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The said the same thing about the Champion Hurdle but it happened.
You may find no horse has even tried to win it 2 years after doing so, which is a good reason why it’s never happened….correct me if I’m wrong as I am dependant totally on memory here.
The Champion Hurdle thing was not a never have merely in a long time as 5 year olds had won it in the past, just not for years. The same can be said for greys in the National, but when something has NEVER happened before you surely have to take note.
Stats are just a series of coincidences.
You know statistically you should rule all grey horses out of the National?
We’ve had 3 grey horses win in 150 years – none since the 60’s.
We should rule out horses wearing blinkers too – exceptionally poor record. Earth Summit was the first in a long while.
Generally I agree.
But some are so compelling that from a betting point of view you have to give them respect.
Greys winning the national is a crap stat-if you had one grey in every National in 150 years there would be something like 5850 other colours
having competed against 150.That tells the story.
The stat you quote about GC winners trying to regain their crown after a defeat is compelling.So many quality horses have tried and failed.It was only Best Mate winning three GC’S that made people forget that horses didn’t win more than once [still an an achievement that I never appreciated at the time].
The said the same thing about the Champion Hurdle but it happened.
You may find no horse has even tried to win it 2 years after doing so, which is a good reason why it’s never happened….correct me if I’m wrong as I am dependant totally on memory here.
The Champion Hurdle thing was not a never have merely in a long time as 5 year olds had won it in the past, just not for years. The same can be said for greys in the National, but when something has NEVER happened before you surely have to take note.
Got me wrong I was talking about Comedy of Errors the only horse ever to win the title back.
Haven’t read the first 8 pages. Who do people think will win – Big Buck’s, Air Force One or Barbers Shop?
3 things lost Kauto the GC last year:
1) The ground (& the distance as a result)
2) Ruby’s ride – I think he expected Denman to come back much quicker
3) The fact that Denman is an absolute machineGiven good ground and Ruby keeping closer tabs on the tank it should be a lot closer. Whether it’ll be close enough? I would still side with Denman but at the moment KS is certainly the more attractive AP proposition.
What lost Kauto the GC last year was two hard races in the KG and Ascot race, whilst Denman ran in a couple of Mickey mouses.
Well he was never out of a canter in the King George and wouldn’t have blown a candle out afterwards…….he most certainly never had a hard race.
Ascot was somewhat different………he was expected to win that in a common canter but while he won it easily enough Ruby did have to get after him a bit and he wandered of a straight line as well.
I was truly disappointed with him and thought many people were looking at him through rose coloured glasses…….The words brilliant and great were being thrown about by a lot of people and I sorta went "Hmm!!"
I was expecting a much easier classier win to be honest especially after the way he did it so easily in the King George.
When I heard he had gone lame I immediately thought that was the reason he hadn’t been as impressive as I hoped…….Chances were he was feeling a bot sore in the closing stages as these things don’t just all of a sudden appear and it could explain why Ruby had to get down to the drive position to keep him up to his work after the last.
If he was it could also explain why the keeness seemd to have gone out of him at Cheltenham…….horses have good memeories and if they have felt pain when doing something they lie us think about it when doing it again…………maybe he was thinking "is this going to hurt" Who knows what goes on in their heads……..whatever was ailing him at Chelters seems to still be worrying him……..he was full of himself at Kempton and never looked like making an error he took of at his fences with great confidence something he seemd to lack these days…..he seems to just be fiddling round waiting for a fence to jump up and clout him………hopefully he can bounce back to his confident old self,,,,,,,,,,Ruby knows him better than anyone and he has got to win the King George in a common canter or he can forget the Gold Cup……he bloody better as I have backed him for enough
If he puts in a lacklustre performance at Kempton make no mistake they will run him again before Cheltehman as he won’t be winning any gold cup…….if he wins as he should, I hope he does go straight for the big one……..then we will see how good Denman really is
If he puts in a lacklustre performance at Kempton make no mistake they will run him again before Cheltehman as he won’t be winning any gold cup…….if he wins as he should, I hope he does go straight for the big one……..then we will see how good Denman really is
I think Denman showed how good he is last year. It seems to me if KS gets beat in the Gold Cup again this year that there will be another excuse. If Denman (or anyone else for that matter) gets him off the bridle before the second last then there will be the 2008 Gold Cup excuse and if KS comes there on the bridle 2 out and finds less than anticipated, then there will be the not as good as he was excuse like Haydock. Kauto Star is only fit and well and at his best when he wins if you listen to some. At his best he will win the King George although a revitalised by blinkers Our Vic ought to be able to give him a race but it is of my opinion if all the protagonists turn up fit and well in this years Gold Cup then even at his best Kauto Star would not win. A truely run race over the GC distance, going left handed is not up his street.
