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I love Manhattan Rain, and his trial last Friday was unbelievable.
There is something different about this horse though – yes, Gai is the ultimate trainer when it comes to hyping a horse. But she has been saying since before his debut that he may be the best she has ever trained. And from Gai, that is something.
Cost me a good collect though – I’m not a big antepost doubles punter at all, but I had about $50 AUD worth of doubles throughout last spring.
I had Monaco Consul in the Spring Champion Stakes into Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate for a good $18000 from $5 spent – almost!!!!
And then I had So You Think in the Cox Plate into Warringah in the Melbourne Cup for a $60000 collect from $5 spent. Also had Mourilyan for $10000 from $5 spent.
Heartbreak.
Dream Journey definitely looks a nice horse, and I’d expect him to be competitive here.
There has been a lot of hysteria in Australia about the Japanese, everyone believes that they will win this year.
Thing is, everyone said that the Irish would be winning every Melbourne Cup after Vintage Crop was victorious.
The fact that the Japanese haven’t been here since 2006 has only added to the hysteria, in my opinion.
But I believe that it was actually quite a weak Cup – Maybe Better didn’t do much afterwards, Zipping did improve considerably but cannot run a strong 2 miles, and Land ‘n Stars ran 5th – surely that tells you the strength of that year’s Cup!!!!
I’d be very wary of their runners this year, I don’t think they will blow them away a la Delta Blues and Pop Rock.
It was actually the first Cup I went to, and I’m now in the habit of going every year – if any of you can get to it from Britain, I’d thoroughly recommend it.
I’m from Sydney, but I like to think I know what is happening over here.
Any questions Gerald, and I’ll try to help you out.
The Orr Stakes this weekend is going to be a cracker – but be warned, this race is usually won by a horse who will improve over ground.
In the last 20 years, winners have included Cox Plate (10 furlongs) winners like El Segundo and Maldivian, Melbourne Cup (2 mile) winners like Let’s Elope, Saintly and Jeune, Caulfield Cup (12 furlongs) winners like Elvstroem, and 3yo classic winners like Planet Ruler, Durbridge and Grand Archway.
Lots of horses are looking to start off here, official nominations will be released in an hour, but the Australian media is trying to hype it as a match race between star 3yo colt Denman (who to be honest, I’m not a massive fan of, but that’s because I prefer So You Think) and star mare Typhoon Tracy.
I disagree, I think there are many chances outside of it.
Horses which are possibly heading that way:
Melbourne Cup winner Shocking
Australian Guineas winner Heart of Dreams
Caulfield Guineas placegetter Carrara
2008 Melbourne Cup winner Viewed
Sandown Classic winner Zipping
2008 Turnbull Stakes winner Littorio
Railway Stakes/Kingston Town Classic winner Sniper’s Bullet
2008 Australian Cup winner Sirmione
2008 SAAB Quality winner MoatizeI’m not sure, there are probably more, but that I’ve garnered from different websites.
The one I’m interested in so far is Sniper’s Bullet, connections want to take him to Dubai for the Duty Free, so you’d hope he’d be competitive here.
Our Aqaleem won first up today at Flemington, looked absolutely fantastic – only won by a short half head, but it is a great start to his Australian career as he no doubt needs further.
Ah yes, well he will be in big trouble here then, unless it is like the spring of 1992 when it was wet every weekend.
I did think, when they bought the two Aga Khan horses, that Mourayan would be more suited to the Australian style of racing.
Big heads up for you all – today, at Flemington, 2007 English Derby placegetter Aqaleem, who is racing as Our Aqaleem in Australia, is having his first start since the Gordon Stakes in August 2007 over 1600m. He is with David Hayes (who has seemingly been very much out of form over the past two years), and he has been given plenty of time to get over his issues. If he is a shadow of the horse he once was, he’ll be going close today, and he’ll be set for the Melbourne Cup.
Well I would have understood Alandi before he ran in the Prix du Cadran, because he had been impressive over 2800m. But after seeing him in the Prix du Cadran, I’m not convinced.
By the way, Hood only just won at Goulburn, albeit over 1300m (approx 6.5 furlongs).
Hopefully onwards and upwards!
I think it was Rosedale in 1987.
In regards to So You Think, Bart has said he is likely to race on as a 4yo.
The Melbourne Cup won’t add much to him from a stallion point of view, but the High Chaparral’s do need ground and with Bart training, it is very possible he could be the next Saintly.
I do really like Mourayan’s profile, he definitely looks the right type for an imported horse to succeed here.
Darley Sun won’t be competitive here – he looks too much of a plodder. Of recent European runners, he looks more like a Honolulu style of horse. And Honolulu (apart from being part of the O’Brien trio that went too hard in front) was simply too slow.
