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Which group will provide the most winners?

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  • #940
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 170

    I have been skowering the bookies to look at their Cheltenham Specials, saw this bet and wondered what everyone thought.

    The bookies have listed the jockeys in to groups to see who will get themost winners.

    Group A/ Ruby, Mick Fitz, Carberry, R.Davidson 7/4

    Broup B/ Dickie Johnson, R.Thornton, A. Mcnamera, Waley-Cohen 9/4

    Group C/ AP, Geraghty, O’Dwyer, Nina caberry 11/4

    Group D/ Murphy, Thomas, Casey, Sweeney 6/1

    Personally I would have to be on the favourite. Anyone thinking of backing Ruby to win top jockey at 2’s, surely this is a safer bet??

    I have done a few calculations for each group. this is of course pure guess work and for some of the ‘lesser’ jockey’s who have one ‘good’ ride I have been jind enough to let them win in m calculations!

    I would imagine Group A picking up 8 (Ruby 4, Fitz 2, Carberry 1, Davidson 1 – as long as he rides Gungudu). Group B 5 (Johnson 2, Thornton 1, McNamera 1 and Waley-Coehn 1), Groupd C I would give a generous 7 (AP 4, Geraghty 1, O’Dwyer 1, Nina Carberry 1) and Group D possibly 5, (Murphy 2, Thomas 1, Casey 2, Sweeney 0)

    What is everyone else’s view, is 7/4 a good thing? And would rather take that on then the 2/1 offered on ruby to be Top Jock? Discuss.

    #42272
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    I’d be on the last group aaftershock, think the Davidson is Rose and Sweeney will be on Gungadu in the 4 miler – he has been on Nicholls previous runners in the race.

    #42273
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2927

    Don’t see much value in them prices, forced to have a free bet would go for C.<br>Would sooner have the 9/4 Ruby top jock than that group 7/4.

    #42274
    marko
    Participant
    • Total Posts 85

    aaftershock

    Group A – 8 Winners<br>Group B – 5 Winners<br>Group C – 7 Winners<br>Group D – 5 Winners

    That’s 25 winners!

    #42275
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 170

    In regards to the number of winners – I never actually sat and went through each race and worked out the winner – if I could do that I wouldn’t be worrying about a 7/4 shot!!

    I litrally just went through some of their big rides and gave the benefit of the doubt to the jockey, i.e the championHurdle I have given geraghty one even though i do not think Macs Joy will win and also Johnson one for Detroit City.

    I would imagine that not all of thee jockies will win all the races!! I guess Paddy Brennon, G.lee and a few decent claimers will hoping to guide at least one home!

    Yeats, I’m not so sure, as then you have 9/4 for what is essentially a shoot out between AP and Ruby. (most probably). By taking the 7/4 you are getting the security that Mick Fitz and Carberry to out score Geraghty and O’Dwyer – as well as the likelyhood of Ruby oustcoring AP.

    #42276
    bear
    Member
    • Total Posts 143

    Jamie Snowden has been booked for Gungadu unless I’m mistaken.

    #42277
    DeadlySins
    Member
    • Total Posts 105

    I’d back Group A too, especially when as you point out Ruby being 2/1 for top jockey, it probably is a good value bet when you throw in Fitz and Carberry aswell.

    #42278
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    O’Dwyer has a couple of decent rides though ;) Carberry isn’t great round cheltenham.. The uphill finish doesn’t suit him, i’d rather have group C at the prices.

    #42279
    Alderbrook
    Member
    • Total Posts 349

    Quote: from Aragorn on 3:15 pm on Mar. 1, 2007[br]O’Dwyer has a couple of decent rides though ;) Carberry isn’t great round cheltenham.. The uphill finish doesn’t suit him, i’d rather have group C at the prices.

    I know what you are saying about Carberry but that Frenchman’s Creek ride was rather good!

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