The only way we will find out that is if they both turn up on top of their form.
There ca be no excuses this time. Kauto Star won his Gold Cup and won it well enough without setting the world on fire.
Within months he showed us he had improved out of all recognition when abslutely slamming a good field in the King George drawing a quote from Champion jockey Tony MCCoy "it will take Pegusus to beat him in the gold cup"
In between then and the Gold Cup something went badly wrong and nothing will ever convince me differently.
I take nothing away from Denman by saying that but when Ruby said things lke….."we weren’t going that fast" "He was never going" "He may have left his race at Ascot" "He never felt right at anytime in the race" what is he? Some kind of idiot who hasn’t a clue what he’s talking about?
Of course he wasn’t right and he may never be again but the horse Denman beat is definately not the horse I saw winning the King George.
The answer is in Neptune Collonges who if anyone believes could run Kauto Star to a neck on a going day is absolutely off their trolly.
Nice horse for sure but he is not in the same class as kauto Star who up until last seasons Gold Cup was being hailed from every corner of the land as the best chaser in the world.
I believe right now Denman is without doubt the best chaser in the country and unless Kauto can revive the old sparkle which he has not done so far, he has no chance of getting within 10 lengths of Denman.
Having said that I am not as stupid to think that there was no valid excuses for his lacklustre performance in the 2008 Gold Cup.
A blind man running for a bus could see somethng was badly amiss.
Within months he showed us he had improved out of all recognition when abslutely slamming a good field in the King George drawing a quote from Champion jockey Tony MCCoy "it will take Pegusus to beat him in the gold cup"
I can’t have that Kauto Star improved beyond all recognition in last year’s King George. Allowing for his improved round of jumping, the performance was probably no better than in the 2006 renewal.
The margin by which he beat Racing Demon in 2007 as opposed to 2006 (around 3 lengths more) suggests he improved but not ‘out of all recognition,’ and he did it easily both times
Within months he showed us he had improved out of all recognition when abslutely slamming a good field in the King George drawing a quote from Champion jockey Tony MCCoy "it will take Pegusus to beat him in the gold cup"
I can’t have that Kauto Star improved beyond all recognition in last year’s King George. Allowing for his improved round of jumping, the performance was probably no better than in the 2006 renewal.
Ahem!!! am I seeing things here? Allowing for his improved jumping you don’t think he improved.that’s a bit Irish mate is it not?
He was definately jumping much better and travelling much better for it…He was pushing and shoving from the third last in 2006 where he was shaking the reigns a bit at him in 2007 plus the race was well and truly over when Ruby let out a reign 5 out if that was only because he jumped better then so be it but it was a far more impressive win than 2006 in my eyes.
As our friend points out he beat racing demon 3 lengths further but did it doing handstands that would have been 15 lengths if Ruby had realy got after him
Sigh.
Ahem!!! am I seeing things here? Allowing for his improved jumping you don’t think he improved.that’s a bit Irish mate is it not?
Read my post again. I have not contested that the bare form of his 2007 run was marginally better than in 2006. However, I have attributed such discrepencies to Kauto Star’s better round of jumping last year, hence implying that he has not "improved out of all recognition".
As our friend points out he beat racing demon 3 lengths further but did it doing handstands that would have been 15 lengths if Ruby had realy got after him
He also pointed out that 2006 was another facile success, so I fail to see your point here in all honesty.
I find it hard to believe that KS didn’t have a hard race in the KG, when the horses behind him did. It reminds me of the comment that Desmond Lynam made once that top class athletes hurt as much as the rest of us, they just go faster while they’re doing it.
I’d also like to see Denman take on Monet’s Garden and Racing Demon et al over 2 and a half miles, and see how much puff he had left afterwards, and how much spirit.
Going back further to the old Old Guard, I’m always surprised in the Arkle debate about people mentioning in an aside that Mill House was their favourite horse. Was it an Ireland versus Britain thing?Enough of that.
Time for the New Guard.
I’ve come to the conclusion that the Gold Cup will be fought out by Barbers Shop and Imperial Commander. They only have to make the improvement that other horses have made in the past.
They are both at home at Cheltenham.
Barbers Shop will benefit from the distance.
Imperial Commander has got hammered each of the three occasions he attenpted 3+miles when younger, but that was when he was younger.If it comes up mud, Joe Lively will win. I know he’s being aimed at the GN, but he might as well use the Gold Cup as his prep race as any other.
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi
This is a joke isn’t it
You not only have one horse who is going to improve past Denman Kauto Star Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer you a have 2.Never so much in my life have I wanted something. I want to become a bookmaker with punters like you around it must be the easiest job in the world
You not only have one horse who is going to improve past Denman Kauto Star Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer you a have 2.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.