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Aside from the obvious that there are no obstacles. Particularly early season it appears a minefield to me. So many unraced/lightly raced young horses with the potential to improve considerably on whatever they have done before. And these are the problems before you take on board the possibility of slow starts, pulling too hard and getting boxed in. I am guessing that most people are not privy to gallop information or can regularly see the horses on course, so those of you who can make a success of it how do you do it?
To tell you the truth, I’ve been scared of betting on the Flat this season, precisely for the reasons you stated.
However, I know from previous seasons that this is the time of the year I do best, before the Form becomes too confusing.
I mainly stick to h’caps and/or sprints. Good form this season seems to help, whilst half the Field is still getting fit.
The other horse that I can sometimes pick out has a good piece of form from the previous season.
If you are keeping your own speed ratings for juveniles, you have to know when your ratings are rubbish and when they are the genuine article. If you have a few run badly, you start not to believe your figures and miss out on the big-priced horse that does win.
You need patience and discipline to make it pay, more so then the Jumps IMO.
My records show the following.
Not to bet in Sprint Race/ 3 Year Old Maidens & any fillies race.
I tend to keep to the major pattern races and bet mainly between Royal Ascot and the St Leger meeting at Doncaster.
There is so much flat racing so you need to find an angle. For instant, I have a friend who does very well in the valuable handicaps and tends to bet solely in these races.
Lewey
I read once that more favourites win over the jumps, but not sure if that’s true. Always mean to follow Richard Hannon and Willie Haggas horses at this time of year [like NTD in October] and watch out for top trainers sending youngsters to Nottingham [think Henry Cecil likes to start horses off there], but never get round to doing so Also that system that I heard of where you check out which races horses were entered for as yearlings [Derby, etc], but are racing at a lower level.
I have struggled with graded sprints ever since owners/trainers realised there was nothing between a supposedly top class sprinter and a decent handicap sprinter. Gone are the days when you used to get about eight runners in the King’s Stand. These days they are almost like a better class handicap.
Apart from betting Overdose blind this season, I was thinking that if Sir Gerry has improved again over the winter, then he will be a serious racehorse this summer in the G1s and G2s.
to answer the original question…i think the flat appeals a lot more those that tend towards seeing horses as a means to solving an equation. Jumps tends to perhaps be more about the more strongly developed strnegths and weaknesses of the horse
Someone who follows the jumps in an overly mathematical manner would probably come unstuck and someone who tended to skip over the weights and measures aspect of the flat would suffer the same fate
Perhaps…
I would suspect that there is barely any difference in the results favourites ratio in either code
Ive always found the flat much easier to bet as there are so many classy bred sorts, some in the small yards, that you can often get decent value.
I generally agree about sprints, I tend to largely stay clear of sprints, unless I look on occasion and see something a big price that has a chance.
I would apply the same principal to top class handicaps aswell where most of the contenders are weighted to their best and even with ground conditions in their favour horses have little margin for error. Likewise a horse who may even be weighted up to its best can sometimes just have everything go right for it in a race and win at a terrible prices.
IMO betting on jumps is very training based and at times trainers will put out a horse when they are in no fit state to run or over the wrong trip, or in the wrong race, where IMO on the flat, because it is so well structured a trainer will generally work out where a horse should be running quite quickly and so most 3yos, 4yos are generally where they want to be.
IMO it is always worth not betting this part of the season, as I generally show a loss at around about this stage of the year, however, IMO this is the most exciting part of the year, and the flat tends to go through a bit of a lull after royal ascot, however july, august and early september are often the best times to bet on the flat.
I have always found the best areas to bet on the flat are those areas where horses may just be passing through grade, such as maidens, 2yo races, class3+4 handicaps, listed and conditions races and trials for bigger races. etc
Because such races dont usually take a great deal of winning and a decent horse (if you can find one) can run below form and still win easily.Another area which in recent seasons I have found interesting is when the going changes, if you have a prolonged space of time on the flat where the ground is gd-fm then the form becomes quite easy to pick (provided horses stay fit on the ground), however the second the ground goes good or gd-sft, the markets will reflect the form from gd-fm and largely people will carry on betting as if it was still gd-fm. These sorts of times are when you can get some really good prices on the flat.
