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Which is better – form book or Beano?

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  • #879
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    An article in the R/Post today stated that Bookmaker Andy Smith ( trades as Dick Reynolds ) is cutting back on the number of his pitches due to his view of a lack of integrity in horse racing which he believes is not policed well enough.

    One of his comments was that ‘ There are far too many wrong results nowadays & you might as well read the beano as the form book. I’m an opinion bookmaker and when I first came into racing, you could match your judgement and make it pay. Now plenty of form horses drift on the exchanges & then put in inexplicable disappointing performances‘  

    Is he right or is this just a gut reaction due to recent events? As somebody who bets by studying the form book closely, I haven’t seen many differences in the reliability of form now compared to the past. I also recall a survey by BF stating that more horses won races after drifting than those that didn’t.

    #39156
    Zorro
    Member
    • Total Posts 472

    He BELIEVES he’s right. That’s what counts. And he won’t be alone. <br>Perception is all important. That’s the main reason why, on integrity issues, there has to be zero tolerance.

    #39157
    Andrew HughesAndrew Hughes
    Member
    • Total Posts 1904

    I think that’s spot on, perception is everything.

    There is however, a slight risk in the zero tolerance approach, in that it follows a prolonged employment of the ‘sitting on one’s hands’ approach. Consequently all sorts of unpleasant things may have been going on in the garden over the centuries. To start turning over stones at this stage may bring all manner of creepy crawlies into the light and give the impression of a sport in hopeless decay.

    Perhaps an annual arrest, conviction and fine, just to keep everyone on their toes. It could be the jockey equivalent of National Service: do your bit to maintain the perception of integrity.

    #39162
    Mr Frisk
    Participant
    • Total Posts 163

    According to the Racing Post tips table, a £1 level stake on the favourite is currently showing a return for the year of 97.96%, having dotted up in the same contest last year with about  95pc over the 12-month period. Not a great deal of margin there for an on-course operator, whether you’re betting on numbers or opinion.

    #39165
    SirHarryLewisSirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1194

    Quote: from Zorro on 11:35 am on Feb. 19, 2007[br]He BELIEVES he’s right. That’s what counts. And he won’t be alone. <br>Perception is all important. That’s the main reason why, on integrity issues, there has to be zero tolerance.<br>

    But that of course discounts with the notion of justice.  Handing out punishments not to fit the crime but to fit with the perceptions of of the ignorant?  That is a hard pill to take.

    SHL

    #39166
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I disagree .. I carried out a fair bit of research on horse price movements a couple of years ago .. its true that horses that drift in the market dont win as often horses that shorten up, they actually represent worse value, because the market over-corrects to ‘good things and bad things’.

    Having your own opinion and not backing at SP is a good way to go about things, IMO. This is where Kelly staking really comes into its own, if you apply it correctly.

    Thats from a punters point of view of course .. not a bookies.

    #39169
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    p**s
    ed myself laughing when I read the Andy Smith quote. Don’t believe everything you read in the papers!

    #39172
    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    I don’t understand why Andy Smith is saying something he has known to be true for years as if its new.  Some of his "associates" are a bit too close to the action IMO.

    #39175
    railway guard
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    Could it possibly be because he can’t make it pay any more?

    (Edited by railway guard at 5:39 pm on Feb. 19, 2007)

    #39176
    class tells
    Member
    • Total Posts 207

    i can reach the top shelf in the kitchen with timeform but cant with the beano   the short arsed punter:biggrin:

    #39179
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    He might have got a better price if the letter read

    ‘After meeting my accountant and being advised that the way the profits are going I will soon have to think about moving abroad and becoming a tax exile I have no desire to live in Monaco and have decided to sell my business.

    Whenever I go racing I have to spend most of the evening counting up the cash and after a while it becomes boring I have therefore reluctantly decided that it is now time to pass on my dynamic business on in order to enjoy a happy retirement.

    the pitches he has for sale at present are<br>rails (1) bath offers @30k<br>""     (2) exeter        @10k<br>tatts (27) goodwood @5k<br>""      (11) taunton    @10k<br>""      (6) worcester   @1k

    #39181
    Galejade
    Member
    • Total Posts 185

    I agree totally with Sir Hrry Lewis. It is far more important to ensure that Justice is done than it is to follow the siren call of perception is everything merely to attempt to attract a flakey fringe of possible further supporters of our sport. Not that I am suggesting that justice has not been done in this case.

    #39184
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Not too often one sees ‘integrity’ and ‘bookmaker’ in the same paragraph?<br>All but the most dim-witted punters must realise that the bookies have an agenda to thwart the exchanges, and one of their more transparent tactics is the upsurge in their crocodile tears for racing’s integrity.<br>For decades, nay centuries, they have given the Nelson eye to horses being ‘not off’, taken insider bets with a nod and a wink, done ‘favours’ for jockeys, trainers, and stable staff, built intellligence networks that would make MI5 blush, and tailored sp’s to the general detriment and their own good.<br>Even today, they have yet to be responsible for reporting one suspicious betting pattern where they finished in front, given up one audit trail – even though they keep them on all the larger players, –  or alerted the authorities to one suspicious ride.<br> Only recently these same integrity conscious bookies took on-course bets from a warned-off punter, apparently without one of them turning a hair, yet still they cry racing isn’t straight.<br>My heart bleeds!:biggrin: <br>

    #39188
    yeatsyeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2923

    Quote: from dave jay on 1:05 pm on Feb. 19, 2007[br]I disagree .. I carried out a fair bit of research on horse price movements a couple of years ago .. its true that horses that drift in the market dont win as often horses that shorten up, they actually represent worse value, because the market over-corrects to ‘good things and bad things’.

    Having your own opinion and not backing at SP is a good way to go about things, IMO. This is where Kelly staking really comes into its own, if you apply it correctly.

    Thats from a punters point of view of course .. not a bookies.<br>

    I don’t follow you dave, the vast majority of horses drift so there must be more winners that have drifted than have contracted in price.<br>You say horses that have drifted represent worse value than ones that have shortened but that the markets over react to good and bad things. Wouldn’t the opposite be true if that was the case?

    Who is Kelly?

    #39190
    Jim JTSJim JTS
    Member
    • Total Posts 841

    I got myself a copy of said book … :biggrin:

    <br>

    Looks like Dennis the Menace has left the rest of the field rockin’ :biggrin:

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