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I believe he would have been in the first four that year.Even maybe in the first three.Unless Buick had the ride.Then down the field ,not finding the opening so necessary to launch his challenge.Had Hughes gotten the ride probably eased off last.Had Fallon gotten the ride he would definitely have won.Not being allowed to do anything except what Fallon wanted.Same for Moore without the total authority of Fallon.But maybe a little silkier.
[quote="Danny
Great Post, with regards to the last part if he’d have won the Derby surely he’d have been retired at the end of his 3 year old campaign maybe only running one or two more races. So in hindsight we were all lucky he never ran.Back to the opening question you say you don’t think he’d win, then were does he finish? Is he placed? or does he end up last like Dawn Approach walking past the post? Native Khan was a close 5th in the race, Frankel was well ahead of him in the Guineas would the further trip see Frankel finish behind him?
Another very good question….
Now I don’t claim to be the greatest race reader around, and I think there are plenty on here who are better.
But, let’s say that Frankel ran in The Derby, and (worst case scenario ?) ran in a similar style to how he ran in the 2000 Guineas.
So they’ve jumped off, and Frankel has gone into the lead at a similar pace to The 2000 Guineas. After they’ve gone 8F, do we all agree that Frankel is still in the lead and probably clear of his rivals ?
How far clear is he ? – I’ll be the first to raise my head above the parapet and suggest that anything within 12 lengths (2 seconds) of him has probably gone too fast and cooked their own goose already.
So, how far behind would something have to be to have not gone too fast, but still be in with a chance of catching him inside the next 4F ?
In The 2000 Guineas, Dubawi Gold was the closest to Frankel after being at the back of the field early on. That would seem to indicate that Pour Moi’s style of running might stand him in good stead.
Frankel stayed 8F as a 2yo on yielding ground effectively enough, and always seemed to take an age to pull up after the race had finished. I don’t therefore think he’s going to be stopping after 8F. Is it also possible that he might get a breather after the turn for home ?
There are of course other factors to consider, such as did he have too hard a race in The Guineas ?, but I think there can be other reasons for the comparatively underwhelming SJP win (idling ? / jockeyship ?). He might also have been inconvenienced by Epsom’s undulations, but I’ll keep it simple for now and assume that he wouldn’t be.
I can’t see them catching him myself.
By the way – Cracking post, Jonibake.
It’s a marvellous thing, hindsight eh ?
I sometimes wonder if Henry himself knew just how good a horse he would go on to prove he was just after The 2000 Guineas.
I mean, a 2000 Guineas winner comes along every year. We’ve been relatively spoilt the past few years, but in many cases The 2000 Guineas winner doesn’t go on to dominate as anticipated. Sometimes they turn out not to even be the best 3yo miler once the season as a whole has been reviewed. At the time, Frankel still hadn’t even faced the older horses.
Did Henry REALLY know AT THAT STAGE ?
Obviously Henry knew what the horse was capable of at home, but it’s on the racecourse where it matters.
I’ve had his book on the shelf since April. Maybe I should get around to reading it. ;o)
I doubt Jonibake of all people thinks Treasure Beach and Pour Moi would have beaten the Best Horse of All Time at any distance.
More likely the dedicated Frankel-ites prefer to use any means possible (including an outrageously poor ride by TQ in the SJP) as reason Cecil was correct to bottle Epsom.
Brigadier Gerard met defeat when he took on the Derby winner.The class of CLASSIC WINNER WON OVER AN ANOMALY.
No I doubt TB or PM would have beaten him PC but then I would never have believed Zoffany could get so close either.
Yes in hindsight it was a very poor ride but remember Frankel galloped at full pace for 8 furlongs at Newmarket. At Ascot TQ asked him for 5. I was there of course being a "Frankel-ite" (I thought we all were now – how can you not be!) and I remember thinking as he turned in "he is going to win this by 15 lengths!" I will always say that I don’t think he was the same horse that day even taking into account the ride.
PC do I really have to use "any means possible" to explain why he didn’t run? There are simple and very rational explanations and they have been fully explained on this and many other threads. You may not agree, fair enough but to use the word "bottle" to explain Sir H’s decision does you no favours.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
You may not agree, fair enough but to use the word "bottle" to explain Sir H’s decision does you no favours.
I agree actually, it was a poor phrase on my part. I withdraw that rather juvenile statement.
Who knows but I can’t criticize connections for not running him in it. However I do feel they should have found out just how versatile he was and stepped him up earlier at 3 and ran him in the KG at 4.
