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Punters are fooled every day into believing there are large market moves for horses. At least ones that count.
There is a huge difference between 2000 quid from an owner or trainer than their is from a punter who just happens to be having a good day.
That is my only understand of a horse being negative or posotive in the market.
How many times have we seen a 33/1 shot shooting into 7/1 and running like a 50/1 shot.
It can happen at any meeting, all it takes is someone who fancies a horse with no real idea of it’s reeal chance to place a couple of 500 pound bets….there are plenty of them out there…….he puts the money on with the right bookies and when they cut the price, so every one does. He has another few hundred on it reduces the price again and starts a frenzy.
To me that is a negative and when I went racing and seen horses coming diving in my first reaction was not to bet him but ask my bookie where the cash was coming from. The punter in the betting shops cant do that so they bet blind……too many bet and more money goes back to the course……..it happens so fast it’s frightening and you end up with a massive gamble that looks positive but is very very negative……small tracks and AW tracks are the worst for it.
On the otherhand if you know a bookie well enogh who tells you JP just had 10K on one then that to me is a positive.
My point is trying to work out which is a real positive and which is not is extremely difficult if you are not there in person.
I’m not sure how they work out which is positive and which is negative but I would be willing to bet my backside they get it wrong many many times.
Talking horses are very hard to judge as every one jumps on them……everyone that is except the connections who have decided to give him a few days off before the race and use it as a training excersice……….horse may still go from 5/4 to 4/6 with the pressure of public money and be very negative…….they on the otherhand would say it was positive……does that make sense?
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