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In the 640 at Punchestown, there is obviously a quality field, but i’m not to know who has came out of their races better. I like Boston Bob, but he’s a short price and i’m wondering if he needs longer to come out of his race. You also have other horses in there that have run in the 4 miler, so i’ve decided to go for an outsider in Argocat at 25/1. I thought he done alright at Limerick, and as a 5 y/o he gets the 9Ibs age allowance. If he can stick to the task for long enough, he might just get involved in the finish. The ground shouldn’t be a problem and i’m not trusting the going description. I haven’t checked the times, but it doesn’t look soft or heavy to me. It actually looks decent out there.
Argocat £5 e/w @ 25/1
+£75
Another day, another gold cup. This time it’s Punchestown, and i like Captain Chris at 6/1, and QDLR at 16/1. I wouldn’t have made these selections if the race wasn’t at the end of the season, but i feel they both have chances. Captain Chris has won here before over a shorter trip, and should handle the step up in distance. QDLR has won this race before, and wasn’t quite at home at Aintree. He will have his preferable ground, and in a race where i don’t know what the season is taking out of the field, i’ve taken a spin.
£7.50 @ 6/1
£7.50 @ 16/1£ +60
I’ll give Punchestown one more go as there is probably an opportunity in the 2 miler. Baily Green is a reasonable 9/1, and Benefficient in my view is fair at 9/2. I don’t mind putting a line through races now and again, so getting an Arkle second at that price is obvious to me. I’ll forget about Aintree. Benneficient won fair and square against two of todays rivals in Ireland before winning at the festival, so again i feel as if his price is worth it as the only rival that concerns me is Alderwood. Let’s see how it goes.
Benefficient £10 @ 9/2
Baily Green £8 @ 9/1
+£42
Well that wasn’t much use. When i saw what i had backed in touch i was slightly hopeful, until they hit the final turn and the front two put distance between themselves and the rest of the field. The camera angle was deceitful. Well i never learn my lesson, so it’s back to Punchestown today, for an interest instead of a bet. The way things have shaped up i thought i would have my intended bet on Un Atout for next years Jewson. The trainer can play all the games he wants all season with targets. If it goes it goes.
Un Atout – Jewson Novices Chase £75 @ 14/1
-£33
Many of the 315 @ Sandown appear to be much of a muchness on the face of it, but i’ve opted for Sugar Boy at 6/1. It’s a big drift from what he was this morning, so perhaps the ground is an issue. He seems the progressive sort, and i’m not too worried about the going or the drift. These things don’t bother me. He has a bit of form through my derby hope, and that’s more a something to be concerned about at this stage
Sugar Boy £20 @ 6/1
£-53
315 Galileo Rock £10 @ 8/1….i’m not good when i have Gingeritis, but i couldn’t get this horse out of my mind. I try and stick to one per race as it suits me better.
£-73
These big fields are a nuisance, but i’ve had a look at the 535 at Punchestown and think that Summer Star is worth a go. She has a race in her, but i don’t know if it will be today. She’s bound to be hit by the handicapper at some point.
Summer Star 535 £10 @ 12/1
+£37
Well that was useless. I’m still adamant she will have her day, but i’m not so sure i’ll be on then. Saturday and Sunday have been frustrating. Even finding anything to back has been a challenge. I feel in this mood that i would lose, so i’m gonnae to throw away the profit on something that gives me a fighting chance. It’s all well putting up a few winners here and there, but the mathematics need to improve. Getting any classic winner would give me more than hope in the context of this thread. Toronado done well in the Craven, but i can’t see him beating Dawn approach. Will Bolgers horse get the 12f ? i don’t know but he’s 12/1 for the double and i’m about to find out. If it loses i would have lost today anyway. I think he will win next weekend. I’m fortunate enough that the ante posts have already paid for themselves. If i have any other views on the 1000 guineas i’ll put them up.
Dawn Approach guineas/derby £40 @ 12/1
Dawn Approach guineas/derby £40 @ 12/1
Graeme,you can still get 12/1 with Ladbrokes to win the Derby only mate!! He’ll go 2/1fav after next Saturdays battle Royal mind!
Dawn Approach guineas/derby £40 @ 12/1
Graeme,you can still get 12/1 with Ladbrokes to win the Derby only mate!! He’ll go 2/1fav after next Saturdays battle Royal mind!
I never noticed Gordon. Although now that you point it out, it still may not make any difference, as i’m not so sure he would go if he didn’t win the guineas anyway. He would have to go ‘New Approach’ close at worst. I do think he will he will be roughly the price you mention for the derby after Saturday. I’ll need to look out for a winning distance market. 3 lengths or more sounds about right.I’ll need to look out for a winning distance market. 3 lengths or more sounds about right.
You’ll get 4/1 about a 3 length or more victory Graeme but I’m not bothered if he wins by an inch……So long as he wins! I’m of the opinion that ‘Toronado’ will take them along at ‘Frankels’ pace and that will suit my fellow perfectly,I’ve been praying to the ‘Quapaw’ tribe of American Indians who specialise in Raindancing,my neighbours called the Police when I got a bit carried away with my squaw!
I’ll need to look out for a winning distance market. 3 lengths or more sounds about right.
You’ll get 4/1 about a 3 length or more victory Graeme but I’m not bothered if he wins by an inch……So long as he wins! I’m of the opinion that ‘Toronado’ will take them along at ‘Frankels’ pace and that will suit my fellow perfectly,I’ve been praying to the ‘Quapaw’ tribe of American Indians who specialise in Raindancing,my neighbours called the Police when I got a bit carried away with my squaw!
I don’t think the horse wants too much rain. I suppose you might want some tactical rain to blunt his rivals, but as the horse goes as an individual he will be absolutely fine on good running ground, and i believe it’s that sort of going that will show him at his best now that he has strengthened up. Either way, Toronado is his only rival and he can act on both also, and to me he is the only one that is seen as a threat. That’s my take on it anyway. I wouldn’t want it soft at all !
I don’t really know what else to do with the 1000 guineas. I’ve backed one, but anything can spring from anywhere and win this. I decided that i’d stick to what i’ve backed, and instead of looking for an opponent i had another bet on her for the Oaks.
Hot Snap £22 @ 10/1
-£25
Just seen thread good luck with it mate
While i think DAWN APPROACH will win i think MARS be the biggest danger this horse was number one 2yo in yard last year.Was going to run in racingpost trophy untill bad weather was on course.
Horses like CONDUIT,MASTERY,ARCTIC COSMOS,GHANNATI all won classics after a AW win so i think he be in 1st 3
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