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I do quite a few ante-post punts since I’m a huge believer in trends, so it’s easier for me to cut down big fields with confidence weeks/months/years (
) ahead of the event and I very rarely bet outside of pattern company. I’ll put up my current ante-post punts at the moment, although of course I won’t be including them in any totals.Oaks
Perfect Truth, prices ranging from 16/1 to 199/1 (66/1 EW), have been backing her since roughly the 20th March
Beauty O’Gwaun, 26/1, backed in April
Derby
Gan Amhras, 25/1, backed at the end of April
Black Bear Island, 20/1 + 50/1 EW. Backed in August and again in March.
Taameer, 33/1 EW. Backed in March. Dead bet
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Cooldine, 10/1 EW, backed after the R+SA
Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly, 7/1, backed after the Champion Hurdle
(also EW double with Cooldine at 8s and 10s respectively)
Good luck and it’s good to see someone from the discussion race section putting up their ante posts. Only ante posts i’ve got on in your races are Rainbow View Oaks 11/2 & 5/1, and for the derby it’s Crowded House 7/1 and coppers on RVW @ 10/1.
Ok, my first ante-post bet that you can follow me in on.
Ascot Gold Cup
Viper, 100/1 EW (general)
(Also 200/1 double to win the Henry II + Ascot Gold Cup)
It really does look like an appalling year for stayers. Yeats, Geordieland + Tungsten Strike are all too old, while Centennial, Washington Irving + Coastal Path were unplaced (preferrably you’re looking for a LTO winner).
Eastern Anthem, Fiulin (after the Henry II), Veracity, Pointilliste, Tastahill + Hindu Kush have all had more than 2 runs this season. Gravitation and Sagara have no entries so it doesn’t look as if they’ll be having a prep – not a colossal negative, but enough to put me off.
Ask will be swerving the race, Friston Forest ran in a handicap, Sualice looks to completely lack the quality required and last but not least, Patkai ran in the Sagaro Stakes, a dreadful trial where the Ascot Gold Cup is concerned. The last winner to come out of that race was Double Trigger in 1995 and 38 have failed since, including Double Trigger the following year.
This leaves 2 horses. Bannaby and Viper. Bannaby ran in that truly dreadful race in France, the Vigier. Year after year it throws up Ascot Gold Cup losers, and the only exception in the past 14 years was Westerner who’d finished 2nd the year before in the Gold Cup anyway. To be fair though, the race is improving, and a runner from the Vigier has been at least placed in the last 5 runnings (1 winner, 2 2nds, 2 3rds).
However, in a weak year, you may have to turn to a horse who breaks just 1 trend and that may be Bannaby. His trainer also sent out Equiano to win the King’s Stand last year.
Viper seemed to progress at a phenomenal rate last year and the RP says that the Cesarewitch may be a target at the end of the season, but I think they’ve made a wise move in coming here. He’ll definitely stay (he’ll probably stay 3m) and he can possibly just gallop them into the ground. I realise it’s a big step up, coming from a Class 3 Handicap to a Group 2 and then a Group 1, but if he has enough potential and the opposition is poor enough, I don’t see why not.
He is a 100/1 shot, so even £1 EW won’t hurt the bank and it’s a fun bet to have. He certainly has a live shot of grabbing a place at the very least.
A couple of small bets for Sandown.
7.10pm – Viper EW, Fiulin small win bet
I’m definitely out to get Patkai. His 6/4 ante-post quote for the Leger was pathetic, so he owes me nothing. Quite the contrary in fact. I’m out to get him since the form of his wins is so poor. He hasn’t proved that he stays a proper 2m, he hasn’t proved himself outside of G3 quality and he hasn’t proved himself away from Ascot.
I’m slightly worried about Fiulin on the softish ground. I’ll probably do a smallish bet just to cover my Viper bet.
7.45pm – Pipedreamer WIN, Conduit place lay.
