- This topic has 57 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Sea Of Class is progressive and we don’t know how good she could be yet. But probably needs exaggerated waiting tactics and doesn’t like use of the whip. For me not the type for a main bet at these prices, 6/4.
Forever Together only beaten a neck by Sea Of Class in the Irish Oaks, but winner had quite a bit more in hand. That said FT is a far more straightforward ride. 4/1 would look a bet had the trainer been in his normal form; trainer form making both she and her stable companions worth taking on. Magic Wind was first string in that Irish Oaks, going off favourite but disappointed for a second time in three starts – no going excuses that time. Other Coolmore runners Bye Bye Baby and Flattering don’t look up to this level and may act as pacemakers/spoilers; taking on prominent runner Laurens.
Laurens has the kind of attitude I love, but is going up in trip and likely to be taken on up front. Can be a little too enthusiastic when unable to lead. That said her will to win – or rather will to be in front – is a great asset in the finish. So many victories by short margins that she’s probably better than winning distances/”form” suggest. Is a multiple Group 1 winner and as genuine as they come. Yorkshire trained running in Yorkshire, bound to be popular on the day. Just got a doubt about her stamina; not on breeding but if as seems likely taken on. Apart from the favourite who needs company, wouldn’t surprise me if on a wide course rivals challenge wide of her, negating that fighting spirit.
One I like at the prices is the four year old Coronet. Placed here behind Enable last year and possibly improved since. Came within a nose of Group 1 glory in Prix De Saint Cloud. That’s not great Group 1 form, but did have Corry Cup runner-up Salouen 1 1/4 lengths behind. Then a little below best last time, 9 lengths 3rd in King George. However, effort chasing two special horses in Poet’s Word and Crystal Ocean; not surprising unable to show her best. Nothing of that quality here. Travelled better than other rivals that day and probably still in form – consistent. Stable in good form. Unless an unlikely runner 8/1 looks too big to ignore.
Coronet 8/1.
Value Is EverythingThe favourite has to be taken on here at 6/4, and with AOB in such poor form with his UK runners it’s easy to put a line through Magic Wand and Forever Together.
Laurens is still underestimated by the market and is a cracking bet at 4’s. I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of her yet.
Coronet is indeed over priced at 8’s, and a good each way bet.
IIRC, Magic Wand had an issue which would allow you to excuse her last run. I think she scoped dirty afterwards?
I thought Coronet was the best horse in this. I know Sea of Class could still be anything, but the 3yo crop doesn’t look stellar. Coronet’s 3rd in the King George and 2nd in that French G1 looks solid form. With her in mind, I think HORSEPLAY looks a massive price at 16s. Oisin Murphy has already been booked and she hasn’t ran for 47 days so this has clearly been her plan. She was a length behind Coronet on her first run after a lay-off, over a trip too short, and then won the Lancashire Oaks when beating God Given (who I’m a big fan of). She can improve again and should love the galloping track.
eight to post
Coronet
eziyra
horseplay
bye bye baby
flattering
laurens
magic wand
Sea of classCant wait for this, id suspect the ground is probably on the firm side for laurens but nontheless she has form on it so no excuses, aslong as she stays and gets close ill be happy for the arc, where the ground will likely have a bit more juice
She might need the run? But Still i wont be surprised if she wins, ill be backing her in this,she would have won the oaks, her diane win although a bunch finish, hasnt worked out all that bad, it was probably still under her optimum trip, she wouldnt let anything pass her that day, could be vulnerable to a closer on the line is my only worry.
The Three 4yos in the race havent a hope giving weight away.
I felt Coronet had an each-way shout in the King George/QE II and she just squeezed in, albeit beaten a long way.
This is an easier race with no classy colts to face and a less than stellar cast against her. I can’t quite recall what John Gosden said about Coronet after Ascot but the gist of it was that he didn’t feel that she had run to her best form by a fair way and if we go back to earlier this year she was running as well as she has I feel, albeit not quite at top class.
Luckily for Coronet, there aren’t really any top class fillies about at this distance and her best may suffice.
Sea Of Class has potential and may ultimately be the best of her generation but thus far that has been the story of her career, the unknown limit of the potential? Her first two wins were nothing special and she was grossly odds-on in the second of those. I think her chances here rest solely on the one race and how strong it really is.
