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An interesting renewal and strong representation from the classic generation with the first 3 home at Epsom running.
Bible Belt was well beaten in the Rogers Gold Cup earlier this season and although her recent run was better she still has plenty to find to trouble most of these.
Shareta finished a fine second in the Arc last season but her most recent second at Saint Cloud reads even better with the first and fourth winning at the highest level since while Galikova ran well over an inadequate trip on Sunday.
Wild Coco won well over 14f after a long absence at Goodwood, with no obvious pace in the race she would want to make use of her superior stamina.
Coquet has not been seen since having a rough passage in the Oaks, prior to that she had been progressive. She needs to progress further to be involved here.
Shirocco Star would not be winning out of turn but she will probably find one or two in front of her at the finishing line again.
The Fugue won well last time dropping back in trip. A truly run 12f probably stretches her stamina though she may have benefited from a short break after 4 runs in 6 weeks up to the Royal Meeting.
Was avoided the skirmishes a Epsom, but got badly hampered in the Irish Oaks. She finished well in the Nassau and may reverse placings over the longer distance.The Fugue won the Nassau well but Izzi Top reversed form with Timepiece at Deauville on Sunday so there is a question mark over the reliability of that form. On a line through Timepiece and Galikova, Shareta would have a chance against The Fugue at 10f, over the extra distance the French filly has even stronger claims. Despite her lack of a recent win, she looks better value than John Gosden’s filly.
Nice analysis, EF.
There’s no obvious pace in this race, but Shareta has led in recent contests where, like today, it has attracted a small field. Her only encounter with ground this quick came in the Japan Cup where she finished a respectable seventh. I wouldn’t read too much into that race because it came at the end of a long season and her trainer has always insisted that she wants quick ground.
Unlike our leading fillies – The Fugue, Was and Shiricco Star – who have been very active this season and endured hard races, the french filly comes her after a two month break and fresh by comparison.
The major worry seems to be her lack of success, with only three wins and none at the highest level.
I submitted a post prior to the Nassau and rated this crop of classic fillies higher than their predecessors. The likes of Wild Coco and Bible Belt, although solid and admirable, certainly have their work cut out trying to concede 10lb WFA to four very good fillies.
They crossed swords at Epsom, which was a fairly unsatisfactory race, where The Fugue and Coquet met with interference – the latter appeared most unfortunate. Always hard to gauge just how ‘unlucky’ a horse was and I treat hard luck stories with a degree of caution, but Coquet is open to any amount of improvement and comes here fresh. She is certainly the proverbial ‘dark horse’ in this field, but her trainer isn’t in the best of form.
Her stablemate, Shirocco Star, will make up into a lovely 4YO, but on all known evidence another familiar racing term ‘normally finds one too good’ applies to her this year. She deserves to land a big prize soon, and no one would begrudge her victory this afternoon on a coure that should suit, but the same could be said about all of this high class field, particulary York scorer, The Fugue.
A beautiful, strong travelling filly who thrives on fast ground, she has fulfilled her obvious potential after an eye-catching run at Newmarket. She suffered a rough passasge at Epsom and didn’t enjoy the soft ground at Ascot, but showed her class when freshened up for Goodwood. The form has worked out well with Timepiece running a big race in a strong renewal of the Prix Jean Romanet. It should also be noted that Izzy Top, who was far too free at Goodwood (and Buick’s selected ride) also ran well to finish second, but the Henry Cecil-trained mare is a solid yardstick.
The trip isn’t a concern after how well she finished at Epsom and York is certainly the right track to bring out the best in her on fast ground. The yard is in good form and she is sure to go well.
Was is tough and will appreciate this return to twelve furlongs and fast ground. She doesn’t do anything quickly and won’t be too far off the pace, but The Fugue – and arguably Shirocco Star for that matter – appear more progressive and it would be something of a surprise if she reversed Nassau form.
Shareta could easily steal this from the front, and both Was and Shirocco Star won’t be too far off the pace, but The Fugue looks most progressive, appears to have everything in her favour and gets a handy 10lb WFA from the french filly, which should make all the difference. Coquet is one to keep a close eye on, but could be one for next year.
The Fugue to beat Shareta. Boring, I know!
Shirocco Star is 9/1. She finished 1/2l in front of The Fugue at Epsom (when the Gosden filly was thought to be value for a lot more following interference going up the hill).
At Royal Ascot The Fugue was sent off 5/2f ahead of Shirocco Star at 7/1 in the expectation she would turn Epsom form around. She did but only by a shd – and it could be argued Holland went too early on Shirocco Star setting it up for the closers.
Doea a shd decision really justify an even bigger gulf in their odds today than at Royal Ascot (7.5 pts instead of 4.5 pts).
Putting it another way, am I missing something? Especially as Shirocco Star turned around Royal Ascot form with the winner in the Irish Oaks, ridden with more restraint. With Richard Hughes aboard today I am expecting greater restraint so the 9/1 has to be a decent e/w value bet?
13/2 about The Oaks winner, Was, seems a daft price and 12/1 about Coquet seems even dafter. Coquet could well have won her 4th race on the trot at Epsom but for an appalling passage. Knocked back to last with two to run, she still got within 6 lengths of winning on her first attempt at 12f (previous 2 races over 8f and 10f).
I’ll be backing her and Was who has valid excuses since Epsom and is simply too big a price here.
I don’t believe The Fugue was anything like as unlucky as many believe in The Oaks – bumped, yes, but it happened early and she lost very little ground off a slow pace. Ten furlongs might well prove her best trip and I also believe she might not be altogether straightforward.
