- This topic has 57 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Only one horse for money this morning and that’s Coronet. The Gosden horse is generally 4/1 now.
Sea Of Class is a Sea Of Red on Oddschecker and 7/4 in places.
Magic Wand is red across the board as well.
Laurens is reasonably steady at about 4/1.
I can’t fathom people who are backing Coronet this morning at 4/1 and taking her into 7/2, which there is more of on the boards now than there is 4’s, when they could have taken her at 6/1 yesterday?
It’s obviously smart punting to minimise the stake needed to win the same amount and decrease the overall risk, so why not get on at 6/1, when you may end up looking at half those odds by the off? Ante-Post ends the day before the race, so if you’d backed Coronet yesterday and she comes out you get your money back.
Is it just people deciding to follow the money, rather than do their own studying?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s obviously smart punting to minimise the stake needed to win the same amount and decrease the overall risk, so why not get on at 6/1, when you may end up looking at half those odds by the off? Ante-Post ends the day before the race, so if you’d backed Coronet yesterday and she comes out you get your money back.
Is it just people deciding to follow the money, rather than do their own studying?
Steve, it doesn’t take much money to move the markets overnight. Bigger punters won’t be allowed their stakes at the 6/1. Punters with restrictions will not be able to avail of overnight prices. Some have to head to the exchange, which moves the price anyway, as lets be honest, bookies follow betfair.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Suspect it’s just that not everybody had done their studying yesterday, Steve. So didn’t know who was their bet until now. Although having said that, I was too greedy! Yesterday 6/1 was pretty much across the board and therefore thought 13/2 would be available this morning. By the time I got up Coronet was down to 11/2. Good job the large slice was on @ 8/1 ante-post.
Agree, Coronet is no longer value. My 100% book is:
Sea Of Class 15/8
Laurens 100/30
Coronet 9/2
Magic Wind 10/1
Eziyra 12/1
Horseplay 16/1
Bye Bye Baby 80/1
Flattering 400/1Laurens and Horseplay are currently imo worth bets @ 4/1 and 28/1.
Value Is EverythingThis is an interesting topic, Steve.
May be not Coronet, but there are some horses where imo the price shortening actually helps pinpoint it as value. eg Magic Wand showed plenty of promise in the Ribblesdale – shaping as if capable of better. Then ran poorly in the Irish Oaks and found to have a dirty scope. If she’d come directly from Ascot to York then 11/2 would imo have been a bloody good price, possibly even 9/2. However, because of that run at the Curragh I’d want better than 10/1 as it stands right now. However, if there was significant money from current 7/1 down to 11/2… Then market support is often a good indicator of fitness and (if I hadn’t already had three bets on the race) would’ve thought seriously about putting a saver on Magic Wand @ 11/2.Similarly, in the Galtres with the favourite not running since May I would’ve been totally against Lah Ti Dah had she been weak in the market, despite being clear on ratings. As it is I took a saver bet @ Evens once seeing a shortening pretty much across the board.
In the Lowther, before the market started I’d have wanted 3/1 to take a chance on Fairyland’s fitness and only 15/8 available yesterday. But on her best form 6/4 would be a good price. So had she shortened to say 7/4 this morning I may well have backed her. As it is at the moment has lengthened to 9/4 which suggests Coolmore are less confident of her being 100%. That could change by off time. Bookmakers keep a few punters on their books that have good records when betting a certain trainer (eg O’Brien) often only taking one of this list to back an O’Brien horse for the price to shorten. Tipping the bookie off what’s fancied. Occasionally there’s an on course plunge; but at the moment it’s fairly obvious the AOB “faces” are not playing!
(Obviously if shortening too much there will be a time when it will no longer be value).
Value Is EverythingYep + partly my point in response as well- overnight money for a lot of horses means nothing…Fairyland drifted overnight due to the general public punters being uncertain of her wellness.
She shortened nearer the off when the bigger spenders got involved i would think?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sea Of Stars has done little wrong, but she’s short enough for me and seems easy enough to back this morning.
You just know that you’re going to get a good run out of Laurens, she’s as genuine as they come and if
she sees out the trip she will be involved in the finish. I’m hoping that I’ve stolen a few points on the
market, along with quite a few in here, as I took Coronet at 8s a few days back (in the ante post thread). She was on a hiding to nothing last time out against Poet’s Word and Crystal Ocean, but this
is more realistic and thankfully Dettori is back racing today. She has a decent shout
Ah, what class she has.
Wasn’t worried for second and can’t believe she’s gone off 7/4.
You can’t argue with that from Sea Of Class, she’s let the Ballydoyle bunch sucker themselves and picked them off easily. I had said after the Irish Oaks that she could establish herself as the best of her generation and she’s done that but the original 5/4 didn’t appeal to me.
Coronet each-way at 8/1 was a small help but not for the first time she has lacked that tactical pace and then run on steadily for the crumbs.
Magic Wand has probably added another figure that looks like her average figure and nothing like the Ribblesdale one, the ground was no excuse today.
It’s getting weird seeing William Haggas collecting these big races. For two years I had forgotten what he looked like despite the distinctive, if rare, smile.
Well done the Sea Men, if I can put it that way
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sea Of Stars has done little wrong, but she’s short enough for me.
If it were SEA OF STARS we would all have been on Big G
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Despite being several £’s worse off than I was 15 minutes ago I enjoyed that very much. A superb performance. Well done all who backed her.
Sea Of Class – Class.
Coronet ran as well as she has – beaten by a better filly.
Eziyra ran well, possibly a personal best.
Horseplay ran as well as could be expected, may well do better in a stronger run race or further – Park Hill?
Magic Wand wasn’t far behind her best, just hasn’t progressed.
Laurens was a bit keen taken on up front (as she was in the Diane but this was over further – didn’t stay.Well done Charles and MOM. These 3 year olds aren’t a bad bunch.
Value Is EverythingSimply not Laurens’ trip today. It was always going to be hard to tough it out against proven stayers in a race where the O’Brien runners would be going like the clappers.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The finishing speed today was 105%. They went very steady. Laurens didn’t stay and/or wasn’t good enough
No reason why Sea Of Class should not give the Arc a go but 5/1 is too skinny for me. She’s beaten Coronet well enough but Laurens did not run to her form there and I would want better than 5/1.
I swear these TV presenters are paid to have gushing orgasms every time ANY horse wins. It’s Prozac TV.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.