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Normally the place to start is with lightly raced 4yo’s.
The obvious unexposed ones with progressive form, from the obvious trainers, are Nine Realms (W.Haggas) and Lahaag (J.Gosden). Either of those could could be much better than their handicap mark. Don’t claim to know which one, but my gut instinct is to go with Lahaag.
The next couple are unexposed, with good connections, but have not shown much. Tandem (D.Weld) and Garde Cotiere (R.Fahey) have no form to get excited about, but are both very well-bred, & could be much metter than they have shown so far.
One that has had a few more runs but could still be a big improver is Dream Tune. If he sneaks in, he could be interesting. He contested a few high class races early last season. An OR 91 seems fair based on his autumn form, but they must have thought he was better than that earlier in the year?
A couple that have come out of recent AW trials are Miblish (2nd to Plantuer in the Winter Derby Trial), and Solar Deity, Strictly Silver & Guest of Honour (who all ran at the AW Lincoln trial meeting at Wolverhampton). Strictly Silver has got some solid handicap form, but you have to think he’s too exposed. So imo it’s the M.Botti horses to take out of these.
It’s just an instinct, but imo there’s a chance that a few of the older, reliable & more experienced types may be able to run well. There’s a couple of obvious ones who I’d guess will be prepped for this, they may not be lb’s well in, but they will run solid races off their marks. Somehow, last year’s winner Brae Hill has got in off exactly the same mark, & Captain Bertie is on a mark from which he ran some very good races last summer/autumn.
Think you always hope to find something ahead of the handicapper to win this. At this stage without knowing running plans, my picks are Lahaag 10/1 and Dream Tune at 20/1.
(if I knew or had any idea he was going to run, I’d back Lahaag now at that price)Any ideas ?
Strictly Silver won the trail. Not much luck in this race, but might have a small wager on that
Global Village for me, closely matched with Captain Bertie yet twice the price, will love the ground and had a spin round Wolverhapton the other day.
As àlways this race is extremely competetive and the potential taking on the old favourites. Trends perform well in these big handicaps as they do at the majority of major flat and jumps meetings.
I have come down on 2 and added a dark one from a yard that has served me well and I firmly believe will be a potent force this season. The yard is that of David omeara and the horse is Hit the Jackpot, could be a dark one to follow.
My main selection is Chapter Seven EW and 2nd bet is Lahaag to Win.
Andrew: I am a huge Global Village fan and followed him loads last season as you can see on TAPKs thread. He is well enough treated but my one concern is does he get a strong paced mile? I believe 7 1/2 furlongs to be his best distance. Good luck though and the more rain the better.
This was my bogey race for many years and I finally cashed in when Pablo was successful for Barry Hills.
I think Lahaag has the potential to be decent this year and he ran well enough on soft last time up. He could end up a short favourite if the vibes are good for this typical Gosden contender.
At 20/1 it might be worth an each way on Anton Chigurh who seemed to progress nicely last year. He seems to finish his races well and his tendency to get a little bit outpaced was negated by heavy ground on his last two runs. If it turns into a bog on Saturday, this course winner and distance winner will have several things in his favour that his shorter priced rivals may not.
Only 2 winners over the age of six in the past 30 years puts me off Global Village, with 15 four year old winners over the same period seemingly a powerful indicator.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just for a change the early favourite is withdrawn. Nine Realms is out on account of the ground.
My outside selection Anton Chigurh is aimed at the Irish version now, for which he is 6/1 joint fav at the moment
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Three against the field if racing goes ahead:-
Strictly Silver 11/1
(liked the way he was running on when winning the Lincoln trial and looked like he had more to come)
Shamaal Nibras 12/1
(a decent 3yo who could be an even better 4yo)
Solar Deity
(an amazing price @
22/1
he could be anything if he takes to the ground)
Who would believe that the Lincoln would be under threat because of forecast Snow
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...With the ground set to be heavy we will need a battler so the favs may suffer, 25s EW about Swiftly Done looks very fair and the money will come
Three against the field if racing goes ahead:-
Strictly Silver 11/1
(liked the way he was running on when winning the Lincoln trial and looked like he had more to come)
Shamaal Nibras 12/1
(a decent 3yo who could be an even better 4yo)
Solar Deity
(an amazing price @
22/1
he could be anything if he takes to the ground)
Who would believe that the Lincoln would be under threat because of forecast Snow
I am fairly sure Marco Botti said Solar Deity won’t run if it is soft. Perhaps that is why the odds look so good?
Anton Chigurgh ran in the Irish version and was stone last!! Luckily, at 6/1 he was not on my agenda that day. Very disappointing effort though.
John Gosden does not think Lahaag is well handicapped. Think I’ll lump on it then, if the race ever takes place.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very happy that Graham Lee gets the leg up on Chapter Seven replacing Frank who is off to Meydan with the majority of top jocks, Glee will sit out the back and slowly start cutting them down in the home straight
@ Steve Caution
…Yes thanks Steve I vaguely remember now Botti saying something like that about Solar Deity so will watch my bet on him, still fancy Strictly Silver and will have a closer look at Gosden’s horse.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...@ Steve Caution
…Yes thanks Steve I vaguely remember now Botti saying something like that about Solar Deity so will watch my bet on him, still fancy Strictly Silver and will have a closer look at Gosden’s horse.
Solar Deity is out of the race now, along with Dance and Dance, Arsaadi and Belgian Bill.
Lahaag drew stall 6 again, Captain Bertie is right next door in 7 so that might be an area to keep an eye on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Memory Cloth
is racing off a 1lb lower than his Newcastle success on heavy ground last season. He can be excused four subsequent defeats due to unfavourable ground, distance and surface. It would be no surprise if first time blinkers brought about some improvement from this gelding.
That day at Newcastle he beat last years winner of this race,
Brae Hill
. Richard Fahey’s 7YO is back on the same mark as when he won this event twelve months ago (and second in 2011), acts on soft ground and goes well fresh.
I’m hopeing the pace will be will the high numbers and that
Jack’s revenge can come late to win
I studied the race for ages last night and couldn’t get enthused about many. Lahaag for me and a Don Revie forecast with Captain Bertie.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Best wishes to anyone who found Levitate. Hard luck to those who fancied Global Village and Brae Hill.
Lahslaag was never travelling and that has to go down as a pretty pathetic showing from a stable with as much ammo as Gosden has. I was right about Captain Bertie and Lahslaag finishing side by side though, albeit in 16th and 17th!!
I must be about 1 for 25 in the Lincoln now. No fool like an old one eh?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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