My view is that only Sea Of Class and Forever Together ran anything like it in the Irish Oaks and Magic Wand stank the place out, with Bye Bye Baby also below par. The presence of Mary Tudor in 3rd with her 102 rating coming in begs the question of how she got to within a length and a half of the stone higher rated Forever Together on the day?
For me, Forever Together splitting horses rated 107 and 102 coming in suggests that she ran a fair way short of her 116 mark sporting first time cheek-pieces. The fact she was actually wearing cheek-pieces was an alarm bell to me anyway. How many Epsom Oaks winners have suddenly needed cheek-pieces by the time they went to the Curragh?
I believe Laurens has the best form of the 3YO fillies by some way. A Guineas runner up who then won the Prix St Alary and the Prix Diane. With You and Homerique went on to win races but With You was then unsurprisingly not fast enough to cope with Alpha Centauri while it was only a Group 3 that Homerique landed. Laurens is game and she is consistent but all five of her wins have come by a neck or less and you wonder how often she can keep getting it right on the line. The other big elephant in the room is the trip this time. Can she sustain those battling qualities over the longer trip?
In the end I felt I had to stay with Coronet as the each-way shout at 8/1. I would rather do that than back both her and Laurens as a saver in this instance. If Laurens wins then it will not surprise me, as I have deserted her twice previously and she won both times. I just feel she’s too short a price at this trip.
Sea Of Class is way to short for me, IF she wins this well she’s the best 12F horse of her generation but the case for that being likely is a lot flimsier than the odds suggest.
Coronet 8/1 each way and Sea Of Class as a lay were my ideas for this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As I’ve said before, I was on Sea Of Class at 12/1 NRNB bet for the Oaks and was sure she’d have gone close.
I am on her in multiples across the week and played the 5/1 boosted double yesterday with Stradivarius which I thought was a cracking price.
I went in and had a top up win only single on Coronet at 7/1.
The more I look at the race, the more I feel she can’t go off bigger than 4/1.
Magic Wand seems a bit inconsistent as does Forever Together, whose only win was in the Oaks. Forever Together is out but her form ties to enough of the participants in the race. O’Brien is in grim form as well, less than 10% and that’s Red Alert for his stable. In contrast John Gosden is Red Hot on 33% at the moment.
Sea Of Class was a rare Classic win for William Haggas after a period of limited Group 1 success and only the one race win gives her any reason to be anything like as short as she is. To me, that one race looks dubious enough to oppose her here.
William Haggas is in fine form, but he always seems to be mopping up races at places like Thirsk in the chaff end of the game.
I could see Coronet second favourite here and I expect that if Laurens goes on at a good pace it will suit the Gosden filly.
11/8 looks way short on what Sea Of Class has done and I can’t have Magic Wand at all with the O’Brien form.
Coronet 7/1 on the nose seems much better risk/reward to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Magic Wand seems a bit inconsistent
I would argue she’s very ground dependant and that’s all. When she has her conditions she has shown a very good level of form. Her last run she was obviously one of the earlier ones in the stable to have been affected by the virus. Granted, that would put you off slightly tomorrow i’d have thought too until further evidence!
I can see the appeal of Coronet and open company G1 form, she has been thereabouts vs a better standard of horse than there is on offer tomorrow (minus Sea Of Class who we don’t actually know how good she is). The worry i have is she’s a tricky mare, albeit one who looks a bit more mature this year. She does have a high headcarriage.
Eziyra is very interesting and shes 12/1. This mare returned to action with a decent enough win against race fit horses, albeit, very standard G3 rivals at best. The interesting thing with her is she’s relatively lightly raced with 9 starts + her run at the Curragh she actually finished ahead of Coronet. Now the difficulty with that form is they were all really racing to place behind Enable. Eziyra sort of plugged on in that race from being mid pack, whereas, Coronet was held up for her late effort which won her the Ribblesdale. Coronet was certainly staying on at the finish, but Eziyra wasn’t slowing either- just very one paced.
At the price i think Eziyra might be worth considering at 12s vs current 6s of Coronet.I love Laurens and she keeps being underestimated, i would say of the 3yos she’d be the one to be with at the prices as she has relative unknown feel to her, whilst racing a fair bit, it’s been mostly in France, would she of gone close in The Oaks?
