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I have just been looking at the prices for this and two players stand out at the odds – both with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds first four places).
Pauleta (Portugal) 40/1 <br>Fernando Torres (Spain) 33/1
Both are regular starters for their respective countries and have fine club/international scoring records.  Pauleta is now Portugals all time top scorer.
Portugal have a weak looking group and could score well against both Iran and Angola.  They had three qualifying games when they scored 5+ goals against weak opposition.  On the minus side they play the winner/runner-up of the Argentina/Holland/Ivory Coast group in the last 16 – so they may only get four games.
Spain have Tunisia and Saudi Arabia in their group.  They play the winner/runner-up of the France/Switzerland group in the last 16 and have every chance of progressing further.
I will be surprised if this pair don’t give you a good run for your money.
Already had a few bob on Pauleta, who looks great value, especially as with a good early start it’s often a case of securing the golden boot early on.
Although, to agree with FSL somewhat, he has been a bit of a let down at the major championships so far.
Hadn’t thought of Torres, but it’s a good call – I will take a look.
My other bet has been on Toni of Italy, a man in form for club and country, and, as Italy play Ghana then the USA, 40/1 for the golden boot is value IMHO
Yeah, Torres on the way to being a great player but oh what a hideously underachieving national team he will feature in. An attacking Spain (they can be more cautious than Italy in tournaments) in the group games would make him a bet.  :soccer:
I only say this because it applies directly, but Milan Baros was a success for me in Euro 2004 @ 50/1 – he always plays, has Koller to bounce off and distract folk, and runs his socks off whilst goal-hanging to an extraordinary degree…seeing him at the same price and playing in a team which knows how to handle tournaments is a big plus, but Italy and the USA are tough starters to get goals in. Still, the USA will make it an attacking game, and Italy’s defensive unit may just wilt as Baros runs them into the ground…top Euro scorer shouldn’t be 50/1 IMO… :soccer:
I’ll have Baros, but Henry and co will have the urge to put on a show, and their group games could well turn into an attacking show…He may well get 2 each against Togo and Switzerland, what puts me off is that the formation France play is often uncertain and that Henry is such a good player he doesn’t mind giving lots of goals to other players! But 16/1 could look huge after the group games are done and dusted… :soccer:
Rooney at 16/1 was the other, but not now…  :(
A topic close to my heart this one, as (no jest) I have managed to pick the Golden Boot at both of the last two World Cups (Davor Suker £20 @ 33/1) and Ronaldo (£40 @ 16/1) and also managed to get Milan Baros (£10 @ 66/1) in the European Championships.
My strategy in the past has been to base my selections on players that have the best international strike rates, calculated as goals scored divided by number of games played. This has served me well.
Having said that (shameless trumpet-blowing) my luck is bound to come to an end this time round.
My selections this time are:
Adriano (Brazil) 16/1 – class act in the class act team<br>Lukas Podolski (Germany) – home team invariably goes a long way, and at 42/1 worth a small punt<br>Luca Toni (Italy) – will hopefully be their number one striker, has been burning up Serie A, and scoring well for Italy in friendlies<br>Milan (me old mate) Baros @ 50/1 – part sentimental, but I think he’s a completely different animal playing for his national side, and hopefully the Czech’s may be a little underrated this year
125/1 freely available!! A mere 40s with Betfred, this nippy trickster may well plunder a few if those old stagers Owen and Rooney fail to get match sharpness. :biggrin:
I’d agree that Pauleta looks an interesting price.
He was top scorer in the French league with 21, 7 more than the 2nd best scorer.
PSG only managed 44 goals from 38 matches, so Pauleta scored approx 50% of them.
(though perhaps the bigger surprise was that the rest of the team somehow managed as many as 23)
Toni also looks interesting at over 20-1 as he fairly banged them in for Fiorentina this season.
Steve
Really like this market as it give syou an interest throughout the tournament, in saying that I have been completely Pony down the years! Like a dew others I have backed Pauleta mainly due to Portugals group looking like a potential goal festand his very good strike rate (Did back him at 2004 where he manged 1 goal)so hoping for more from him. The 2 others I like are Luca Toni and Owen. Toni’s attributes have been covered elsewhere on this thread so I will state my case for Owen. Firstly I have no worries regarding his fitness he is not in the same category as Rooney and has been taking part in training sessions and will play in games prior to the world cup. He is also an outstyanding goal poacher and with his likely partner, Crouch a player who tends too create more than he scores he will undoubtedly be Englands main goal threat he must capitilise in their game against Trinidad as I don’t see many goals in their matches with Sweden and Paraguay 2 teams whose progress in the past in the finals of tournaments has been down to their defensive approach (England have a dreadful record against the Swedes). I’m Scottish by the way so my view on Owen is not tinged with any red and white haze!
So for me its Pauleta, Luca Toni and Owen.<br>
Might have a few bob on Toni and Baros then. I rate Adriano but Brazil share the goals (and starts) around somewhat so that puts me off a little.
Encouraging for me to see Lukas Podolski bagging a brace in the recent friendly (admittedly against limited opposition in the shape of Luxembourg). In particular, he netted from the spot, and with Germany playing in front of a partisan crowd, with lots of pressure on the refs, there might be a penalty or two coming their way.
Those mentioning Pauleta will also be pleased as he notched up a hat-trick, but again against even more limited opposition.
Italy looked pretty ordinary against Switzerland. I hope they can create many more chances in the World Cup or my bet on Luca Toni can be consigned to the wastebin!
Did I see 66/1 about Henrik Larsson ? Thats got to be tempting. With Ibrahimovic, Kallstrom and Ljungberg supplying the ammo and Henrik’s knack for heading goals from set plays he must have a squeak.
The opposition are nothing to worry about for the first 4 games – T & T, Paraguay, England then presumably either Germany or Poland. Trinidad and Tobago are cannon fodder, England & Sweden could take 6 or more goals off them with the strikers getting the majority. If you can get two or three in one game then you only need maybe 3 more to win it. On top of that, the Swedes scored 30 in qualifying so they are a team that creates chances.
Back Switzerland to win their group. Dont be put off by France being prsent. Im Irish and have seen both teams closely in the qualifiers…the swiss were definitly a better team…it just took them a while to realise it.
SHL
Yet to back Baros and he’s now 100/1 but with a slight injury – will replace him with Marek Heinz @ 1000/1 if he starts 1st game. Attacking centre-midfielder or forward can play alongside or off Koller and can take free-kicks (not sure about pens, think that’s Nedved but he’s got a knock, too). Heinz had a tough time earlier in his career at German clubs and may be all out to make a mark in what is probably still one of the world’s best 6 teams. Not a prolific scoring record 6/28 but lots of sub apps and often behind Baros/Koller in pecking order. Chance to shine built into the price and he’s becoming an influential member of the team.<br>Henry had at 14/1.
Good luck all.
(Edited by Interested Academic at 11:31 pm on June 8, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Interested Academic at 11:42 pm on June 8, 2006)
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