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The question is "Who would you say are the best 3 horses in training?", so your own opinion, not the handicappers.
If your views concur with the official handicapper then that’s fair enough!
CS – If Profound Beauty went for The Arc, would you price her up as favourite in your tissue?
Mr. Wilson you are somewhat missing point on this one. I presume from your comments that you don’t ever back in a handicap as the runners are guaranteed to finish in a dead-heat, and whenever there is a non-handicap race you blindly back the top rated?
CS – If Profound Beauty went for The Arc, would you price her up as favourite in your tissue?
As I’ve been saying all season that I believe The Arc should be her target, and if she runs I’ll be going on heavily then obviously, yes, she’d be my tissue favourite as I sure as hell wouldn’t want to lay her. That said I’d expect to get around 20’s, 25s from the bookies
The Arc is one of the few big races on the planet missing from Dermot Weld’s CV and I think The Melbourne Cup may prove a furlong or so too far for her as it did a couple of years ago, Rite Of Passage looks the more likely winner of the two stablemates.
The one horse who should be going to Oz is Dunguib, his connections have really missed the boat with his career. He’s never looked a natural jumper,yet the way he powered away from Rite Of Passage in The Festival Bumper was breathtaking and to me shows what could have been if he’d been campaigned in Cup races. I have no doubt he would have ran away with this year’s Ascot Gold Cup but I can’t see him ever win a proper Championship NH race
Peruvian Chief
If you add your selection Cape Blanco into the this year’s formlines through Age Of Aquarius, Harbinger and Profound Beauty, after The KG I don’t understand how you can possibly make a case for Cape Blanco beating Profound Beauty over 12 to 14 furlongs
With due respect, thats pretty extreme cherry picking of one race. Cape Blanco’s already rated 12lb ahead better and is ripe for more improvement.
I couldn’t see the mare bothering him too much, and i think Welds race placement tells its own story really. He seems to think Group 3 / Listed is her level, and at 6 she’s a bit long in the tooth for neccessary leap to Group 1 company.
With due respect, thats pretty extreme cherry picking of one race. Cape Blanco’s already rated 12lb ahead better and is ripe for more improvement.
I couldn’t see the mare bothering him too much, and i think Welds race placement tells its own story really. He seems to think Group 3 / Listed is her level, and at 6 she’s a bit long in the tooth for neccessary leap to Group 1 company.
I disagree that the form is Cherry Picked? Have you watched these races? Ormonde Stakes, Saval Beg Stakes, King George and the manner of the victory in each race?
She’s quite lightly race for a horse of her age Dermot Weld is well known for giving his best flat horses plenty of time to mature….Vintage Crop, Vinnie Roe, Media Puzzle, Rite Of Passage et etc all peaked around 5 or 6I’ve seen all three, and it seems to me you are using the collateral form of one Listed win to have Profound Beauty the equivalent of Harbingers of King George win. I don’t buy it.
If i cherry picked one race as you have done, her comprehensive defeat to Tactic for example, you would cry foul with some excuses i’m sure (in season etc etc). But if AOA ran below form against Profound Beauty in Ireland, similarly to how you claim she did against Tactic, your reasoning is shot to bits.
I respect your right to an opinion, but tissuing Profound Beauty as jolly for The Arc is pushing the realms of reality a bit even for a fantasist such as myself.
Edit – the above would not have been winning any Arc’s either, good as they were.
I’ve seen all three, and it seems to me you are using the collateral form of one Listed win to have Profound Beauty the equivalent of Harbingers of King George win. I don’t buy it.
If i cherry picked one race as you have done, her comprehensive defeat to Tactic for example, you would cry foul with some excuses i’m sure (in season etc etc). But if AOA ran below form against Profound Beauty in Ireland, similarly to how you claim she did against Tactic, your reasoning is shot to bits.
I respect your right to an opinion, but tissuing Profound Beauty as jolly for The Arc is pushing the realms of reality a bit even for a fantasist such as myself.
Edit – the above would not have been winning any Arc’s either, good as they were.
If I understand the term "tissue" correctly the odds are those based one person’s view of the likely outcome of any given race and therefore the horse the compiler feels to be the most likely winner would be his betting favourite, regardless of what anyone else thinks. Similarily those he felt have little or no chance would his outsiders. As I won’t be laying bets and therefore don’t have to balance any books I can also say I’d make Workforce at least a 33-1 shot based on the likelyhood of him making the frame IMO
I can see your point re the Tactic race but yes she was in season that day as I’m sure you know. Didn’t the great Petite Etoile once run a stinker when in season?
Nobody claimed any excuses for AOA at Leopardstown, but after The Ormonde AOB is quoted as saying he’d come on a lot for that run. I think Age Of Aquarius was one of the most consistent of animals and is therefore a very reliable yardstick.
Before Profound Beauty was pulled out of The KG I thought it was between her and Harbinger, I don’t think any horse in training would have lived with Harbinger that day but she would surely have been a lot closer to him than Cape Blanco was otherwise we can all throw our form books in the fire.I’ll agree to disagree. It could also be said, that if Profound Beauty was the Arc favourite, as you believe she should be if she lines up, we should also burn our formbooks.
8f – Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, Makfi
10f – Rip Van Winkle, Cape Blanco Twice Over,
12f – Rip Van Winkle, Sariska, Cape BlancoI’ll agree to disagree. It could also be said, that if Profound Beauty was the Arc favourite, as you believe she should be if she lines up, we should also burn our formbooks.
What I’m actually saying is I believe she has the best chance of winning, I did also add that she should be/is likely to be around 20-1, or maybe 12s/14s if she wins The Irish Leger
Can we hold on to our form books at least until Saturday evening? Then one of us can send ours to USA, I believe they have a book burning already arranged for the day of the race
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