Tartan Bearer just barely got up to nab Pipedreamer on the line so I’m not sure what a Leger winner will have to do to win. Until Conduit wins off a mediocre and not suicidal pace, I’ll be a big non-believer in him. Pipedreamer is basically a Group 1 winner running without a penalty given his monumental effort in the Eclipse last year and is running over his perfect trip. I’ll be very surprised to see him beaten, and even more surprised to see Conduit finish ahead of him.
Conduit hasn’t just got Pipedreamer to beat. He’s facing Cima De Triomphe, 5th from the Arc, Campanologist, 4th in the Eclipse, Stotsfold, another decent Group winner, Blue Monday, another decent Group winner. This is a decent field of 10f specialists that he’s facing. I can’t be having him to be placed at all, especially at 1.7.
I’ve just seen on the RP site that Viper’s the best backed horse for tomorrow so far with 230 bets…..Pipedreamer next best with 160. I’ve certainly not backed him 230 times…
Zed, wouldn’t Bannaby really be going against two trends, as the Prix du Cadran winner doesn’t have a good record in the Gold Cup (and vice versa).
I didn’t look into Cadran winners but I imagine you’re probably right. Sergeant Cecil and Reefscape are the only 2 that come to mind in recent memory but there must be loads of them.
That leaves Viper clear to win tomorrow and follow up at Ascot
253 bets now, Pipedreamer 161. Very weird betting for an outsider in a Group 2 with a 1/2 favourite if you ask me…
There is something dodgy about those numbers. You’ll often see more than one horse with the same number of bets.
I hope Geordieland can run a nice race in a couple of minutes because i took 14s for the Gold Cup.
Well he was well outclassed. Congrats to Geordieland backers, but I have to say that it really does look like a dreadful Gold Cup this year.
Well he was well outclassed. Congrats to Geordieland backers, but I have to say that it really does look like a dreadful Gold Cup this year.
Either that or a really open one
Could be a fantastic race
Well I am in dreadful form and I said I wasn’t backing anything til Ascot bar in the Coronation Cup, but my word is there some good value at Haydock in the Group 3 there. How is Tariq a 4/1 shot!?! I make him a 7/4 fav against that field. He’s definitely Group 2 class at the very least and dropping down to 7f with a proper jockey back on-board should see him revert to winning ways.
I looked at that Haydock race from a new angle. There are some pundits/tipsters that are overperforming and some underperforming. Overperformers I will lay as they are due a downturn. Underperformers I will back as they are due an upswing.With this in mind I will back Beacon Lodge e/w and lay Main Aim.
Well I am in dreadful form
and I said I wasn’t backing anything til Ascot bar in the Coronation Cup, but my word is there some good value at Haydock in the Group 3 there. How is Tariq a 4/1 shot!?! I make him a 7/4 fav against that field. He’s definitely Group 2 class at the very least and dropping down to 7f with a proper jockey back on-board should see him revert to winning ways.
Should have listened to myself.
Was thinking about doing Hatta Fort in the opener but I must stick to my own rule that I don’t back Godolphin horses.
Just the one bet for Friday – Look Here in the Coronation Cup. I think she’ll win fairly comfortably and confirm herself as an Epsom specialist.
Have got Perfect Truth already and am extremely confident about victory for her, especially on this ground and now that I’ve looked a lot closer at the form and the other challengers.
Well if you’ve given up on this thread, I don’t blame you. Going through an appalling time at the moment. Look Here managed to lose after getting in front and the one horse I thought was guaranteed to handle Epsom in the Oaks was hard at work after 7f and was basically pulled up.
I backed Gan Amhras and Black Bear Island at 25s and 20s/50s (each-way) respectively a while back and I’m very happy with those bets. I’ve got nothing to add to them except a CFC and tricast with Fame and Glory.
) ahead of the event and I very rarely bet outside of pattern company. I’ll put up my current ante-post punts at the moment, although of course I won’t be including them in any totals.
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