Oh dont get me started!!!!!! All this sycophantic blabber about greatest training performance ever.
That might be true if you consider the job to be getting the horse to the end of his career without exposing him to any real risk of him getting beaten.I have much more respect as a sporting fan for what Animal Kingdom is trying to do at Ascot, for what Vinnie Roe did in Australia, for what St Nicholas Abbey continues to do then I do for the way Frankel was campaigned which was to make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour before the die is cast. And people wonder why the sport is in decline? Frankel may have been the best horse, but Black Caviar was the true heroine.
On the subject of the Frankel staying the derby trip. I would argue that breeding says yes and breeding rarely lies.
SHL
Who knows but I can’t criticize connections for not running him in it. However I do feel they should have found out just how versatile he was and stepped him up earlier at 3 and ran him in the KG at 4.
Oh dont get me started!!!!!! All this sycophantic blabber about greatest training performance ever.
That might be true if you consider the job to be getting the horse to the end of his career without exposing him to any real risk of him getting beaten.I have much more respect as a sporting fan for what Animal Kingdom is trying to do at Ascot, for what Vinnie Roe did in Australia, for what St Nicholas Abbey continues to do then I do for the way Frankel was campaigned which was to make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour before the die is cast. And people wonder why the sport is in decline? Frankel may have been the best horse, but Black Caviar was the true heroine.
On the subject of the Frankel staying the derby trip. I would argue that breeding says yes and breeding rarely lies.
Right on, Sir Harry. This amazing animal could have been a sporting legend if he had traveled to Ireland, France and Breeders Cup. Too much attention paid to protecting an unbeaten record
Right on, Sir Harry. This amazing animal could have been a sporting legend if he had traveled to Ireland, France and Breeders Cup.
Poor old Befair. I am afraid he is a legend whether you like it or not.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Oh dont get me started!!!!!! All this sycophantic blabber about greatest training performance ever.
That might be true if you consider the job to be getting the horse to the end of his career without exposing him to any real risk of him getting beaten.I have much more respect as a sporting fan for what Animal Kingdom is trying to do at Ascot, for what Vinnie Roe did in Australia, for what St Nicholas Abbey continues to do then I do for the way Frankel was campaigned which was to make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour before the die is cast. And people wonder why the sport is in decline? Frankel may have been the best horse, but Black Caviar was the true heroine.
Ok – some strong views here Sir Harry and I doubt from your tone that they are for changing. I should ignore really but…..
Not sure how it is sycophantic to praise the way he was trained. Most judges would say he did it reasonably well.
Also could you explain how they were somehow able to "make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour" – are you suggesting some sort of race fixing?
Also it is surely only hindsight that tells us he had little chance of being beaten so not sure about your "exposed" comment either. They ran him in the champion 2 year old race. They ran him in the first classic. They ran him against his elders and took on the 5 time Group 1 winner Canford Cliffs. They kept him in training at 4. They stepped him up to 10 1/2 furlongs. Then they ran him against a mud lover on heavy ground. Can you honestly say that running 14 times in a career, 10 of them in Group 1 races is tantamount to not exposing him?
Or are you speaking just a
tiny
bit of nonsense?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Oh dont get me started!!!!!! All this sycophantic blabber about greatest training performance ever.
That might be true if you consider the job to be getting the horse to the end of his career without exposing him to any real risk of him getting beaten.I have much more respect as a sporting fan for what Animal Kingdom is trying to do at Ascot, for what Vinnie Roe did in Australia, for what St Nicholas Abbey continues to do then I do for the way Frankel was campaigned which was to make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour before the die is cast. And people wonder why the sport is in decline? Frankel may have been the best horse, but Black Caviar was the true heroine.
Ok – some strong views here Sir Harry and I doubt from your tone that they are for changing. I should ignore really but…..
Not sure how it is sycophantic to praise the way he was trained. Most judges would say he did it reasonably well.
Also could you explain how they were somehow able to "make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour" – are you suggesting some sort of race fixing?
Also it is surely only hindsight that tells us he had little chance of being beaten so not sure about your "exposed" comment either. They ran him in the champion 2 year old race. They ran him in the first classic. They ran him against his elders and took on the 5 time Group 1 winner Canford Cliffs. They kept him in training at 4. They stepped him up to 10 1/2 furlongs. Then they ran him against a mud lover on heavy ground. Can you honestly say that running 14 times in a career, 10 of them in Group 1 races is tantamount to not exposing him?
