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I stick mostly to the Flat and to the better quality fare.
I’ll bet on any two year old races apart from nurseries and love ante post bets for the Classics.
I will back in older horse handicaps but to smaller stakes and try to get on early because some of the prices for these huge handicap fields are ridiculous come the off. Of course getting on early means you don’t know the draw and I can’t remember a season like this one for having so many desperate draws ante-post with Kingston Hill and Taghrooda being a particularly spectacular knee in the nuts with their Arc berths.
I read years ago that you should avoid sprints but I have had a good season this year with Slade Power, Extortionist, Baccarat and G Force all providing good pay days.
Generally my maximum distance to bet on is 1 mile 4 furlongs but I will dabble in the Leger. I am not really a fan of the Cup races and extreme distances and keep any bets in that sphere low key.
I don’t back Godolphin horses and very rarely get involved in Mark Johnston runners, Charlie Hills and Richard Hannon horses running beyond 10f. I never back odds on horses and never back at Bath, Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick or Hamilton.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s horses rather than races for me. 98% NH. Value is almost always the driver – or at least my perception of value.
I’ve found that the best value usually comes from assumptions made by the media/bookmakers based on flawed logic.
Albertas Run was in a race at Ascot 3 or 4 years ago. The conditions were heavily biased towards horses who had not won for a long time making him up to 20lbs well in. But he’d been branded a ‘dog’ by many (including Timeform), when 5 minutes with a formbook told you that all he needed was proper good ground. He hosed up at 8s. (When it dawned on Timeform that ground was the key, they removed his squiggle)
Some of you will be aware of me touting Cue Card at 12s for the King George early last season. That one didn’t come off, but the horse was no less a massive value bet for all that. A quick look through the early market told you that the as many as fifty percent of those ahead of Cue Card in the betting were very unlikely to run, or a strong argument could be made against them winning.
Another was Jezki, who, at one point, was pushed out to 14s for the Champion despite solid evidence, from an objective race-reading point, that he might well be the best hurdler in Ireland. But, like Cue Card, he was never a ‘public’ horse (and is unlikely ever to be, so should remain decent value).
I also like trying to spot a horse who ‘has something about him’ that will deliver a payoff, though some of these (like Rajdhani Express) can prove long projects.
I’m always happy to take longish odds about an unbeaten one stepping up in class, as you never know their true merit until they lose.
Finally, that old standby, improvers. I suspect there are more of these over jumps than on the Flat, though I don’t follow that medium enough to say for sure. You never know when or why a horse will suddenly hit a spell where he shows form way beyond likelihood.
And they can do it at any age. Some of you will remember Mac Vidi who placed in a Gold Cup at the age of 15, having won 8 of his previous 11 races.
I bet on anything where I spot a good opportunity, but have been specialising on a few of the less popular niches recently with a view to getting an edge. With work and general life taking much more of my time than it used to, I find it hard to cover the whole spectrum like I did before.
Selling hurdles, all-weather racing and hunter chases have been pretty good for me in the last year. I used to focus on the big Saturday handicaps and had a couple of years where those were profitable, but haven’t been able to hit a barn door in them recently as readers of the Big Races, Discussion sub-forums would attest! I guess it’s partly variance and partly a symptom of my overall form knowledge shrinking.
I’ve started a new ‘horses rather than races’ blog for the new jumps season to get back on the wagon, so hopefully that brings some results via the horse tracker.
I’ve had a big realisation recently. Now I see that it is OK to look for help and talk to to other punters about their methods. I used to just ignore other tipsters for fear of becoming a blind follower, but there’s no point in being a lone wolf all the time. Racing is such a massive world that it helps to have a PTP guru, Irish racing buff, speed figures man and international racing fan in your contacts if you don’t have time to keep tabs on their areas of expertise. I use a spreadsheet to keep tabs on the tips I get from every source and start paying attention if they prove reliable.
