Wolves the perfect BAGS meeting

[Gerald]

Haven’t taken any notice of greyhound racing for the past 24 years.

Is Wolverhampton the same as Monmore Park?

[Maxilon 5]

Pointless studying at the moment, Cav. I spent four hours last night – what a waste of time that was! Standing on one leg balancing a flowerpot full of begonias on my forehead whilst singing Jerusalem would have been a more fruitful use of my time than to try and pick value priced winners at Southwell. Its becoming a farce.

Relatively quiet again too. I reckon Friday will be the lowest ever non-snow affected attendance ever. Any spreads?

Gerald, open race greyhound racing is much more exciting than this. You ought to try it some time.

One more thing: I had to laugh at the performance of 4/6 shot Tilt. If that had happened at Lingfield, we wouldn’t have heard the last of it for a month.

[Cav]

Pointless studying at the moment, Cav.

Hard graft at the moment Max. Has been since October. There’s easier ways of turning a few percent but we soldier on . I’d have no interest long term though it were to continue like this. The races are more or less run before they set off.

Sands handicaps shouldn’t be like novice hurdles, should they?

[Maxilon 5]

"I’d have no interest long term though it were to continue like this."

Ditto. Before the AW really took off thanks to Savill and the gang, I was a lecturer and consequently had the summers off (cue boos from the Mail readers). I used to bet from the Supreme Novices to the November Handicap and then spend the winter building up my tank. After this season, I’m considering going back. Not really enjoyed the betting side of things this winter, though hanging round Southwell races in midweek isn’t a bad life.

[Gerald]

Max, I went to Catford a few times, including for the Greenwich Cup, or whatever.

It was a bit of a shock when it closed, because I didn’t notice any prior announcement. Presumably they were worried that a campaign would be launched to save it?

I think I need to go back to the beginning of this thread, and check whether Wolves is actually a greyhound track, or is the all-weather horse racing course.

[anthonycutt]

Ok point taken regarding the bumpers, although you’d wonder how they ever managed in the old days.

Really awful markets on the all weather at the moment. Wolves a perfect example again today. Front 3 in the market mostly below 5 and 6/1, market spot on every time and the overrounds haven’t been abnormal either.

That’s interesting you should bring the markets up. I only had two bets yesterday (both on the 5.30). One e/w each at 16/1 & 66/1. Came second & third respectively & 11/10 favourite getting turned over to the tune of 9th.

[Cav]

Wolves yesterday
SP of First 3 in the market
Handicap – 10/11,11/4,5/1 won 10/11
Handicap – 15/8,5/2,7/2 won 7/2
3yo+ Seller – 9/4,10/3,6/1 won 9/4
Handicap – 15/8,9/4,5/1 won 15/8
4yo+ Claimer – 9/4,5/2,4/1 won 5/2

Ok their not all going to be like that and I did post before the race you mention, but most people on here can read between the lines (ITS A GENERAL POINT I’M MAKING), Anthony. We also have a Southwell regular who concurs.

Cheers for the aftertiming report though.

[anthonycutt]

Wolves yesterday
SP of First 3 in the market
Handicap – 10/11,11/4,5/1 won 10/11
Handicap – 15/8,5/2,7/2 won 7/2
3yo+ Seller – 9/4,10/3,6/1 won 9/4
Handicap – 15/8,9/4,5/1 won 15/8
4yo+ Claimer – 9/4,5/2,4/1 won 5/2

Ok their not all going to be like that and I did post before the race you mention, but most people on here can read between the lines (ITS A GENERAL POINT I’M MAKING), Anthony. We also have a Southwell regular who concurs.

Cheers for the aftertiming report though.

Ok, point taken. I wouldn’t go near prices like that except maybe the 5/2 & 7/2 so it’s probably for the best that I only bet on that one race.

I’m actually gutted. Charlie Smirke has come second five times on the bounce, was down to run at Lingfield tomorrow, I thought it would finally be his turn but he’s no longer involved. Do horses get balloted out at that level of handicap?

