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I still remember Dansant winning this race last year. At the weights he should have won it, but he was seriously impressive that day, and fast as well. He has got to be a real contender for a repeat win, even though he may not have been so impressive this year, yet.
You get the feeling that Scintillo may also have been saved for this one. His 3rd behind Spanish Moon over C+D in the Floodlit stakes is probably the best bit of recent form. Dansant was a few lengths back in 6th that day, although he was returning after a two month break…but he does normally run well after a break? That race looks good solid form, with Re Barolo and Ajhar both coming out & running well in the Churchill stakes last Saturday.
The entries also include November handicap winner Tropical Straight, Lingfield Listed winner Mischief Making, Doncaster Listed winner Les Fazzani, Milan’s full sister Kahara, as well as Young Mick, Philatelist and Night Crescendo,
You have to hope for some pace in the race. I’d be guessing either Ellmau and Judgethemoment will go from the front. Only hope they get declared. This is not going to be easy for Dansant, particularly with a penalty, but on his day, he’s a very classy horse.
This is Young Micks big end of season target after bypassing the November Handicap because of the ground. I just dont see him succeding here – I cant have him on the AW these days and his run behind Hattan last time on the AW didnt really do much to give many of us confidence for this run.
Tropical Strait should go well if taking to the AW (I cant remember if he’s run on the AW before, anyone?) due to the November Handicap success and the 2nd behind All The Good in the Newburgh.
Les Fazzani’s drifting in the home straight worried me slightly last time out but nothing could catch her at that point. She doesnt seem to have been campaigned much at 12f though which is a slight worry as she will be against campaigned 12f performers here.
Mischeif Making has all the form on the AW and is a tempting bet but my option is Scintillo too. As you say, the 3rd behind Spanish Moon is very good form and, with Dansant a few lengths behind on that occasion, is my preference.
Makes you wonder why on earth Ajhar was sent to Lingfield over a trip short of his best when this option was available to him.
That’s a fair enough comment, it probably could also be applied to Bronze Cannon?
I felt for them both at Lingfield, a stronger run race would have suited them much better. Instead, they’ve ended up in a slowish race, and considering that, have probably run very well. I’d be interested to hear the professional analysis of that race. My laymans.opinion is that J.Spencer took them to the cleaners on Yahrab. He’s got away with dictating the race from the front. It’s ended up in an overall time that class 4-5 horses could run quite comfortably (although not in the same way), and the placed horses were milers.
I saw it in a similar way, though I’d be inclined to give the winner a bit of credit. He looks an improved performer at the trip on polytrack and the fact that he is so comfortable on the front end, without seeming to have to lead makes him a pretty decent tool to keep on side in such events and it would be easy to see him develop into a proper Winter Derby horse.
I do agree David, Yahrab deserves some credit as well, he’s won in a similar style at Great Leighs before, I just think this one was a very clever ride.
To put the time into some sort of perspective. In Monday’s class 6 handicap over C+D, the first three home, Can Can Star, Lord Theo & Siena Star (all with an OR of around 60), all ran a faster overall time than Yahrab, and carried more weight. I’m guessing that Yahrab must have done some pretty quick sectionals though.
Final declarations, draw in brackets
1 (5) Dansant 4 9-8 E Ahern
2 (10) Celtic Spirit 5 9-6 G Baker
3 (3) Night Crescendo 5 9-6 J Crowley
4 (8) Philatelist 4 9-6 S Kelly
5 (9) Tropical Strait 5 9-6 D Sweeney
6 (1) Young Mick 6 9-6 J Quinn
7 (11) Les Fazzani 4 9-3 N Callan
8 (6) Encircled 4 9-1 A Kirby
9 (7) Kahara 4 9-1 H Turner
10 (4) Scintillo 3 9-0 S Drowne
11 (2) Mischief Making 3 8-11 C CatlinI thought I’d include the betting forecast which came with these declarations, because it made me laugh. Is it not very wrong ?
