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for a more serious bet i ensure im not backing it to do anything it hasnt done before.
course type (galloping, sharp etc)
left handed, right handed
field size (large, small)
distance (not forgetting yardage)
going
time of year
jockey
class…………….and by the time i think its a good bet the price is gone!!!,chipmunkDISTANCE/GOING combo
Use any system, look at the results, and then apply a filter for distance/going winners and you’ll see what I mean.
Don`t be influenced by other parties, many say you won`t make money betting in Novice chases,that`s a load of crap if you know what you are doing,in this regard im not stuck on any set of rules as im convinced you need a real feel for the game and every situation is differant,however,as a general guide regarding my thoughts on novice chases especially first time up:-
Chasing debutants (for example Begining of season)
-Ex flat horses don`t appeal until they have proven they can really jump with a rhythm.
-If an horse as had many races over hurdles before he goes chasing the chances are he`s not a natural jumper.
-I like horses that can race up with the pace as they get a clearer view of their fences,particular important until the horse gains experience.
-If a trainer takes one chasing to Fakenham/Newton Abbot it`s fair to say he`s not convinced the horse is a natural at least at this stage of its career.
-Jockeymanship is likely to play an important part so take into account the man on top.
Getting the right price is very important, if you can`t get the value leave the race alone, i would say in 95% of novice chases where i punt the price shortens as confidence increases,that alone convinces me i have a particular good feeling for novice chases!!
The price is usually the last thing I look at, and the most important.
I wouldn’t buy a tin of tomatoes without knowing the price, so why bet at SP? If you are betting for amusement, it doesn’t matter, but serious thoughtful punting requires you to know the odds you are getting.
My selection process, in order of importance:
1. The going and the weather forecast as close to the off as possible plus a going assessment based on the time(s) of the early races.
2. Form. A simple calculation to determine which horses have the best chance today on the figures. This usually produces a short list of between one and six.
3. An assessment of the relative chances of horses on my short list taking account of going, course, distance, jockey, likely improvement and progression, draw, intuition.
4.A look at the available odds compared to the odds relative to my percerptions of each horse’s chance – in other words, what stands out as my idea of a fair bet. I can’t claim to prepare a ’tissue’ because I don’t price up every horse in the race.
5.Have a bet if I believe the odds are favourable.
6.Review the race and see what went wrong, or occasionally pat myself on the back for getting it right.
5
Agree with plenty of the above, but its the actual weighting of the factors which is vital
Sometimes one crucial element can override everything else. Other times in can just tilt the balance.
One factor that is so often sneered at is the trainers opinion. Many will say nothing of course, but if you can read certain trainers in certain ways (and im talking the Gosden class of trainer here rather than the Curleys) then that is a vital element ( i feel differently about Jockeys…)
The draw is the first thing i look at see if there is a bias at the track then look to see if any have had a good rating figure i usually go by Raceform update see who has won at distance and on the going and how many times then check out if the horse has ran well in this perticular class then try and work out the pace of the race then the price have not been doing it for long this way but results are better than i used to get apart from when i did my own speed figures but i did them when i was unemployed so don’t get the time to do them anymore being at work at this moment in time
The draw is the first thing i look at see if there is a bias at the track then look to see if any have had a good rating figure i usually go by Raceform update see who has won at distance and on the going and how many times then check out if the horse has ran well in this perticular class then try and work out the pace of the race then the price have not been doing it for long this way but results are better than i used to get apart from when i did my own speed figures but i did them when i was unemployed so don’t get the time to do them anymore being at work at this moment in time
Very good point and something that i left out. Also, to add to that, there are certain courses in my opinion where you just need to be on the rail. Chester is one of those tracks in my opinion. Get a draw on the rail at Chester and your chances are improved dramatically in my opinion.
with virtual racing in the shops, anything with a football related name generally returns a profit over time
I take a lot of things into consideration, most of which has been mentioned already, but I especially look out for the placing of horses in a race (how far the horse has had to travel, why this particular race, step up in trip etc.) and course form.
I take a lot of things into consideration, most of which has been mentioned already, but I especially look out for the placing of horses in a race (how far the horse has had to travel, why this particular race, step up in trip etc.) and course form.
That is a good point Friggo.
I.e. if a trainer has travelled ‘x’ amount of miles for 1 race, etc… same with jockeys.
For me the most important thing I look for is class, the class of the horse. How it is measured is up to you, but find a reliable method that has a proven track record. Class and form are interwoven so it is impossible to have form without class as the class dictates the worth of the form. To have worth it doesn’t have to be winning form. but winning form with worth is obviously a bonus.
Distance, going, type of course for me are also reliant on class, can the horse perform in this class? A horse wins a weak race on a course and it is classified as a C&D winner, why assume it can repeat the performance when stepped up in class?
Good class horses conform to their profiles in a far more reliable fashion the an average horse. Trainers are more inclined to look after these horses, and not run them in known unsuitable conditions. That is apart from being dictated to by certain good races, always being run on a particular course.
So in a word the most important thing I look for is CLASS.
Be Lucky
I just simply read the Racing Post, has virtually any information any punter requires, still hasn’t made me a successful punter but I do have my good days. The one thing thats missing is inside knowledge of a trainers mind, ie wether the bloody horse I singled out is even off a yard.
I’ll go along with Mtoto that essentially it’s Class that’s the key factor.
But, when on-course, and betting in maiden races (particularly 2yo events) and NH Flat races then looks and fitness are the key factor, backed up by breeding and stable record.
Rob
1 inside information
2 distance/going/form
3 stable form
4 class/race
5 breeding (maiden races particularly)
6 course/race (only in ruling out for any interest)1 if you get it, 2 or 5 as appropriate, 3 all the time, 4 sometimes, 6 as appropriate
The type of race is all important for me. There are only certain races I will bet in regardless of anything else. You have to do what gives you optimum chance of reward.
The class of a horse is a major factor it has to be.
People list things as having to be in favour before having a bet : form, ground, trip, jockey, days since last run, track, draw, head gear, class of race, size of field, blah blah blah
but realistically how many times does everything come into favour like that? In reality it doesn’t very often and if / when it does you’re not going to get any price.
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