[tbracing]

Wolves yesterday
SP of First 3 in the market
Handicap – 10/11,11/4,5/1 won 10/11
Handicap – 15/8,5/2,7/2 won 7/2

3yo+ Seller – 9/4,10/3,6/1 won 9/4

Handicap – 15/8,9/4,5/1 won 15/8

4yo+ Claimer – 9/4,5/2,4/1 won 5/2

Cav, there was no 10/11 winner at Wolverhampton yesterday I think you’ve mis quoted a 10/1 winner mate in Ingleby Star in the opening handicap.

[Drone]

CR/Max

Interested to read you’re both still struggling this winter

Following a losing (and sobering) year in ’09 I resolved to ‘put it all in’ for what remains of the ‘core’ NH season, but really can’t make a go of it at all.

Underlays are winning, overlays getting stuffed: just can’t get the market beaten try as I might, at least not frequently enough to make a profit which is what the whole tissue compiling exercise is about, of course

Certainly not the volume bettors you two are, nor do I bet on the AW but my experience with the steeplechase subset would seem akin to your broader, more representative and – in all likelihood – more statistically robust samples

Not enjoying it at all to be frank, and am seriously considering an extended break

Which goes against the grain as in the past I’ve prided myself on being able to ride out the rough times with confidence intact

Methods do lose their edge as markets change and adapt but mine has held me in satisfactory stead for quite a few years now, so it’s both disappointing and worrying

Pinpointing exactly what it is I’m doing wrong, and thus need to change, is a major problem

If (big IF??) our experience is shared by the majority, presumably the layers are in the fortunate position of reaping hay in winter

[Cav]

Cav, there was no 10/11 winner at Wolverhampton yesterday I think you’ve mis quoted a 10/1 winner mate in Ingleby Star in the opening handicap.

My mistake Tim , but overall the markets bear me out, take a look at Southwell again today.

Drone, in the grand scheme of things Betfair is a layers market, 2% always in their favour. I guess thats why Betfair wont let you lay to level stakes at BFSP, you’d clean out their backers in no time.

2009
Befair exchange price 1 second before the actual off you’d be 2129 points down or -2.22%ROI to a level stakes win bet on every runner (over 95000 bets)

At BFSP, similar, -1983 points -1.97%ROI same number of bets

+ commission, so your half way down the grid at Monaco before you even start.

The average winning BFSP since the end of October is almost 11% down on the average for the previous 22 months.

After a really good start to the year (1st of July for me), I’ve given most of it back since November and I’m just 1.06% ahead after commission for the last 7 months. I stupidly did a bit of "fiddling" in November which cost me 1.3%. My strike rate is rock solid, the prices just aren’t there.

I’m still playing with Betfair money from the previous year and the bank is very much intact, but I want a decent regular second income from this which is not happening at the moment.

Trying to rationalise it, perhaps it the increasing specialisation of shrewd punters on the jumps, the domination of media friendly stables, the unexposed types I like to bet on finding the ground conditions too much with the bad weather, an increase in the number of jumps horses horses with back class being sent to the races unfit, all weather stables having to lay to survive, deeply harrowed tracks, small fields, the increasing influence of the exchanges on results (worrying) etc..etc..

Anyway, I’m happy enough to soldier on till the 1st of July and we’ll see where we are then…

[Maxilon 5]

I am struggling, Drone, on every dimension you can think of.

My plan was simple: make a profit from October to March at Southwell by attending the track, talking to trainers, listening to connections, keeping detailed notes and paddock watching. No away meetings, just the six or seven races. Proper text book stuff.

70% of my bets are made on horses running on the sandpit. 20% of my bets are struck at the other three artificial surface courses, usually on the internet, and 10% are wagered on handicap hurdles. I probably make twenty to thirty bets per week at prices up to 100/1. I tend to chase double figure prices. My bets are mostly in handicaps because of the decent prices on offer.