Or are you speaking just a
tiny
bit of nonsense?
I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. He took in top class Group 1 races, but I don’t think even you or Hammy would suggest he was campaigned with much adventure.
I’d say SHL is talking more than a tiny bit of nonsense Joni, in fact everything he says in that post is complete and utter…
Value Is EverythingYou may not agree, fair enough but to use the word "bottle" to explain Sir H’s decision does you no favours.
I agree actually, it was a poor phrase on my part. I withdraw that rather juvenile statement.
How refreshing for someone to be big enough to retract a hasty comment. Respect to you PC.
Oh dont get me started!!!!!! All this sycophantic blabber about greatest training performance ever.
That might be true if you consider the job to be getting the horse to the end of his career without exposing him to any real risk of him getting beaten.I have much more respect as a sporting fan for what Animal Kingdom is trying to do at Ascot, for what Vinnie Roe did in Australia, for what St Nicholas Abbey continues to do then I do for the way Frankel was campaigned which was to make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour before the die is cast. And people wonder why the sport is in decline? Frankel may have been the best horse, but Black Caviar was the true heroine.
Ok – some strong views here Sir Harry and I doubt from your tone that they are for changing. I should ignore really but…..
Not sure how it is sycophantic to praise the way he was trained. Most judges would say he did it reasonably well.
Also could you explain how they were somehow able to "make sure all the odds were stacked in his favour" – are you suggesting some sort of race fixing?
Also it is surely only hindsight that tells us he had little chance of being beaten so not sure about your "exposed" comment either. They ran him in the champion 2 year old race. They ran him in the first classic. They ran him against his elders and took on the 5 time Group 1 winner Canford Cliffs. They kept him in training at 4. They stepped him up to 10 1/2 furlongs. Then they ran him against a mud lover on heavy ground. Can you honestly say that running 14 times in a career, 10 of them in Group 1 races is tantamount to not exposing him?
Or are you speaking just a
tiny
bit of nonsense?
I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. He took in top class Group 1 races, but I don’t think even you or Hammy would suggest he was campaigned with much adventure.
I’m not the best qualified to contest your’s and other posters views PC, I’ll have to leave that to Joni and a few others, however needless to say I don’t see it that way myself.
Sir Henry outlined the route for his horse well in advance of his races. That surely gave ample opportunity for any other trainer who felt he had a contender to the champion to make their plans and take him on? He ducked nothing as far as I’m concerned.
As for being less than adventurous with his campaign: Other than running the horse over a distance his brilliant trainer deduced was not in his remit I fail to see where else the horse could have gone. Okay, so he didn’t take in overseas races. A bit disappointing I’ll admit, but given Sir Henry’s seriously frail state of health I think it takes a hard man to condemn him for that.
And that’s something nobody ever seems to credit the Warren Hill maestro with. Not only did he engineer a marvellous career for what was clearly -at least initially- a complicated horse. He actually managed that whilst suffering a severity of illness that most of us mere mortals would struggle to battle against in the quiet of our own homes and amongst friends and family, let alone in the glare of the public eye and travelling around the country.
He is as far as I’m concerned a very special man, and he trained a very, very special horse. We are all entitled to our individual opinions of course, however the bilious attacks from a certain few idiots on this board do this forum no credit at all IMO.
You may not agree, fair enough but to use the word "bottle" to explain Sir H’s decision does you no favours.
I agree actually, it was a poor phrase on my part. I withdraw that rather juvenile statement.
How refreshing for someone to be big enough to retract a hasty comment. Respect to you PC.
Agreed
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Frankel never did anything that suggested anything other than a mile was his best trip, and in the race that tested his stamina most he looked ordinary by his own imperious standards.
Why are you ignoring the 10f International at York when he recorded his equal highest RPR (143). Presumably because it doesn’t fit in with your theory?
That’s a bit of a childish assertion.
Why is it childish?
You very obviously stated that "Frankel never did anything that suggested anything other than a mile was his best trip."
That statement is completely untrue because Frankel equalled his highest ever RPR (143 in the 2012 Queen Anne Stakes) when winning the International Stakes.
In the Champion Stakes he recorded his worst rating since the almost catastrophic St James’s Palace Stakes due to a combination of soft going and his jockey falling asleep in the stalls thereby putting his mount on the back foot from the get go, giving a head start to the French horse (remember Ian Mongan looking around wondering where the **** Queally was?).
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