit rash to start writing horses off or making big
statements about what they might achieve.
It looks to me that the Irish have a good squad to work
with.
They will miss Glencove Marina but all of the chief
protaganists today have a future.
Tranquil Sea hated the ground and should not be written off.
Its still very early days.
Aran Concerto is without doubt the Irish novice I am most
looking forward to.
But we need to see more before even thinking about punting on the
Sun Allince or the Arkle.Hands up AFO does go lefthanded on a flat track.
Well done to the Pipe yard.
The form is not great judging on the exposed winner and third.
Doubt AFO is anything more than a high class handicapper.
You never know though,
High Chimes ran a good Welsh Nat trial.
My Will has done connections proud.Stats are just a series of coincidences.
You know statistically you should rule all grey horses out of the National?
We’ve had 3 grey horses win in 150 years – none since the 60’s.
We should rule out horses wearing blinkers too – exceptionally poor record. Earth Summit was the first in a long while.
Generally I agree.
But some are so compelling that from a betting point of view you have to give them respect.
Greys winning the national is a crap stat-if you had one grey in every National in 150 years there would be something like 5850 other colours
having competed against 150.That tells the story.
The stat you quote about GC winners trying to regain their crown after a defeat is compelling.So many quality horses have tried and failed.Prior to Katchit winning last seasons renewal,there were three five year olds in forty years who won the CH.
They were Persian War-ultimately a three time winner of the race.
Night Nurse-a dual winner and placed in the race
See You Then-ultimately a three time winner of the raceDo you think we might all be underestimating the value of Katchits achievement?
I love this post… in my usual objective way!
Another believer!
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If we get a second five year old winning the CH in consecutive seasons after only three in forty years I’ll go to the foot of our stairs and eat my hat!!Binocular is hyped,the Supreme form is nothing but average.
Katchit is special.Seriously though, I agree of course
So many question marks against all the main protaganists.
It will,as usual be a great spectacle but is a no bet race,
There is no value left in anything.All you AFO fans-Do you really think the trainer has any idea what a
TOP CLASS horse works like.I think he’s a dreamer.Last 11 renewals three 7yos have won and two 6yos and between they have won the last four renewals.
Four 9yos and two 8yos make up the list.
More interestingly only one horse has carried over 11st(Halcon Genelardais)in that time.No horse rated 150+ has won the race in this time.
Seven winners come with a BHB rating in the 130s.Another Hennessy runner of interest with my eye on the Welsh Nat is Evan Williams High Chimes.
The Welsh Nash, rather than the Hennessy, is the top handicap I’m really expecting Verasi to land this season. If he isn’t going to win at Newbury, hopefully he runs somewhere way down the field, and doesn’t affect his handicap mark too much.
On current ratings, he’s due to get 24lbs from Halcon Genelardais, which is a nice ‘racing weight’ for this kind of marathon.
The trainer will make a decision on Verasi nearer the time but is of the opinion that the horse is a devout soft ground stayer, which sounds perfect for this race. I’m off to do my home work on what sort of record seven year olds have in the race.
I like your thinking here Grass.There is, of course, that possibility. His seasonal debut was encouraging though, if his trainers statement he would badly need the run is taken at face value.
The yard has been flying.But I never have quite fully understood the trainer.
After Best Mate and Edredon Bleu I think the thread is hard on HK and TB.
Maybe our expectation is too high.
Mind you Jim jumping ship is a very good point.I just think he’s ran in better races at left handed tracks to be honest.
So he lacks the class??
What evidence is there to suggest AFO needs to go right handed? Admittedly, his best form is that way around, but his best effort as a hurdler was at Cheltenham and his second to AR at Ascot was a fair reflection of his merit at the time- disagree AR isn’t well enough handicapped as well given he wasn’t extended to beat AFO in the Reynoldstown and 149 handicap-winner Roll Along in the RSA
He was beaten a distance in the hurdles race at Cheltenham you have mentioned.
He has won all his races over fences on right handed tracks bar one win in a weak novice at the figure of eight Fontwell.
In two runs over fences on lefthanded tracks he was thrashed by Hobbs Hill at Newbury last November and the same happened in the Sun Alliance.On both occassions he jumped poorly.
The question is valid.
Give me a reason not to worry-he ticks a lot of the other boxes.
Does he go RH and does he have the class?Where did all his money come from?
Especially to be able to buy so many horses and have million pound bets?
Writing a greyhound column?
Lots of odds on winners?
Anybody know?Prior to Katchit winning last seasons renewal,there were three five year olds in forty years who won the CH.
They were Persian War-ultimately a three time winner of the race.
Night Nurse-a dual winner and placed in the race
See You Then-ultimately a three time winner of the raceDo you think we might all be underestimating the value of Katchits achievement?