The shortest price horse I have backed this season was the Camacho stable’s

Erfaan

last week at 11/4. A shocking bet based on paddock looks. My average price is about 10/1. My highest priced win was Greenbelt at 20/1. But that is the only one. I have had around thirty placed horses including

Only A Game

, and

The Cuckoo

last week, both at 25/1. The way I bet (win only, dutching), means that wins for two or three of those big priced horses would have made a significant difference to the balance sheet. Those wins didn’t happen.

I won’t give you the precise stats as they are an embarrassment by any standard of self-immolation.

There are three reasons I think I’m struggling.

Bad Luck:

Plain old ill fortune. There was an eloquent and knowledgeable poster called Artemis here who didn’t believe in bad luck, but I disagree. Nothing has gone right for me. Mick Quinn was gutted in the winners enclosure last week as he had set The Cuckoo up a treat: I felt like apologizing.

Betting exchanges:

As Cav alludes to, and you are doubtless aware, betting exchanges have affected the way the market works. The ability for connections and insiders to

anonymously

back short priced form horses to large sums has changed the way favourites perform in low grade, uncompetitive races.

When I was a teenager, favourites were regularly turned over at all levels. I learned to look for bigger priced runners in the expectancy that connections will wait for another day if they weren’t happy with the odds on offer in the ring. Nowadays, if you can shovel four grand at seven to four on a form nugget like

Harlech Castle

without drawing attention to yourself – therefore risking being closed down – then the horse will run to form.

Cameras, the BHA spotters, ATR and the scrutiny of thousands like us have made a difference too. I’ve been slower than a turning oil tanker to change my methods and I fear that I’m too long in the tooth to change. Lumping the rent on a short priced buzzer just isn’t in me and the story of artificial surface racing this year, as Cav regularly points out, has been about the short-priced horse and acuity of the market.

Proximity:

Finally, I think I’m too close to the material. I’ve been to eighty percent of Southwell meetings since October – missing mostly the Sunday and holiday meetings – and to be frank, I’ve got a bit above myself. I think I know better than the market. I’ve been paddock watching and making selections based on that, which is just stupid. You’ve got to be born in a barn, with manure in your fingernails, straw in your ears and hooves for boots to fully understand that dark art. The more you do something, the more skilled you think you become: That can be a mistake. I do better away from the sandpit where I just use my wits, the Racing Post and the odd bit of old knowledge.

Sorry for the long post. I think an extended break might do me good too, Droney – though that ain’t brilliant for the Levy!

[seabird]

Don’t apologise for that post, Max.

Very frank and eye-opening.

You may even find that writing the post might crystallise your thoughts and get you back on track.

Thanks anyway.

Colin

[Pompete]

I am surprised no one has corrected you Ricky. The public were held in the Hotel entrance foyer until the power was restored about 1.30pm and the stands and bars were opened.

The offical attendance was 404. However, the offical number of Bookmakers standing was 0 (unless this figure is waiting to be updated?).

I’d like to know how the SP was legally returned. I assume the SPRC have rules in place for such circumstances anyone know what they are?

Racecourse Attendances Here

[Drone]

Splendid and revealing posts expected from CR and Max

Duly delivered, thank you gentlemen

[ricky lake]

Happy , I did prefix my original post with appartently , however this thread had revealed some very interesting and frank posts , great stuff all round

For me I recognised at the end of last yr that winter punting was nuts , the aw was in my view inherently crooked and you could not play any jumpers in heavy ground

This yr I left it alone and to be honest I dont regret it at all , the same scenario applies

I have turned to poker which is a good recreational pastime and to be honest thats where all the young guys are playing , if racing is to survive they must get some of the younger guys interested ,,frankly I think thats a big ask

so its vegas now until Mid April , I will try the flat from the Craven and see what happens , but one thing I am certain of is if Cav /Drone and Max are finding things difficult , then you can be certain joe punter is losing constantly ……still good for the levy …

cheers

Ricky

[Maxilon 5]

Thanks Colin, Drone.

Shifting to the Starting Stalls thread.

[Author]

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