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A true great, good luck if you think you’re beating this.
Less of the sarcasm – he’s very good, you know?…
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You’re certainly correct Marble regarding how often we see great Champions. By all evidence to hand we’ve had two "once in a lifetime" horses back to back in the shape of Zarkava and Sea The Stars. It’s somewhat irrelevant that they’re not the same sex as both achieved feats that stand the test of time.
The greatest Champion ever to grace the turf in Australia was the immortal Phar Lap. He achieved the equivalent of winning on four days of the same Royal Ascot meeting when taking the Mackinnon ( Gr1 ), Melbourne Cup ( Gr1 ), Linlithgow ( Gr1 ) and C.B.Fisher ( wfa deleted race ) in 1930. The Saturday prior to that week of success he took the Gr 1 Cox Plate.
A horse that appeared hot on his heels was Peter Pan. Many downplayed his status at the time due to the proximity to Phar Lap’s career. Peter Pan’s trainer and a few other wise old heads thought he was superior to Phar Lap. Interestingly the same jockey, Jim Pike, partnered both horses. Mr Pike was never quoted ( to my knowledge ) as saying Peter Pan was the superior. Both horses were definitely all time greats. Time is on Workforce’s side to see if he can reach such heights.
Below is a fairly accurate summary from one of Peter Pan’s greatest moments compliments of Wikipedia –
In the running of the 1932 Melbourne Cup, Peter Pan, carrying Billy Duncan, was travelling at the rear of the pack when he clipped the heels of the horse in front and fell to his knees. Running behind him was his stablemate Dennis Boy who bumped the champion back onto his feet. From there, Peter Pan can be seen racing past the pack to take out the cup by a neck. When Peter Pan was led in to the winner’s circle a grass stain was clearly visible on his face.
How can we judge anything at this stage other than faster conditions and a better pacemaker than last year? I backed the winner and he hasn’t proven much at all yet. He outclassed a possibly average bunch on the day and that’s all we have at this stage.
From Pompete’s post (quoting Timeform’s Jamie Lynch);
"This marks him down as
potentially
every bit as good as Sea The Stars, who ran to a Timeform rating of 126 when he won at Epsom last year."
Potentially being the key word. No one’s compared his ability to Sea The Star’s yet, but just like it would be silly and hyperbole to say he’s as good as him this early on, it must be folly to say he can’t be as good by the end of the year based on sentiment and the theory that Sea The Star’s types only come along every 20 years. IMO that is hyperbole.
Indeed
potential, potential, potential: the eternal quest of trying to quantify the qualitative – the conversion of visual evidence into numbers
At this stage of the year aren’t all Derby winners ‘potentially’ as good as Sea The Stars, or whatever champion from the past you care too choose?
As Bosranic’s excellent post points out Epsom provides a unique test that some pass with flying colours, others cope with and others patently fail
At present all we know is that Workforce – who is a good looker with a fine action – passed the Epsom test admirably by beating a tiring pacemaker and a host of others who for various reasons didn’t act on the course or at the trip
I’d also question if Workforce actually did show any acceleration at all in the straight, rather than simply stay on at a similar or even reduced pace off the stiff gallop set by the pacemaker while all others around fell by the wayside. The visual evidence of him ‘whooshing’ by the eventual second means nothing as it is likely that horse was slowing markedly. It’s possible Workforce himself was actually decelerating too just less quickly than the second. My opinion that this visually spectacular ‘demolition’ was not all it seemed is reinforced by – what to my eyes – appeared to be the eventual third at least maintaing the distance between himself and the winner and possibly diminishing it
Sectionals and timefigures would tell an interesting tale I reckon
We all like and hope for top-class horses but on the evidence so far, notwithstanding the visual evidence and in particular the very attractive action Workforce has, this is most certainly not the time to press the hyperbole button.
A wholly unexposed horse who could be very very good…or not
The Group 1 test on a conventional track will be the second exam of many he’ll need to pass before he’ll be able to graduate as a ‘Great Racehorse’
I have a feeling the ratings boys have gone overboard on this one. He’s beaten a bunch of non stayers imo. Dont think the 2nd was a major fluke either. The Ballysax will work out to have been a good race by seasons end imo. Sea The Stars first run as a 3yo in the Guineas was better than Workforces second run as a 3yo in the Derby yesterday imo.
