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Back to min. stakes for me after a heavy loss yesterday. Going for Vita Nova EW @ 5 TO 1
DISTANCE = no problem
GROUND = should suit
COURSE = ?
TRAINER FORM = excellent
Not a confident selection, but had to be unlucky not to win last time out and expect improving horse, really want to hear others dissect this race.
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Paul, you’re missing out the vital elements of class and form, and analysis of the same.
Vita Nova may have been unlucky lto (no more than a few pounds, imo), but that was in a poor gp2 where she separated 2 listed class horses.
Conversely, Blue Bunting has won 2 classics and was probably unlucky in the third, where her jockey reported she didn’t act on the course, and has the clear beating of the other 3yo’s on lto form.
Crystal Capella is a good gp2 horse, but has yet to win a gp1, though with ground and distance in her favour (as it is with Blue Bunting) looks the likeliest threat – as the betting indicates.
With respect, I’d suggest you ignored similar signposts yesterday, and it might be best sticking to minimal stakes until such times you can interpret them better.But Reet, if Crystal Capella is the "likeliest threat" to your fancy, that surely has to give Vita Nova a massive chance having beat CC by 7 lengths earlier in the season!
You might argue that CC needed the run, was giving away some weight and that today’s ground will be different but VN was a very inexperienced horse who is now improving all the time. So if we are talking about FORM, as you were, VN has a great chance on a direct line through CC.
I think you are also wrong to say she would only have won the Lancashire by a few pounds but unfortunately we will never know and it’s a matter of opinion.
I agree that there are similarities to yesterday in that VN is all about what she might be rather than what she is (she works well with Midday) but the difference today is that that is factored into her price. She was available at 7’s two days ago.
Anyway, should be a great race and I have been backing 3 year olds almost religiously in the last couple of months so will probably get burnt as I desert them today!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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Jonibake
That was Crystal Capella’s first run of the season, in a lowly listed race and on the wrong ground. No surprise she improved massively on that when stepped up to her proper class and more suitable ground, subsequently. Her last run – considering distance, ground and slow pace – suggests she’s hardly gone backward since, either.
On the other hand, had Vita Nova won her last race 2l, her rating would hardly have improved from her previous run, and she faces a steep rise in class today – relative to the horses engaged in both races.
It’s all about opinions; I’m quite happy with mine at the moment.In a moment of madness after a bad day yesterday I put it all on Nova Vita .. wish I could change the bet to Blue Bunting. 3/1 sounds pretty good to me for a dual classic winner and Frankie is so good on tracks with a decent run-in. Que sera ..
Reet,
Form is not what grade a horse has won, or how many times.
It is what rating a horse runs to, or would have run to, or is capable of.
Looking at the Irish Oaks:
Why is Blue Bunting so short? Very poor value at around 3/1 even with Zarooni in such fantastic form. She only got up on the line to beat Banimpire a short head who is available at double Blue Bunting’s price today. Wonder Of Wonders just 1/2 a length further back available at 8/1 today; and Laughing Lashes whos jockey lost the whip as she looked like coming through to challenge, available at 10’s today.
Of course Blue Bunting has the best chance of all who come from that race. But (win or lose) not as much as betting suggests. Any way you look at it, Blue Bunting is only just ahead of three rivals here.With so little between four three year olds, are they all very good? Or are they all an average bunch of classic middle distance fillies? If one or two came clear then may be they’re good, but four?
Crystal Capella has argueably the best form in the race. Does not matter that it wasn’t a Group 1. Beat Group 1 winner Redwood by an easy 8 lengths on similar ground and trip. Sure, the Barry Hills horse was not at his best, but she didn’t just beat him, she pulverised him. Also won the Pride Stakes easily. When a horse wins a Group 2 race by so far it is often as good (if not better) than a hard fought Group 1 contest.
Vita Nova would have easily beaten her field last time. A lot better than her rivals that day and still improving. Looking at the three year olds, apart from possibly Laughing Lashes, it is difficult to argue any of them are improving. It’s easy to think a four year old does not have the improvement of three year olds, but Vita Nova has had fewer runs than any other horse in the race.
I’ve backed Crystal Capella at 5/1 and Vita Nova at 7/1, with a saver on Laughing Lashes at 12’s.
Value Is EverythingBest race of the week for me, as has been said not alot seperates the 3 year olds, at the odds I’ve taken Banimpire to be the best value with her never say die attitude think she has strong place claims.
Also on Vita Nova, she was absolutely cruising last time out when her saddle slipped, always like a lightly raced 4 year old so she’ll do for me.
CC would be my main worry she is a classy filly, just hope my two selections improve past her.
Vita Nova E/W 5/1
Banimpire E/W 7/1
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Ginger
I’ve only read the first line of your post (probably full of the same pap and argument for argument’s sake as most of your others), but the day I need lessons from you in what form is, is the day I’ll start hawking clothes-pegs.Followed Vita Nova all season, and had a chunky wager on her last time out when she was unfortunate with he saddle slipping. However Blue Bunting looks absolute rock solid, and in all honesty, should be around Evens. Dancing Rain and Banimpire both franked the form a week on Sunday in Ireland and Germany respectively through their runs, and expect the Frankie ‘flying dismount’ on the Knavesmire this afternoon.
Since this was made an all age affair in ’91
No six yr old has won – yet Stoute holds the record for wins (9)
As we all know Cecil won it last year and bids for a repeat – 6 4yr olds have done the bis compared to 2 aged 5.
In that time the 12 3yr olds have come home in front…
oh no! – I’m starting to morph into Big Mac!
Just thought I’d throw this out there as it has nothing to do with discussing form!
It might be interesting to see how the numbers play out…
‘Crystal’ has course form x2… track/going suits…
‘Vita’ has done her winning going the other way and last time finished in front of ‘Dorcus’ who ran well in France when ‘Glorious’ flopped as fav.
They weren’t top notchers so the question is how do our stayers compare to theirs in that respect?
Frankie said that he had to try everything to get ‘Blue’ to go and win in Ireland… pulling out wide was his last option – so is she straight forward?
As said the blanket covered the 3yr olds… take your pick people!It’s raining so hard in London that I lost my satellite connection so only listened to the race! Sounds like a cracker and my ew almost landed by VN. Those 3 year olds though hey!!!
What happened to Crystal Capella Reet??????!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
It’s raining so hard in London that I lost my satellite connection Those 3 year olds though hey!!!
What happened to Crystal Capella Reet??????!Same here… but the picture came back just before ‘WOW’ done her little jump!
‘CC’ couldn’t defy the stat against – esp with these 3 yr olds!
Big Mac time over… but you gotta feel for the guy…
will that pumpkin head be hanging around him all week?
Enjoyed the race, thought I was going to collect for a moment, nevermind made a score back on the EW
those that missed it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqbrPId6Wx8Yes Paul me too. The
form
between CC and VN worked out almost exactly right despite Reet’s rather unfair criticism of your reading of it. VN beat her 5 and 3/4 lengths this time without the weight concession. Obviously no-one thought to tell CC that this was a group race and not just a listed one.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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Fair enough, Jonibake. If that’s how you wish to interpret form, good luck with it; also to the other ingrate that asked for input.
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