Forecast: 3/1 Young Mick, 4/1 Les Fazzani, 5/1 Tropical Strait, 6/1 Mischief Making, 10/1 Dansant, Kahara, 12/1 Scintillo, 16/1 Night Crescendo, Philatelist, 20/1 Celtic Spirit, Encircled
Final declarations, draw in brackets
1 (5) Dansant 4 9-8 E Ahern
2 (10) Celtic Spirit 5 9-6 G Baker
3 (3) Night Crescendo 5 9-6 J Crowley
4 (8) Philatelist 4 9-6 S Kelly
5 (9) Tropical Strait 5 9-6 D Sweeney
6 (1) Young Mick 6 9-6 J Quinn
7 (11) Les Fazzani 4 9-3 N Callan
8 (6) Encircled 4 9-1 A Kirby
9 (7) Kahara 4 9-1 H Turner
10 (4) Scintillo 3 9-0 S Drowne
11 (2) Mischief Making 3 8-11 C CatlinI thought I’d include the betting forecast which came with these declarations, because it made me laugh. Is it not very wrong ?
Forecast: 3/1 Young Mick, 4/1 Les Fazzani, 5/1 Tropical Strait, 6/1 Mischief Making, 10/1 Dansant, Kahara, 12/1 Scintillo, 16/1 Night Crescendo, Philatelist, 20/1 Celtic Spirit, Encircled
12’s for Scintillo?!? Surely thats not all because Steve Drowne has only rode one winner this month. Thats a crazy price for a horse with AW form
The probable pace-setters didn’t get declared. I hope that a few of these who would benefit from a decent pace, see sense & make sure there is one.
Not sure what to make of Les Fazzani, people are saying she acts on this surface, but all her class form is on soft ground. Winning a maiden & a low grade handicap on the AW is one thing, this is a very competitive Listed race. She did run well in the Lingfield race that Mischeif Making won over 1m5f (in a very fast time). It’s possible that is the best form, but my insticts are saying the best form was the Floodlit stakes from which Scintillo & Dansant come. For that reason I’ll pass on MM & LF.
I do enjoy looking at horses like Dansant in a race like this. The reason being that on present form he probably deserves to be around a 6/1+ shot, but in the form of last year over C+D, he’d probably be closer to 2/1. I’m sure he’s not regressed since, although he has lost his 3yo wfa allowance. I had a feeling that bookmakers would be pricing him up carefully, closer to 3/1-7/2, but they seem to have taken a more generous, as of today view, & he’s closer to 6/1-7/1 on Betfair.
I’m quite happy to take a gamble on Dansant at that sort of price.
7/2 Dansant
50/1 Celtic Spirit
28/1 Night Crescendo
12/1 Philatelist
13/2 Tropical Strait
8/1 Young Mick
13/2 Les Fazzani
150/1 Encircled
20/1 Kahara
6/1 Scintillo
12/1 Mischief MakingWas my 100% tissue on the race. Dansant a big price on his best form, I don’t think any of todays rivals are capable of a run like he produced at Goodwood even acknowledging the muddling nature of that race, Tactics and needing the run could be used as excuses for his last run but this is a much weaker race than that. Bit of a concern there isn’t more pace, that’s the negative with him today.
Les Fazzani was fully entitled to win by a wide margin last time and I think she has much more on her plate today against colts. Surprised Philatelist is quite as short. He looked rusty last week and I can’t see how he’ll have come on sufficiently in a week to be at his best today.
I’m quiter keen on Philatelist who ran well enough last time to suggest he can take this.
i dont have much of a clue on the form of the AW but is Mischief Making worth a punt?
I think so batman, the two i like are scintillo 10-1 and mischief making 12-1
Cheers, will do a e/w on him.
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I was at Kempton last year to see Dansant hack up and never saw Pivitoal Answer since
. I have a place bet on him today
. I have a place bet on him today
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