The sorts of times when IMO it is hardest to bet on the flat are when you have a summer where it rains one week, then its prolonged dry cloudy spells, then more rain and the same again etc etc etc, all summer, because the ground at different tracks is very unpredictable, and also in an average 20 runner race some horses who have run well on one surface may be getting a new surface on the given day that they love and other ones that they hate, and some horses will just leave their form behind on the new surface (which the Racing Post may not have even accurately described). IMO betting in a summer like this is extremely hard, where a summer where it is largely dry and the ground is largely gd-fm with a few times when it is good, is IMO the best sort of summer.
However the fact that the ground is a bit more consistent and that there is such a good distribution of class on the flat amongst the even the small yards means that it is usually much easier to get good priced winners IMO.
On the jumps some of the going descriptions are so woefullly innaccurate and some of the smaller trainers are so bad at training and jockeys so incomptetent on occasions at judging pace that a lot of the time you dont know what the hell you are betting before the race and you are relying on quite a lot to go in your favour.
Up until a few seasons ago I used to just leave the jumps well alone, but over the last few seasons I have done a bit better, but still learnt a few lessons this season. There are a few aspects of jumps racing that I really find quite offputting, Aintrees watering antics as one example killed the chances of quite a few horses who looked like bankers (at what was one of the biggest meetings of the season), the course released inaccurate going descriptions, and things like that tend to very much put punters at a considerable disadvantage. Luckily that isnt as commonplace on the flat.
Those are the main reasons I prefer the flat.
I prefer Jumps from a betting perspective because there is more depth to the form and things like course specialists (You can often get decent value backing course specialists – Wondersobright being a particular favourite) become more prominent and easier to spot.
There is something special about the early season of the flat but it is a minefield from a betting perspective. I’ve only had antepost bets so far in the hope of getting some value somehow but once the guineas weekend gets here you often have more of an idea of where the horses are relative to each other; taking into account trainer’s style of developing horses. I doubt i’ll be having a good bet until Royal Ascot though. The St James Palace is a race I like.and have done well in as the form tends to have worked itself out.
Yep, that’s a neat summary Clivex
As for the strike-rate of favourites:
NH 37% (lsp -8%)
Flat 33% (lsp -7%)So strike-rate may be greater for NH but you’ll still lose approximately the same backing them blind at SP – lose a quid, find 92p
Adrian Massey has masses of data on favs for those interested
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Much depends on how you bet but if you are backing everyday you will lose your balls on the flat a lot quicker than you will over the jumps IMO.
If you look at any novice hurdle and compare it to a maiden or 2yo race on the flat it tell you instantly which is the tougher to find the winner of.
When I see a field of 16 maidens 2yo’s with virtually no form to go on I don’t even look at the race let alone bet in it.
Only last season I started betting on the flat again and it worked out ok but I much prefer the jumps, no matter what figures people throw about.
(You can often get decent value backing course specialists – Wondersobright being a particular favourite)
Kempski would be my Wondersobright in that respect in recent times. Probably helps both our causes value-wise that neither horse belongs to especially fashionable connections.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
There might be deep psychological reasons why I prefer betting over the jumps but from past experience I find that at some point during the flat season I’m longing for the jumps proper to begin again. Maybe it’s because I see that as a fresh start, a chance to wipe the slate clean and begin a new profitable adventure.
Though in reality it might be more about the longer duration of jump races and the need to experience the pain/pleasure syndrome and to be able to hold onto hope/wishful thinking for those extra seconds that the jumps allow and to believe that even though my chosen horse is struggling in last place there’s just the remotest chance that perhaps the rest of the field might just take the wrong course. This latter point came to fruition several years ago when I trailed in seventh, I think, but was subsequently awarded the race @ 20/1 for precisely that reason.
I quite like betting on the flat when there’s been an overnight deluge and a marked change of going making it a little easier to spot past good form on an easier surface. Bring on climate change, I say.Basic rule number one.
Flat is Speed. NH is not.
Speed is not easily picked up by the human eye – you need a computer with accurate standards and data which, to control, is nearly a full time job.
You will only win in NH if you horse watch and only win in Flat if you speed watch.
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