Magic Wand as said above, she will get her conditions, but with the health worry in the yard, it would put me off slightly. If she’s well, she will definitely go close.
I think Eziyra at 12s is worth a play.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!MAGIC WAND 7/1
For me is the bet i forgive her that last run can show her true form tomorrow
I’m with you Daz, Magic Wand 7/1
Simply the value in the race for me. If MW is fit (which is a big if granted) then she’s a 3/1 poke.
SOC looks quirky and might not like a strong pace over 12F, for all she does look a lovely filly. Laurens is a horse I love but think the quick ground isn’t ideal for her especially coming off a break and first time over 12F.
The O’Brien horses are desperately weak today. Kew Gardens and Saxon Warrior are red across the boards and we’ve gone from 9/4 Kew Gardens 9/2 Cross Counter to 9/2 Kew Gardens 11/8 Cross Counter over the past week. That’s alarming for me.
I wonder how Magic Wand will fare should the two today fail? One to wait on for me.
I suppose inconsistent is perhaps the wrong word I was looking for with Magic Wand. It’s more that I think only her Ribblesdale win is up to scratch from her entire career thus far. Take Wild Illusion out of that race and the form looks a bit ropey. I don’t think Wild Illusion stays and other than that the only decent form boost is the Group 3 win of Sizzling, who managed to record her 3rd win on her 19th start. Magic Wand may not like soft but that could be purely a stamina issue, as she saw Forever Together off in the shorter trial race.
I feel Coronet is more likely to run her race and surely she will shorten and Magic Wand drift if the O’Brien stable have a quiet day today. Sea Of Class looks a classic “Trap” at her odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Magic Wand may not like soft but that could be purely a stamina issue, as she saw Forever Together off in the shorter trial race.
Not sure it’s as easy as putting it down to stamina, she couldn’t get close in two maidens over 1m and 1m2 on either soft or heavy.
She stayed 1m3 1/2 + 1m4 on good ground easily….i think she’s just a very ground dependant horse.Agree, the markets are uneasy towards AOB horses at the moment, who can blame punters though when a question mark can be raised- especially when they aren’t exactly standouts formwise either!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Some of Aidan’s take ages to find their form though and it could be that Magic Wand wasn’t ready to do herself justice regardless of the ground.
It’s quite tricky to tell if a horse just can’t act on soft, or whether it’s the stamina element that fails them.
If we look at all of Magic Wand’s runs on Racing Post figures, they read as follows:-
61, 80, 103, 99, 114, 99
The Ribblesdale run sticks out like a sore thumb, and if we look we see two identical runs of 99 either side of the Ribblesdale. The ground was very different on the two occasions, so how can we explain the two identical ratings?
The Epsom Oaks was timed 5.89 seconds SLOW but the Irish Oaks was only 2.04 seconds SLOW, so it was hardly the slog that the Epsom race was.
Magic Wand has a good bit to find from the Curragh and although the faster surface at Ascot may have been a help, it might partly be due to Wild Illusion not lasting home (again) and the fact that the rest were modest. Third home Sun Maiden was like a bag of smashed crabs next time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Ribblesdale run sticks out like a sore thumb, and if we look we see two identical runs of 99 either side of the Ribblesdale. The ground was very different on the two occasions, so how can we explain the two identical ratings?
The Oaks in my opinion she has ran below par as she doesn’t handle the ground.
The Irish Oaks she was found to have a runny nose, and quite clearly wasn’t at her best that day.
That would be my takes on the runs where she achieved 99- The run at the Curragh she was miles off it, she wasn’t far off last which had a rating of 94.
I will take her on tomorrow just purely on the fact she wasn’t right last time, and she might not be at her best tomorrow because of that. They will of course have had her heavily checked out, but these things slip through sometimes.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!IIRC, Magic Wand had an issue which would allow you to excuse her last run. I think she scoped dirty afterwards?
Might be an excuse, but when so many of AOB’s best horses have been running poorly due to a bug and Magic Wind was proven to have had it last time… makes her an even worse bet for me. Ribblesdale form can be believed excluding the runner-up Wild Illusion who wasn’t at her best at 12f and giving 3 lbs to Magic Wind. MW won’t just need to get back to Ascot form, will need to improve on it to win this. Can only see her drifting tomorrow morning.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.