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Hopefully, this is the right forum.
I would guess most people would see me as a complete dinosaur in the way I have done my betting. I try to pick winners before the race, don’t lay horses, don’t bet in running, and don’t use exchanges. I wonder how many people now successfully use this method without any recourse to any inside information?
It’s served me with something like 17 profitable years out of the 20. I go back much further than that, but the data isn’t so easily accessible. My bets are relatively small, but I would hope to win four figures or more each year.
Winning has in recent years become harder and harder. Two big stumbling blocks are fixtures and the general standard of jocks. Nobody in their right mind would want to keep up with all the garbage that is churned out day after day. Basically, it’s bookmaker fodder, and we have nobody in overall control to do anything about it. The sport wants punters to lose. You are forced to concentrate on certain types of race. I have a pretty good pedigree knowledge so that has led me to concentrate on bumpers, and novice races, basically races for the younger, untested animal. This has worked well for many years. By highlighting a nice pedigree it was possible to generate a stream of bumper winners, many at decent prices. These days those type of horses no longer win. Trainers are happy for what they call an ‘educational run’, meaning that if a horse shows promise first time then it goes off an unbackable price next time. The big priced winners (often with very ordinary pedigrees) are now produced by trainers not associated with training bumper winners. They might train one a year. It’s made betting in those races a totally different proposition, and one which can only benefit bookmakers.
Other than bets on the Festival I have cut right back this year. Keeping a record tells it’s own story. The changing climate doesn’t help. With the wetter winter you need horses to be at a maximum fitness level. How many Martin Pipe’s do we have? I suspect not that many. Too many inexplicable performances where the trainer could offer ‘no explanation’. What is even the point of that process?
So it boils down to either giving up or doing something different. On the basis I don’t think that I have become a poor gambler overnight – it’s actually something that should improve with age – for the moment I have chosen the latter. I will still take a look each week, but will concentrate on Festivals on the basis that the majority of runners should be fit and trying. Cheltenham was a good start. We have Fairyhouse, Aintree, Punchestown, and then it becomes more difficult as my interest on the flat gets more limited every year, and while the jumps weighing room isn’t great, the flat equivalent is as bad as I can ever remember.
“Winning has in recent years become harder and harder.”
I listen to quite a lot of the podcasts, etc, (such as Simon Nott’s excellent series of interviews which includes many interviews with professional or former professional bettors). One common theme is that most of them stress how much harder it is today and that they wouldn’t advise any starting out to get into it (professional betting).
Information is more widely available, some of the more accessible edges (such as race times/sectionals for example) while not completely gone have been eroded as they’ve entered the public domain. The markets are smarter, Betfair SP is hard, not impossible, but hard to beat. I heard one or two saying that if you’re beating that you have half a chance, if you’re not then you’re up against it.
The other theme that is stressed is that the winning is only half the battle, the ‘getting on’ to the degree you need to in order to make a living often requires a considerable logistical exercise and listening to these guys (and 100% of the ones I have seen feature men – why aren’t there more female pro gamblers?) it seems that the clever bit these days is not so much identifying winners but developing systematic approaches to getting on.
Add to that the advent and refining of online books which mean they’ve developed systems of quickly identifying what they would see as unattractive customer propositions and a tough task for the serious recreational punter becomes extremely difficult. Edges like each-way betting when the bookies are offering favourable terms can be a quick route to having accounts limited or killed entirely.So I think most of those characters would agree with your view Stilvi, that it is harder to win these days than it was.
I have taken the problems of actually getting bets on as read. Those have been around for many years. I have had plenty of accounts closed (not just profitable ones), or restricted to a level that they may as well have been closed. Many are now talking about affordability checks, but very few about restrictions. I can understand restrictions on the those betting in large amounts (and winning), but restricting recreational punters who are betting 10’s and 20’s? I think all bookmakers should have to lay single bets to a minimum of say £100. Given their profits that doesn’t seem a ridiculous amount. No accounts should be closed/restricted on the basis of what might happen.
Something like below should he adopted. Bookmakers will produce scare stories of why it id not a good idea but the situation as it stands is lop-sided in favour of bookmakers.
https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/posts/current-minimum-bet-laws-by-australian-state
It is more difficult than it was 10 or 20 years ago, but not impossible.
