Willow Handicap 2009

[Gerald]

Okay, I’m going to do something controversial. Instead of picking a horse on price, I am going to attempt to pick the winner.

Some of you might have got the feeling that I always diss the favourite, and pick an outsider. Here’ I’ve tried to ignore the odds. For the first time, I have used ATR’s race video library to help me analyse a race, rather than just relying on the form book.

I have allocated a rating to each horse, which I think they can produce over 5f at Lingfield in a fast run race. It will be fast run, because its got both Turn On The Style and Harry Up in it.

OR My guesstimate
109 … 108 … Matsunosuke -1
103 … 112 … Turn On The Style +9
92 … 104 … Ebraam +12
88 … 95 … Little Edward +7
87 … 93 … Haajes +6
85 … 93 … Harry Up +8

Predicted Result
1st Ebraam
1l Turn On The Style
hd Harry Up
nk Little Edward
1/2l Haajes
2 1/4 l Matsunosuke

[halfwaytoheaven]

Tis definitely a classy race, Gerald. I’m really looking forward to this one.

Matsunosuke is a classy performer and seems to perform off crazy weights and is definitely an improver and one of the stars of the AW season in my opinion.

9st13 might be too much for Matsunosuke though, I agree.

Turn on the Style is a real unknown quality for me over 5f. He’s been running over 6f other than in the Southwell sandpit and I feel theres a strong lack of form transferring over from Southwell to the other AW tracks.

With that in mind, I’ve completley removed Turn on the Style from my list! Shocking I know but I cant place him at all. The only fact in my eyes is that TOTS will set off in front with Harry Up and may push Harry Up a little quicker than he would like.

With him removed I have the race ending up finsihing in this order (Slot TOTS wherever you wish of course…)

Approx distances between horses are in brackets.

Ebraam
(2l) Matsunosuke
(1l) Little Edward
(3l) Haajes
(5l) Harry Up

[Gerald]

Good grief! You’ve got Ebraam coming back to form as well.

I thought Turn On The Style is awesome – a 5f frontrunning sprinter who can do it for 6f. He might go, and not come back.

[Gerald]

I was kind about Harry Up against Put On The Style, because I think he has only run over 5f once at Lingfield. (I think he might be down as running twice, but I saw one of them on ATR last night, and they were definitely running on a green surface [edit: as well as in a straight line].)

[halfwaytoheaven]

The more I look at the weight Harry Up is carrying the more I really fancy a place punt on him you know….

Turn on the Style is starting to drift on the machine and that may be due to the fact he hasnt won at Lingfield over 5 (or even been tried over C&D) for a whole 2 years.

[halfwaytoheaven]

Gerald,

I must be slightly crazy but I’m abandoning our selection Ebraam.

I’m on Matsunosuke after watching that last run over 5f again!

[halfwaytoheaven]

And that is another LUCKY change of heart from me

[Gerald]

Well done Halfway.

The pace wasn’t as strong as I expected. The others seemed to wait for Harry Up to come through.

Looks like I totally underestimated Matsunosuke. I was still being controlled by his age and what he had achieved in the form book previously, rather than by how impressive looking his last victory was. (I saw that video about six times, too.)

A guy I used to work for was very shrewd. Whenever competitors met again, he’d always go for the person or team that had won last time. The four who met a fortngiht ago at Lingfield finished in the same order: Matsunosuke, Little Edward, Ebraam and Haajes.

Anyway, I’ll look on the bright side, I got Haajes right. Haajes seems to like 5f on Soft ground with a stiff finish, so I think he is a shoo-in for the sprint H’cap run at Sandown during the two day Eclipse meeting. (The ground will be soft, as it is run during Wimbledon.)

Okay, I’m now off to bed for a couple of hours, and then I’ll glance through Nick Mordin’s website for the past 2.5 years, to see what will be suited by the Racing Post Chase at Kempton next week.

[Author]

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