Sectionals and timefigures would tell an interesting tale I reckon
His time from the tried-and-trusted end-of-path sectional about 3.33f from the finish was 38.6 sec, which is behind only Galileo and Sea The Stars among the Derby winners I have recorded (the majority since the mid-1960s), and that is despite him running the race up until that point much faster than those other two horses.
The optimum finishing speed (as a % of overall race speed) from this point appears to be about 105.8 (Fame And Glory posted 106). Workforce’s finishing speed was 108.3%. He was finishing strongly, in other words, and could – theoretically – have run an even faster overall time kept a bit closer to the pace.
I make his overall time very good indeed, even so.
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I’ve timed the sectionals between Workfoce and Sea The Stars where the later has still produced the better turn of foot, it’s obvious that Workforce’s stamina won him the race at end of the day were his breaking point far exceeded the rest of the field and may make an interesting St Leger contender.
I’ve timed the sectionals between Workfoce and Sea The Stars where the later has still produced the better turn of foot, it’s obvious that Workforce’s stamina won him the race at end of the day were his breaking point far exceeded the rest of the field and may make an interesting St Leger contender.
I was quoted 7/4 if you are interested!
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I’ve timed the sectionals between Workfoce and Sea The Stars where the later has still produced the better turn of foot, it’s obvious that Workforce’s stamina won him the race at end of the day were his breaking point far exceeded the rest of the field and may make an interesting St Leger contender.
I was quoted 7/4 if you are interested!
Hmmm! you’re sniffing around the same area as me then, how many firms you tried?
Stoute would have 4 weeks to get him ready for the Arc if he did run in the Ledger, what would you say about his chances? that 4-1 could easily be a nice layable price.
Then again you have to look at Manifest who could be running the flag in that race for Khalid Abdulla.
Terribly short to be honest.
Terribly short to be honest.
Correct Mr W, 7/4 at this point of the season is way too short,having said that if he was 7/4 on the day he would be the biggest cert of the year,anyone who thinks
Workforce
wouldn"t get 13/4m didn"t see yesterdays Derby! Having said that i would imagine its all roads lead to Paris now and that has to be the route! Had Conduit not won the St Leger for Sir Michael,it would have been interesting! Somebodys got £30 on at 42"s for the Arc! Some folk must have Crystal Balls!
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He was finishing strongly, in other words, and could – theoretically – have run an even faster overall time kept a bit closer to the pace.
Such a theory is worthless I’m afraid. There has never been any proof that a horse will run faster time simply by being kept closer to the leader pace. Each horse has to run its own style of race.
Then again you have to look at Manifest who could be running the flag in that race for Khalid Abdulla.
Manifest flying the flag in what race exactly? You only mentioned the Leger and the Arc. He can’t run in one and is most unlikely to run in the other. Crikey!!!
Such a theory is worthless I’m afraid. There has never been any proof that a horse will run faster time simply by being kept closer to the leader pace. Each horse has to run its own style of race.
And, with such a sweeping comment, you manage to dismiss decades of research into sectionals, bioenergetics and physics. Nice one.
Yes, each horse has an optimum way of running a race. But all the evidence is that the envelope of optimums is fairly narrow.
They are all racehorses – they are all athletic creatures subject to the physics of the universe – and if they run too slow or too fast early on it impacts on their overall time.
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Crikey you are a fragile one. I’m sorry you’ve wasted so much time on worthless hypotheticals. Whatever conclusions your science may have reached over the years there is one thing for certain – No evidence can or will ever prove that a horse on any given day would have run a faster time ridden a different way. You have no way of proving your point and the exercise would be relatively futile anyway.
Horses have off days, jar up, lose a shoe, slip on wet patches mid race and refuse to strech out, etc, etc, etc. Simply too many variables to consider and not all the necessary evidence would ever come to hand unless you have a talking horse. Ifs, buts and maybes are all you can consider and the aim of such is?
Workforce obviously has potential, but then so did St Nicholas Abbey. I’m pretty sure though that in future, like SNA, he’s going to be priced up like he’s already fulfilled that potential. This year’s Derby looked a poor renewal beforehand and, the winner apart, it looks pretty much that way after the event. The merit of the winning time has been seriously overestimated and the pacemaker’s performance is being elevated to support that view.
I’d classify a 7-length Derby win as achievement rather than potential.
And the quality of opposition doesn’t matter?
The one thing this horse has done is improve in chunks with every run. Topspeed figures of 90,110 and 128 in 3 lifetime starts tell you that. I’d agree with those who feel that the Derby was a big effort and might take a while to recover from though, but the right man has him.
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