Almost given up on bookmakers.
True David, sectionals used to be an easy way to profit.
Seem to remember when Simon Rowlands (if I remember rightly his name on here was Prufrock) was publicising it on ATR… Saying to him that when too many people (and bookmakers) understand it…it will no longer be profitable (or as profitable). It’s also hit my “pace” angle to a certain degree. eg There was a time when identifying a runner who’d be given an easy lead was almost certain to be value.However, I remember Julian Wilson once saying he wished Timeform did not exist because their subscribers were ruining his value.
Have only had my renewed Timeform Race Passes subscription for around 10 days now. Wondered whether the game had changed too much since I was last a subscriber. Still very early days but early signs are promising.
Value Is EverythingWithout looking it up I believe I was last a subscriber about 4 years ago.
I had other priorities. Often driving 70 odd miles to see my girlfriend and couldn’t spend loads of time on Racing when my girlfriend came to my place for a few days at a time either. Decided to give the subscription up to do up my old property to sell and then do a few things to our new home… Knowing that if I had the subscription nothing would get done!… And betting in a serious way is easier when you’re single. Had to be pretty sure my girlfriend could psychologically handle me going back to betting seriously.
oh and… Without theracingforum, me and Shirley would never have met.
Value Is Everything“Without theracingforum, me and Shirley would never have met. “
On a tricky week that made my day to read!
Juggling betting and the time needed to do it properly with a family life is a big challenge I think.“100% of the ones I have seen feature men – why aren’t there more female pro gamblers”.
This will not be a popular opinion in this predominantly liberal forum but most women do not really get betting. That is not to say there are no female punters or successful female punters. One of the best judges I ever met was a woman who put £2 on every horse she fancied. She regularly ended the year with a handsome profit. But women such as her are the exception rather than the rule.
Serious betting, especially if betting for a living, does tend to require people who are a bit geekish and willing to take a risk. Both are those things are predominantly male characteristics. Women are by and large not into geeky hobbies and are more risk averse than men.
Not sure about “get”, but I agree with the sentiment CAS. Women are – by and large – not interested in the aspects of betting that makes betting pay…
A TRFer once messaged me and asked (in a polite way) if I was at all on the autism scale. I think it was the way autistic people have a passion for something and can spend hours on it that made him ask.
Value Is EverythingI thought you might find it a comfort, David.
Although a girlfriend or wife is one thing, a family would be too much pressure.
I would also recommend paying off the mortgage before starting to bet seriously too…Professional gamblers are unable to get a mortgage for good reason.
Value Is EverythingGoing back to the point of the thread: I agree with everything that has been said. There is no value in horse racing betting nowadays. Those days are gone, even before we take into consideration affordability checks and restrictions.
When I first started betting properly in 1990, there was no RTV and SSR and no internet streaming platforms. There was racing on television every Saturday but not always on both channels – Channel 4 had several blank weekends when none of its tracks had meetings. Even SIS in the betting shops did not have cameras at every meeting. I can remember having a bet and listening to a commentary a few times. If you were at home and the race was not on television, you had to rely on the bookmaker pages on Ceefax or Oracle!
Anyone who went racing regularly potentially had a real edge if they saw racea that had barely been seen. Now every race is available to watch in your own home. Analytical skills have got much better across the board – but people who excel at that sort of thing work for the bookmakers now. The overwhelming majority of horses are the right sort of price in the market. It is very rare to find something significantly over-priced.
I still do well enough at the likes of Cheltenham, Aintree, Epsom and Royal Ascot. But I can see myself not getting very involved this Flat season. I cannot see where the value is and it is not really fun anymore.
Can I ask CAS, when do you usually bet?
Overnight / Early Prices?
Mid Morning?
Or
Just Before The Off?Value Is EverythingGinger, it would be interesting to know how many successful horse racing punters are on the autistic spectrum. It is a well established fact that many autistic people are very good at analysing information and spotting trends and patterns. All of which lends itself to potentially doing well at punting.
I know there is an argument that women on the autistic spectrum are better at masking the condition than men but I am not entirely persuaded by that argument. I think autism tends to be more prevalent in men.
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