Albertas Run was in a race at Ascot 3 or 4 years ago. The conditions were heavily biased towards horses who had not won for a long time making him up to 20lbs well in. But he’d been branded a ‘dog’ by many (including Timeform), when 5 minutes with a formbook told you that all he needed was proper good ground. He hosed up at 8s. (When it dawned on Timeform that ground was the key, they removed his squiggle.
Good old Timeform Joe,
Albertas Run
was a money spinner for me on here,that day you are on about was the day ‘Voy Por Ustedes’ had to give him 10lb on ground ‘Albertas’ loved like you say.His subsequent 3 runs saw him stuffed on soft ground,one in the King george against ‘Kauto Star’,after that race Betfair had Jonjo’s horse at 90’s for the Ryanair…..Value or what? Particularly so considering he’d finished 2nd to ‘Kauto’ in the previous years King george on his good ground…..The rest they say is history but what a Ryanair horse he turned into.
Aye Gord, much slagged off and underrated, thankfully, for those who don’t run with the herd.
Generally handicaps, preferably 5-10f and class 5 and up, between class 5 and 3 I find are best for finding the best bets.
I bet in anywhere I think is worth analysing and pricing up generally but my first focus would be for the above, though it is about opportunity generally and you have to act where you feel it could be worth it.
I only bet on flat and AW.
Interesting topic Cav.
My first answer is a little controversial and is not for me….
"I like to bet on races recommended by my favourite tipster to whom I pay large wad of cash every year."
I have so many opinions against this that I will pass no comment other than to say "painting by numbers" is also very boring.
Personally, I have no fixed ideas about the type of race I wager on but I only bet when I consider the price is right. This strategy has serious downsides because whereas most will think of early prices and the stampede to get on at the opening offers, my experience tells me it’s often the last minute drift (when friendless) that offers far better value. (I have never managed to successfully play this strategy in advance on-line for some reason as I prefer to see my certain odds, combining both betfair and regular bookmakers, and I have no idea how a lumpy bet at big odds (at Betfair SP) affects everything late). Needless to say, having a full time job does not make this strategy very easy to operate and if I weren’t self-employed I’d have been fired years ago!.
Handicaps, preferably handicap chases, however have backed Night in Milan today at Sedgefield, potentially going to do my money on him in the race for a second straight year!
JJM
I do best at class 2 to class 4 handicaps with no more than 12 runners.I try Stay away from low prize money, big fields(unless for fun), Aw and group races.
chester sprints i seem to do best at and mile races upto 1m 2 f. At ayr, newmarket etcInteresting that so many are aware of the prevalence of non triers, from that the question arises, why does anyone bet at all? Racing is an absolute minefield.
Hope springs eternal.. etc. This time of year I look for trainers with good win and place figures in hurdles only, preferably higher grade racing. Just keeping my head above water, shock results no longer shock because I know there will be at least one runner in every race that has been waited with. The challenge is to find that dark horse.
why does anyone bet at all?
why does anyone drink at all?
why does anyone smoke at all?
why does anyone take drugs at all?etc
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Woolf, should you not ask that question of yourself?
You cry foul play and remind us all of our gullibility to continue following this retched sport yet you continue to bet yourself? I don’t get it?
As I said, Hope springs eternal in the human breast. There is usually a new angle to try that will keep me occupied for a while. More racing fans are beginning to understand that not all runners in a given race are trying, that knowledge can lead to the abandonment of racing as a betting medium or, as in my case, to look for ways of identifying horses that have been waited with. Not easy but rewarding when you get it right. I made a modest profit on the flat over the summer and now I am turning my attention to hurdlers. It’s unlikely that I will look at All Weather, it’s too far gone.
It’s unlikely that I will look at All Weather, it’s too far gone
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Well said Wolf …its beyond redemption ,,,whereas Jumping game is a lot better in my view
hope you remember to stick to those top weights in impossible handicap hurdles !!!!
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