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Vroum Vroum Mag has only won once going left handed and that was a bumper.
Very interesting Mark.
I’ll make a note of that.
What’s the angle here? She’s 1/1 going LH. You going to spin that into a negative?
Thistlecrack looks very improved but is way too short – but Alpha Des Obeaux will make him go
Henderson talking of supplementing Different Gravey adds even more spice to this World Hurdle -I’ve never known one like it for intrigue.
The ‘sleeper’ remains Kilcooley at 25/1 NRNB – cracking bet imo
Taken from http://www.betswot.com/2016/02/18/cheltenham-2016-world-hurdle-ante-post-preview/
The anti-Thistlecrack piece.
This may not be a very popular view, but he’s 5/4 (evens in a place) so we are entitled to pick holes in his form where possible. I’m not saying he’s useless, far from it. Perhaps just a little overrated with an OR of 168 (high enough to win 2 of the last 3 World Hurdles)
What has he truly beaten? Let’s work backwards from his last outing.
The Cleeve Hurdle fell apart. Camping Ground blatantly didn’t stay, Knockara Beau is no threat as a 13yo and Ptit Zig is a failed chaser with his own stamina question-mark at this trip. Rate the race around the 3rd The Romford Pele. He’s no superstar, he was rated 136 over hurdles and 146 over fences prior to this effort. Yes he was put in his place easily but that wouldn’t be difficult for any 160+ hurdler.
At Ascot, the real coming of age day for Thistlecrack, his main rival Saphir Du Rheu didn’t run his race and has since had a wind operation. Reve de Sivola chased home the favourite instead. He turned 11 2wks later and was beaten off 139 over fences next time out. Ok he’s never made much of a chaser, but he still should’ve made a better impression. Deputy Dan was 3rd but he has shown on more than one occasion that an extended 3mile trip is not for him.
At Newbury Thistlecrack again beat Deputy Dan who didn’t quite get home after travelling well. Cole Harden was 3rd but connections stressed afterwards he wasn’t fit enough for much more. The presence of Aqalim beaten 7L into 4th suggests Cole Harden certainly wasn’t at his best and the form is questionable.
Thistlecrack improved enormously in the spring of his novice campaign. However I always treat wide margin Aintree winners with a degree of caution. Especially those who hadn’t been to Cheltenham. When he was beaten at Punchestown it turned out to be a weak race. Shaneshill didn’t stay and a few of the better Giggi horses didn’t run their races.
So plenty of hope for those back
I tried to reassure myself by taking the same view, Charlie, but it ain’t so much what he’s done, it’s the way that he did it!
Mullins has basically ruled Annie Power out of this. She goes either to the mares or to the champion. If she goes to champion then my opinion is that VVM will be in the mares. VVM will run in this if Annie doesn’t go to the champion
Just seen Willie’s comments about Annie Power as mentioned by thewexfordman.
“I don’t think she’s suitable for the World Hurdle so it’s just a straight call between the Champion and the Mares’, with Vroum Vroum Mag a possible for that in the same ownership. If we want to give Annie Power a shot at it, this looks the year to do it.”
So now Annie Power is unsuitable for the world hurdle?
I thought connections spent all season saying she could run in the race if she managed to get a prep run in?
Why even mention the WH if it’s not suitable?
Given Reve De Sivola’s previous Ascot form, and his win at Haydock (which I thought would be extremely difficult for him), I think Thistlecrack’s form is probably half a stone better than anything else. He had Alpha Des Obeaux beat at Aintree, which granted is a very different track to Cheltenham, but I think Thistlecrack is looking like being a banker.
Have to agree with Thistlecrack. Yes he’s short but he’s looked very, very good so far this year. AP should go to the champion, so that means VVM to mares then. That leaves probably only Alpha, Cole Harden, Aux Petit Soins and maybe Saphir Du Rheu to beat. Kilcooley is an outsider of note too but he has to get there first. Alpha is still young but progressing nicely. Cole Harden will improve for a sounder surface and back at Cheltenham but you’re taking a chance there. Same with APS and SDR who are both coming off interrupted preps for this. I think you might get 13/8 or 7/4 on the day as he’s from the Tizzard’s but I can’t see him being beaten.
Thistlecrack at anything more generous than 6/4 will be one of the bets of the meeting in my opinion. He’d be significantly shorter if in the Ricci/Mullins/Walsh ‘team’.
With all due respect to Cole Harden, the 1-2-3 from last year is 0/6 over hurdles since.
I think Cole harden has never either been fully wound up or had his conditions this season Zark . Ignore him at your peril I think.
If you are betting against the favourite then I think there are only two horses to back Cole Harden and Kilcooley.
Must be mad to back Thistlecrack now at those odds, not sure what he beat last time out as the majority were handicappers and the once smart Ptit Zig has proved very disappointing…his only other run at Cheltenham in a 2m4 grade 2 hurdle he was well beaten, so there is a doubt in my mind…I’d much rather be on the proven Cole Harden, More of That or even Saphir du Rheu if he runs at much bigger odds.
I think Cole harden has never either been fully wound up or had his conditions this season Zark . Ignore him at your peril I think.
Yeah that’s fair enough and factors into my thinking, but he barely did anything before either. I’ve fallen for the old ‘repeat winner’ trick many times at the Festival and I’m not about to be fooled into it again by him. I’d far, far rather back Martello Tower at 33s.
My green book has disappeared on this race, as I thought Saphir Du Rheu could surprise a few people after his Wind Op, so now a few quid in the red, but I had to take the 19’s on the exchanges this morning, and happy to have a slight deficit now.
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