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Currently 7.60 so the drift continues.
Mind you hwo many times did the Irish trainers release stories about Istabraq in the six weeks before the festival – he would usually turn up fit and well!!
I will be back Sizing Europe for this come the day and can see him being a nice e/w price, He will get the better ground he needs at long last and will run Big Zeb a lot closer than he did today. He loves Cheltenham and is a horse who runs so much better on better ground so all to play for at 16-1.
For information as I am not sure who is aware Forpadydeplaster belongs to friends of ours and at present they are still hopeful he will run in this race. I am not suggesting he will win, but might be shorter than the current 65.00 available on BF.
He had an infected lung at Kempton and then developed pneumonia by the time they got him home, but is well on the road to recovery and still hoping to grab yet abnother 2nd place somewhere this season!
Isn’t one of the biggest stats for this race that the winner has usually only run twice or maximum 3 times and must have won last time out?
I do think Walkon looked good, it was his first run when being beaten up ths hill by Simarian and he has gone on to beat him now. I like the fact that he shows he stays on up the hill and will be on my short list….. in fact probably at the top of it.
I am a big Simarian fan as he reminds me of Katchit and could be a great e/w pick – loves the hill and will the thereabouts but somehow can’t quite see him winning now!
I am a huge ballyfitz fan and will not be put off by the last run, but on a note of caution…. I went to see the horses in the parade ring before the race and to say What a Friend looked rough would be an understatement. He had sweated up a lot, hie coat was not rough, but out of condition and is a small in comparison to Ballyf.
He must come on heaps for the run, but looked like he would handle the soft/ heavy going better than Ballyf and WAF is a true stayer and perhaps one for 3m2f next year.
Ballyfitz looked as good as ever beforehand, but he is such a big horse with that low head carriage I am sure the ground was not truly to his liking.
I will not be considering WAF ante post, but based on the fact he must have more to come I do think he could be a danger if the ground is testing (unlikely I know)
I fear that Forpadydeplasterer may also fall into the category of horses that would be best over 2m4f. He struggled to win in the mud on hi last run, and was said to be fit beforehand (friends are in the owners syndicate).
He was out stayed at the last festival so we will see!I am prepared to be shot down in flames, but I too am a fan of Pettifour and thought he showed a bit of spirit to beat the Nicholls horse who looked to have more in the tank with a couple of furlongs to go – exactly what you need to win a stayers. Still a good e/w price and for me will improve for that run.
However I think experience on the course is very important and to date he has none so I have plumped for a horse who appears to love the course, but does need to improve markedly. Now 20-1, but was paying £45 on betfair – Nenuphar Collonges. Another horse who goes on and off the bridle, but truly stays all day and relishes the Chelt hill.
Still want ID to win really, jusy to hear that cheer again, but surely he is too old having broken the records last year!
I have backed (small punt) Shoreacres after his win yesterday – he is 33-1 and a really nice horse. The trainer seems to think he is one of his best.
I am a big fan of Mad Max and his half sister Carole’s Legacy who was beaten yesterday by Shoreacres,but on breeding she should be better of further than the bare 2m.
I like the look of Cousin Vinnie, but at this stage do not consider 6-1 value, although I am sure the Irish will back him into a very short price if he makes it on the day.
I agree that Tranquil Sea looks like one of the best Irish horses over 3miles and is very exciting, They just went too fast for him in the Supreme Novices and he has improved the further he goes and will be the one for me at 25-1
I think that Fivefourthree is a good horse too and should be good over course and distance – would just like to know if he can jump – guessing Ruby would not be riding him this year – but we will see.
Of the Englsih bunch I still remain a fan of Lodge Lane I am just not sure Cheltenham is his course having had 2 strange and disappointing runs. Did he finish injure last year?). Nenuphar Collonges has already run and won in chases in France so won’t be a novice. One thing I am sure of is the The Tother One will not stay 3 miles around Cheltenham.
Should be a great bunch of Irish Horses. Shame about Venalmar
Agree completely and 10-1 as an e/w prospect could look like a huge price come the day – for me one of the few horses that has some AP value!
Do you not think that MM may frighten off some of the major competitors in th QMCC and therefore the Ryanair could turn into a very hot event.
I hope Tidal Bay goes for the QMCC as I have him as the only horse who can give MM a run for his money by making it into a true test of staying. The Arkle was run 10 seconds slower than the QMCC, but in both races there was an injection of pace after the second last. As we know MM will not stay beond 2 miles, but TB should keep going. If Tidal Bay could do what Denman did to KS which is run the finish out of him then he may have the beating.
Otherwise we could end up with a very good Ryanair with TB, VPU, Jack the Giant, Taranis, Noland (??) and Our Vic to name a few?
Didn’t Kim’s fortunes change when he left Lambourn?
My ex used to run his racing club and Kim is a thoroughly nice genuine chap. I don’t think he gets the quality of horses he used to whilst in "racing centre". There is something to be said for the perception that being in Lamboun/ Newmarket makes you a better trainer (from an owners view). Did this not also coincide with Norman leaving him, as well as Hales?
I still always look for Kim’s horses, particularly in staying chases – Would love to see him do well again!
I am a huge SDM fan, but was worried by the way he looked in January when he ran at Cheltenham, in the parade ring he was a bit lack lustre.
He has always been small, bue also looked out of condition and his coat was poor. I hope that they have given him and easy summer out in the field and he will be back to his old self this season.
I had backed him at a huge price for a place in last years gold cup, but was relieved that they did not run him.
Do you think Ogden will run him this year, last time if I remember rightly it was a weight/ground decision. so I can’t imagine an early decision, but he would surely be a good thing? Trouble will be getting a run into him beforehand I would guess??
It is a stand alone reference book and details every NH horse that has run in the UK last year. Also identifies horses with improvement to come and has some information on what the trainers say.
I have bought it for the last 8 seasons and it has paid for itself specifically in the early season and if you a follower of horses rather than an everyday backer.
I tend to end up with my own list of around 100 horses to follow for the season and for that type of thing it is excellent.
It is more use between now and Chrismas than thereafter and particulalry good information on horses changing codes.
Forpaddydeplasterer [have I spelt that right?]…
I think the paddy has only one d.. I think he will be a star this season..
First time poster on this forum so be kind.
Forpady belongs to a friend (well one leg) and he has already been schooling over fences with a view to a run in October Novice Chasing.
I thought Venalmar looked like a good thing in the Ballymore last year – in fact if he had the rail he could have won the race, should be a nice chaser too.
There were three horses who looked to have a lot of progression in them last season.Mad Max of Hendersons was the biggest horse I had seen for a while and looks like a nice prospect winning a couple of bumpers
Diamond Harry who is a horse bred to stay won the big value Newbury bumper over 2 miles last twice. Could be a nice prosect, but I am not sure about the trainer
Pasco of Nicholls was another huge horse and looks like hurdling is just a stepping stone.As you might guess I am a huge Alberta’s Run fan and think he was hugely under-rated by most people last year. I have concerns about JJON training of chasers, but to be fair he did not do a bad job with Exotic Dancer so I am holding on to that. AR us a really beautiful horse too.
I also beleive that Sizing Europe is value at 10-1 for the CH. He bled after his last run and I would need to see him out again, but they have resolved that he is a nice price.
Good site by the way – nice to see the interest in jumps!
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