As someone else said here earlier, the European horses that succeed here are the ones with 10f-12f, even 14f, form.
The only real exception to the rule was Persian Punch, and in both the Cups where he ran 3rd, there was an extraordinarily strong tempo from the outset and he was ridden perfectly.
But Give the Slip, Central Park, Media Puzzle, Vinnie Roe, Bauer, Purple Moon, Beekeeper, even Vintage Crop all had form over 10-14 furlongs.
The difference as well is obviously finding that horse who is well weighted, but in recent years the weight scale for the Cup has been significantly depressed so it doesn’t overly matter much anymore.
There is a horse making his debut on Friday, at the country racecourse of Goulburn, which many believe has the potential to be a Cups horse this spring. His name is Hood, and he is a Shamardal half brother to our former good stayer Tie The Knot. He is being aimed at the AJC Australian Derby in early April, and then will be aimed at the Cups if all augurs well. He does look an exciting prospect though.
P.S – I had a very barbelicious Australia Day
Hi everyone,
I’ve been reading this post for a while – since the day after the Cup actually – but I’ve decided it is time for me to post my thoughts here.
I’m an Australian, and while I’m about to head off to study journalism at uni after working as a junior form analyst with one of our biggest corporates for the past year (I’m only 19). I love the Melbourne Cup, and I will try to come in every couple of weeks to see what others say and to give my thoughts.
Firstly, MDeering, I agree completely about Oken Bruce Lee. They will send their second stringers, not their best chances for the Japan Cup. I’d love to see Dream Journey down here. A horse I haven’t heard from for a while, who I thought could have been competitive, was Roc De Cambes. Not sure if he is still running.
The Japanese will be back this year, Peter McGauran (who is a former MP, now head of Aushorse) is a good lobbyist!! And the EI threat has surely passed.
In regards to Crime Scene, I believe there were three factors as to why he got so close. Firstly, he had an impeccable second up record, and he was second up into the Cup. Secondly, the blinkers seemed to switch him on. And thirdly, and most importantly, McEvoy rode him perfectly. The fence that day was like quicksand, the inside was at least 5 lengths slower than the ground about two off the fence.
In terms of Godolphin, something always appears in Dubai which could have a good chance. I thought Age of Reason would have been a good chance last year, but he didn’t come.
In my opinion, the list of imported horses who are now with Australian trainers is the strongest it has been in many years. David Hayes has Changingoftheguard (who apparently hasn’t settled in very well) and (Our) Aqaleem, who is still lightly raced. David Hayes has gone off the boil a little bit since his amazing season in 2006-2007, but Lindsay Park has always gone well with imported horses, ever since David’s father Colin was in charge and they had horses like At Talaq, Beldale Ball, Almaarad, Jeune, etc. Lee Freedman has Speed Gifted, as well as Doctor Fremantle (who I believe is a big chance of doing very well over here). Freedman may also have Alandi, Mourayan and Above Average, although that isn’t confirmed. Then you have Scintillo coming here as well, as well as horses who haven’t done too much like Warringah, Martial Law, Stand to Gain…it’s amazing.
And on top of that, we currently have what we believe to be one of the best 3yo crops in Australia since at least 1995-1996, which produced horses like Saintly, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Filante and the Big O, Octagonal.
We are having great success with the High Chaparral progeny, especially So You Think and Monaco Consul. There is still a query over whether they could run a strong 3200m, but to even have them in the race would be a bonus.
I have to be honest, the one thing that in my opinion would finally put the race on a truly global stage would be to have American representation, and frankly I hope the VRC really tries to get an American horse down for the Cup. I know they aren’t as stamina based, and 3200m is unheard of, but it really would make it special.
At the moment, five horses I’d watch are:
So You Think – I love this boy, I declared him a future Melbourne Cup horse and even a potential WFA star after his maiden win, and I backed him at 150-1 for the Cox Plate, which he won, query at the trip but has the Bart Cummings factor
Doctor Fremantle – provided he brings his European form to Australia
Prince of Wales – Michael Moroney’s second string 3yo behind Monaco Consul, he’s been promising so far and he looks a nice horse
Mr Clangtastic – a bit of a selection out of left field, he was an improving stayer last preparation, even starting favourite in the G1 Metropolitan run at Randwick, I may be biased as my family owns horses with the stable but he could improve
Leica Larrikin – another out of left field, he is a full brother to 2005 Melbourne Cup 4th placegetter Leica Falcon, this boy has raced really greenly at the few starts he has had, but he’s another one who is on the way up and could do somethingI’ll pop back in soon, love the discussion!
Andrew
