Yorkshire Oaks 2018

[KevMc]

Magic Wand ran well, came with her run and just got tired to my eye.

SOC is some filly, especially on quick ground in a single digit field. So basically everything the Arc probably won’t be Still, she brings a top drawer angle to the race and I’m looking forward to it already.

LTD going Leger would be some fly in the ointment of that race.

[stevecaution]

Jack, I give up.

The fact remains that if you take Magic Wand’s Ribblesdale figure away. There is nothing to suggest she is top class.

Coronet is what she is but she’s not Arc calibre. That is a tenuous form horse to build an Arc case on. We will see at Longchamp and all that it’s not a vintage year, she will find it a lot tougher than the Yorkshire Oaks was.

I would agree that Cracksman at full tilt would destroy Sea Of Class but that has to be a big if. Certainly soft ground would be a major problem for Sea Of Class and that makes her poor value at her odds.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Laurens’ trainer said he had never had her better coming into the race. She was said to be in the form of her life at home.

In the race itself Laurens was poised in the perfect spot, sitting in Magic Wand’s shoulder, ready to pounce but when she was asked, she couldn’t go on. Laurens tried her best to battle for half a furlong but in the end she has not just been claimed by the closers, who would finish 1-2 but has also been passed by those who were never really contenders and, importantly, from being on leader Magic Wand’s shoulder, she has finished 4 lengths behind her, despite that filly having been passed by four others in the closing stages.

When you are weakening relative to a fading rival, you definitely haven’t got home:-

Race replay:-

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Gingertipster]

The fact remains that if you take Magic Wand’s Ribblesdale figure away. There is nothing to suggest she is top class.

The Ribblesdale figure was not “top class”, I don’t think anyone said it was?
Some people were backing MW because they thought she could improve in to a Group 1 horse.
Were you not saying earlier that Magic Wand is NOT GROUP 2 CLASS, Steve?
This is what you said earlier:

It’s quite tricky to tell if a horse just can’t act on soft, or whether it’s the stamina element that fails them.

If we look at all of Magic Wand’s runs on Racing Post figures, they read as follows:-

61, 80, 103, 99, 114, 99

The Ribblesdale run sticks out like a sore thumb, and if we look we see two identical runs of 99 either side of the Ribblesdale. The ground was very different on the two occasions, so how can we explain the two identical ratings?

The Epsom Oaks was timed 5.89 seconds SLOW but the Irish Oaks was only 2.04 seconds SLOW, so it was hardly the slog that the Epsom race was.

Magic Wand has a good bit to find from the Curragh and although the faster surface at Ascot may have been a help, it might partly be due to Wild Illusion not lasting home (again) and the fact that the rest were modest. Third home Sun Maiden was like a bag of smashed crabs next time.

114 is surely a Group 2 rating, and you seemed to be saying she’s at most 103?

Value Is Everything

[stevecaution]

Not sure I follow the sentiments here.

Magic Wand’s best win outside of the Ribblesdale was in a listed race.

The Ribblesdale win is nothing if we take Wild Illusion out. Wild Illusion had had a tough race in the Oaks and probably didn’t stay. The third horse Sun Maiden ran a shocker next time but if we forgive her that race, she was slaughtered by Lah Ti Dar yesterday and the only race Sun Maiden has won was an awful Salisbury affair that has turned out to be abysmal form.

It was crazy that Sun Maiden was 3/1 for the Ribblesdale but 12 length wins are better than viagra for giving punters hard ons, despite the fact that it almost always turns out to be a false dawn.

Anyway, I’ve more than given my take on the form and we will see how the Arc pans out. I will accept it with grace and no excuses if Sea Of Class wins it.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Gingertipster]

No, Magic Wand put up a figure similar to her Ribblesdale rating and nothing like what you describe as her “average figure”.

Magic Wand got a rating of 111 for the Yorkshire Oaks. So the Ribblesdale no longer sticks out. Indeed, considering this week’s performance came off of a poor run in the Irish Oaks (where reportedly scoped dirty) she wasn’t expected to run to her best anyway. Therefore somewhere between 111 and 114 looks fair to me.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

You said something very similar about Pretty Pollyana after the Cherry Hinton.
You’ve got a hard on about Lah Ti Dah and imo rightly so.
Cracksman won the Champion Stakes by a wide margin and you ended up backing him ante-post for the Arc.
Seems viagra is working for you too, Steve.

Value Is Everything

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