Joe
Coquet missed an important piece of work in the run up to this and her trainer said she will probably need the race.
I had 25/1 about
The Fugue
in the Oaks.
Left me swearing at the TV. Got it back and a bit more in the Nassau. Showed a terrific turn of foot at 1m2f, despite a fairly slowly run race… Which favoured the leader Timepiece and is the reason for the form being turned around in France with Izzi Top. Am sure The Fugue "stays" 1m4f from the Oaks, but was so impressive last time out. This is likely to be a different test than Goodwood.I backed
Shereta
@ 7/2 (R4) last night as my main bet (better value) and saved on The Fugue @ 7/4 (without R4). They seem to be the class horses in the race… Shareta is one of those "hasn’t won a top class race" horses. Her placed efforts are better "form" than many Group 1 winners. As others have said, may get the run of the race.
Although have also got a saver on
Bible Belt
@ 22/1 (just a bit of value). She seems to be coming to form and has pace if it came to a sprint.
Having said all that, I still have The Fugue as the best chance of winning. Prices on Shereta and Bible Belt have gone, so if betting right now it would be The Fugue.
Coquet
looked interesting at the price on unlucky Oaks run, but don’t like the negative vibes from the stable which (as Bos says) isn’t in good form.
Was
won that Oaks, but the form is muddling with several not getting as a run and looked a lucky winner. This should suit better than the Nassau and would’ve done better in the Irish Oaks without Murtagh cutting her up. However, this is a third run in quick time and I think
Shirrocco Star
and Was are very well matched. Can’t really see them winning. Poor form of Morrison also applies to the latter. Both fillies are consistent, but that consistency suggests they’re not improving.
Value Is EverythingShareta seems short enough given her Gp 3 winning form. If she had not been 2nd to Danedream in the Arc, I think her odds would be bigger than they are. She also falls under the little known, but so far 100% successful, theory of never backing a horse whose name is an anagram of Arsehat.
Johnny G was adamant that the Fugue stays, citing trouble in running and the ground as reasons for her failure at the trip so far. He admitted that 1m 2f might be her optimum though. If I can get 2/1 I will back The Fugue, if not, I’ll just watch the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Fugue to win for me, but each-way on Shirocco Star seems like the best bet out-there.
Shareta seems short enough given her Gp 3 winning form. If she had not been 2nd to Danedream in the Arc, I think her odds would be bigger than they are. She also falls under the little known, but so far 100% successful, theory of never backing a horse whose name is an anagram of Arsehat.
The more I read your posts the more I like you Stevie!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Well done to those who backed Shareta. Got the forcast round the wrong way!
Did the rain make all the difference come 3:40?
An interesting renewal and strong representation from the classic generation with the first 3 home at Epsom running.
Bible Belt was well beaten in the Rogers Gold Cup earlier this season and although her recent run was better she still has plenty to find to trouble most of these.
Shareta finished a fine second in the Arc last season but her most recent second at Saint Cloud reads even better with the first and fourth winning at the highest level since while Galikova ran well over an inadequate trip on Sunday.
Wild Coco won well over 14f after a long absence at Goodwood, with no obvious pace in the race she would want to make use of her superior stamina.
Coquet has not been seen since having a rough passage in the Oaks, prior to that she had been progressive. She needs to progress further to be involved here.
Shirocco Star would not be winning out of turn but she will probably find one or two in front of her at the finishing line again.
The Fugue won well last time dropping back in trip. A truly run 12f probably stretches her stamina though she may have benefited from a short break after 4 runs in 6 weeks up to the Royal Meeting.
Was avoided the skirmishes a Epsom, but got badly hampered in the Irish Oaks. She finished well in the Nassau and may reverse placings over the longer distance.The Fugue won the Nassau well but Izzi Top reversed form with Timepiece at Deauville on Sunday so there is a question mark over the reliability of that form. On a line through Timepiece and Galikova, Shareta would have a chance against The Fugue at 10f, over the extra distance the French filly has even stronger claims. Despite her lack of a recent win, she looks better value than John Gosden’s filly.
Another great piece of analysis EF with the right result as well! Well done me dear!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Well done to those who backed Shareta. Got the forcast round the wrong way!
Did the rain make all the difference come 3:40?
Maybe I am wrong but I don’t think The Fugue would win many war medals. She seems one of those horses who looks good when everything drops right but falls short when the going gets tough. She was either outstayed or out-battled today and I would think it folly to keep chasing 1 1/2 mile races, as their are better animals out there than today’s winner (no disrespect Arsehat)
Shirocco Star, for all her great placed efforts, still has only a Four Grand Newbury Maiden in the win column. Hughie Morrisons other runner is still reported as unsighted by the judge at the time of writing.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done EF and Ginger. Coquet beaten a mile – too poor a performance to blame on fitness alone. I hear now she missed more than one piece of work and had not come out of The Oaks well – seems an odd decision to run her at all in such a competitive race.
Was battled hard but is just not quite good enough. The Fugue looks to need things her own way and the 10f trip.
I wonder do we discount continental horses who come over here and win.After all yesterdays winner was second in the Arc to Danedreasm who recently won the King George.Considering the Arc result that puts the Fugue in very good company. Did anyone really expect her to frank her own form at the expence of the Arc?
Left me swearing at the TV. Got it back and a bit more in the Nassau. Showed a terrific turn of foot at 1m2f, despite a fairly slowly run race… Which favoured the leader Timepiece and is the reason for the form being turned around in France with Izzi Top. Am sure The Fugue "stays" 1m4f from the Oaks, but was so impressive last time out. This is likely to be a different test than Goodwood.
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