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Tenno Sho results – as I predicted, Jaguar Mail won – almost 6-1 in Australia, unbelievable price. Very nice win indeed, and I’d expect him to make his presence felt in Australia if he comes.
If I were Leigh Jordon, Racing Victoria’s international scout, I’d be making sure that they are top of my list. He looks a real nice horse, with a good turn of foot.
SA Derby results – Kidnapped beat Red Colossus and Sea Galleon.
I think that this was a good SA Derby trifecta, but I doubt the top two are Melbourne Cup horses. Kidnapped is by Viscount out of a Dehere mare, and so he’d be extremely questionable at 3200m. Red Colossus is a Testa Rossa out of a Palace Music mare, so once again, you’d doubt his stamina.
However, I really like Sea Galleon as a progressive type.
He’s by Galileo, and some of his runs are much better than they look on paper.
If there is a Melbourne Cup horse out of that race, it is Sea Galleon.
Fair point – I guess I mean when it comes to the way Australian races are run, stop start, so to speak, they can’t seem to handle it after running 4000m. But it is different everywhere, a Japanese 4000m is different to an English 4000m, just because of the way the race is run.
Thought some of you might find this interesting, a preview of today from a Melbourne Cup perspective.
Both the SA Derby and the Tenno Sho from Japan promise to unveil Melbourne Cup contenders today.
The SA Derby, nearly every year, produces a Cup contender. Last year was one of the off years, although I’m sure if Rebel Raider stayed sound, he would have been competitive. He is likely to get his chance this year.
2008 had Zarita make the final field, but she was scratched on race morning. 2007 saw winner Lazer Sharp run 10th, while Red Lord made the field the following year. 2006 was another poor year, while 2005 was seemingly the poorest of them all – yet one horse made it to the Melbourne Cup (Bart’s Kamsky, he was 200-1) and another started in it two years later after running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup (Douro Valley).
Other winners in recent times to run in the Cup have included Mark Kav’s first Cup runner, Hard to Get, 2003 favourite until his Cup morning scratching Mummify, Big Pat, Markham, Cheviot, Count Chivas, Bullwinkle, Our Pompeii, Melbourne Cup winner Subzero and runner up Shiva’s Revenge.
There is no doubt that it is underrated as a Cup form race – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the likes of Extra Zero, Red Colossus, Kidnapped, Token of Honour, Second King or Sea Galleon competitive in the spring.
The other race is the Tenno Sho, a G1 over 3200m in Japan. Makybe Diva ran 6th in this race in her only overseas sojourn in 2005. Delta Blues finished 10th in the Tenno Sho in April 2006 at his final run before he ran 3rd in the Caulfield Cup at 80-1. We all know he subsequently won the Melbourne Cup. Eye Popper ran 3rd in the 2005 Tenno Sho before running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and 12th in the Melbourne Cup (he was slaughtered).
This year, the likely favourite is Jaguar Mail, having his first run since being beaten half a length in the Hong Kong Vase behind Daryakana. He, to my eye, looks the perfect Melbourne Cup type. If he wins today, expect him to be very high up in bookies markets when the first Melbourne Cup markets are released. He is being ridden today by Craig Williams too – makes an Australian mission look very possible.
Just remember – today could be vital in terms of the spring.
I must say – with Williams riding Jaguar Mail – I’m convinced that he’s going to be on a Cup mission.
I was wondering why Williams went to Japan, he gave up the ride on one of his favourite horses in Ortensia. Bigger spoils await perhaps?
There isn’t a version of that article in Australia Gerald, surprisingly.
Here is my summation that I posted in Australia of the Lloyd Williams horses, as well as the other horses mentioned in the article.
Alandi – he’s had 8 starts for five wins, two seconds and a fifth, he came on to the scene last year winning the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes at his second start over 1m5f (2600m), he then ran Profound Beauty to a neck in the Gr3 Curragh Cup over 2800m, he finished off the season with a hattrick of wins – in the Listed Ballycullen Stakes over 2800m, the Group 1 Irish St Leger over 2800m and the Prix du Cadran over 4000m (beating Yeats)…if he hadn’t had his last run, I’d say that he’d be absolutely perfect for Australian conditions, but the 4000m run can make them dour forever, so I’d be cautious…also a big query on good/dead ground
Our Aristocrat – formerly Aristocrat, he’s had 6 starts for one win and one third, he’s shown some alright form, he makes his debut at Sandown tomorrow
Fergus McIver – a Sadler’s Wells gelding, not sure if he may be too dour for Australia
Grand Ducal – a Danehill Dancer gelding, he was entered but scratched from Flemington Sunday. Very interesting gelding, his last two starts he was beaten 14L in the Irish Champion Stakes by Sea the Stars and 24L in the Arc by, oh, Sea the Stars. He’s a G3 winner, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve.
Muir – formerly Johann Zoffany, ran 12th at Flemington on Sunday
Stillman – formerly Malibu Bay, ran 2nd at Lakeside last week
Mourayan – this looks the pick of the Lloyd Williams horses, he is a half brother to Mourilyan who ran 3rd in the Melbourne Cup, he ran 3rd in the Irish Derby, 2nd to Profound Beauty in the Ballyroan Stakes, to my eye he has always looked like he was a year away from maturing to his best
Our Rockhampton – formerly Rockhampton, he was Aidan O’Brien’s pacemaker in the Classics last year. He was beaten 30L in the Irish Derby, 20L in the King George and Queen Elizabeth and 43L in the Irish Champion Stakes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve.
Sail of Gold – as far as I can see, he’s unraced (that’s been proven wrong, he’s had 9 starts, but I couldn’t find anything)
Cornish – formerly Set Sail, his form is nothing short of woeful…beaten more than 25L in the French Derby, Eclipse Stakes, Juddmonte International, Irish Champion Stakes, Arc de Triomphe and the English Champion Stakes…needs a big improvement
Boland – formerly Trojan War, a name I much prefer…he’s a Montjeu who had 5 starts for 2 wins and 2 placings, showed some okay form and it will be interesting to see how he goes at Sandown tomorrow
The Miniver Rose – has had 9 starts for 2 wins and 2 placings, she’s a High Chaparral so I’ll be following her closely!
Manighar – can’t find much info, except he ran 2nd in the French St Leger to Ask
Becqu Adoree – once again, I didn’t find much info, she’s a Listed winner though
Rundle was scratched, Gerald. Lloyd Williams wasn’t happy with him.
From a Melbourne Cup point of view on the weekend:
Sydney Cup – Jessicabeel was impressive, she’s improving too so wouldn’t surprise to see her up there in November. I’d expect that Harris Tweed will probably be there, maybe Divine Rebel too. Wouldn’t think that anything else in the race could make it there – Littorio didn’t stay the trip, so he won’t be heading there. No Wine No Song probably too old now. Precedence and Zavite were screwed by their respective jockeys, but many people now believe that Precedence is probably a 10f horse and Zavite is just below that class. And I’m not sure about Moatize…
Queen Elizabeth Stakes – hmmm, the only two to look at are Monaco Consul and Doctor Fremantle. I have a prediction about Monaco Consul, I reckon he’ll start 40-1 or more in the Melbourne Cup and go very close. He’ll probably have terrible lead up form, but the way he’s going, he looks like a dead set two miler. His effort in the Queen Elizabeth was sensational, he’s better ridden back yet he led. Doctor Fremantle was very very disappointing, want to see what he does before I touch him again.
Frank Packer Plate – a race which has been won by Might and Power in the past, Moatize placed, Freemason won, and they all went on to run top 6 in the Cup in the same year. This year’s winner was Dariana – a good filly, but I’m not sure if she’s quite up to them. She’s trained by the master though, Bart Cummings, so she has that on her side. I liked the run of the third horse, Viking Hero, he’s heading to the Queensland Derby and I think that he could be a SAAB Quality/Melbourne Cup horse later in the year.
WA Derby – the WORST group 1 on the Australian calendar, without exception, no better than a Listed race. Not many horses have come through the WA Derby, and run in the Melbourne Cup – the only one I can remember in recent memory is Guyno. And I’d be surprised if Chartreux measures up. The only two I’d follow out of the race in the spring are Bridgestone and Brother Mak.
VRC St Leger – I know Exceptionally won, but I wasn’t overly enamoured with her run, she was lucky. The three I’d follow are Gallant Lady, who Lee Freedman said probably has no chance of making a Melbourne Cup, and two who finished very very strongly out wide in Chaparro and Sea Galleon.
Oh mate, I agree with that.
And the bad thing is that Alex asked me to open a betting account in my name for him to use (he’s underage) – and in my opinion, I don’t think he knows too much, although he likes to think he does!
Anyway, back to the great race.
Sydney Cup tomorrow is going to be a great guide, it is probably the best field (despite the size) since Makybe Diva beat Mummify in 2004.
Do you reckon Doctor Fremantle could stretch out to 3200m? I had my eye on him as a Melbourne Cup horse even when he was with Stoute.
Fantastic, at least you know your stuff
unlike a few TBV forumites at the moment…I can’t wait to see Alandi and Mourayan step out, I’m not sure if Alandi will be suited here but I reckon Mourayan will be.
I should have guessed who you were Tedwah.
We are members of the same Australian forum, yes?
Yes, I’m probably Bart’s biggest fan
Fair enough, I see your point, it is just what I look at when trying to find which overseas horses to look at. It was why my main bet was Mourilyan last year.
I disagree to an extent Gerald.
The genuine stayers have all flopped out here – Yeats, Double Trigger, Drum Taps…
I reckon the ideal horse is a 12f-14f sort of horse, so a horse effective from 2400m to 2800m.
But you need more than that, you need a horse who is used to not only handicap racing, but to racing in big fields.
And you need a horse that isn’t one paced.
Who’d you back? Some people believe that the Murrimbidgee Cup winner Leica Larrikin could run in the Melbourne Cup, he’s a full brother to Leica Falcon (who ran 4th in 2005).
I have some very sad news to report, 2008 Melbourne Cup winner and 2009 Caulfield Cup winner (and Melbourne Cup favourite) Viewed has died of a twisted bowel. He was very close to me, I backed him throughout the spring of 2008 when he ran crap, and followed up in the Cup when he won at 40-1.
I’m devastated.
Hahaha not quite, seriously though they dawdled in front, Faint Perfume got a long way back and she rattled home.
Oaks was a disgrace – I’d suggest that even though Once Were Wild won by 3 lengths, Faint Perfume was actually the superior run. OWW had everything go her way.
It’s been a day of emerging Cup horses, Herculian Prince and Booming will probably head that way!
From memory both Furmigadelagiusta and Traffic Guard were "confirmed" to come out here at some stage before they didn’t come.
And Purple Moon’s been out here of course.
I’m interested to see Buxted.
unlike a few TBV forumites at the moment…
he was a damn good racehorse, and when you think of the calibre of horses he beat that year, it was pretty good.