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I’ve been monitoring this forum for a while now, and it seems a genuine friendly place where lovers of racing and all things equine can chat, and even hasten I add, share ‘banter’.
Straight to the point, and whilst I don’t expect – nor am I asking for – a free ride, but I’d be most grateful if I could be pointed in the right direction of some information. I have enjoyed gambling on the horses for around 5 years now, but I’m looking for a more profitable solution. Of course I know that the £3 Lucky 15’s I throw on on Saturday’s are never likely to yield anything massive, so why do I bother!
I’m looking for calculated predictions, steady bankroll management, and some profit along the way wouldn’t go a miss.
So where do I start really? I’ve never spent hours researching a race, as I simply don’t know the most important things to look for. Is Good to soft really going to make much difference to a horse that excels on Good ground? Is how it acts on the ground more important than the weight it’s carrying etc?
A friend once told me, he was backing a horse because it had large feet, which would help across the sludgy heavy going. I literally laughed at him. How the hell did he know the horse had large feet for a start? Of course he’d weighed up other attributes, but that was the one that struck me. Where does one find information on the diameters of a horses foot?!
This was supposed to be a short post, nobody likes a newcomer announcing their arrival with paragraphs of demands. Please don’t see me as that, I’ve been researching for a while and feel I could get better information through active discussion.
I live at home with my Mum and Dad, who are retired and living on poor state pension (with the tories in power for another 5 years, I don’t see that increasing anytime soon!), so really I’m aiming to provide a little extra income for the family. My job pays my way easily enough, so it’s more to see that they can enjoy their retirement!
So really, I’m just in search of any reading material that could help me, be it finding a winner, bankroll management etc. I see GingerTipster is a successful gambler, though seems to stake quite a lot over a few runners in a race, and while usually achieving profit, I can’t help but think that surely the same amount could just be staked on the winner?! Alas, how naive I know.
Anyway, as I’m sure you’ll find out in the coming months, I tend to babble somewhat so I’ll end this here.
You are seeking the dream, just like the rest of us it seems. I suggest you find a “system” or “selection method” that suits you best and go with that. Nobody will win 100% of the time and it is very rare that someone will win 50% of the time. This starts the conversation about “value”…
Back 10 horses, get 3 winners at 3/1 and you are making a steady profit. Sure, but is that reality ? Value is not about numbers, but about finding the true value over the bookmakers odds. I am not an expert in this area and prefer to stick with my systems and trends, so all i can really do is offer some ideas that you might like to consider and adapt to your own ways or else just ignore (not meant to be harsh, just honest).
How about this for starters…
Look for courses where the favourite has a high strike rate, e.g. 50% or higher. That means a winner every other bet, but if you only hit odds on shots then you will lose money despite bagging lots of winners.
W4/5, L, L, W1/2, W4/7, L, L, WEvens, L, W4/6
5 wins from 10 races, but no profit
£10 staked on each race = £100 outlay but only £85.38 returned.Consider perhaps refining this and only following favourites at tracks where not only the strike rate is 50% but also the return is in a profit situation. For example…
Tomorrow (Wed May 20th) the favourites at Ayr show the following stats…
Type Wins Runs % £1 stake
2yo 28 63 44 -3.29
3yo 3 8 38 +2.16
4yo+ 3 7 43 -1.04
Overall 34 78 44 -2.17These are the stats for non handicaps as handicaps won’t give the same high returns, however if you follow the 3yo’s then you would have had only 8 bets over the last 5 seasons and for what ? £216 profit if you have a £100 win bet each time ?
Lingfield looks a bit better…
Type Wins Runs % £1 stake
2yo 30 60 50 +8.34
3yo 30 62 48 -0.54
4yo+ 1 16 6 -15.00
Overall 61 138 44 -7.20That looks more promising, backing the favourites in 2yo races not only sees a 50% strike but also a profit of £834 to a £100 stake, but again, spread over 5 seasons.
This is a good way of highlighting the first rule – patience. If you find a way of making steady money, it will almost certainly not be easy to do or follow.
> You will have to go all winter without a bet
> Endure potentially long losing streaks
> Fathom out how to bet on joint favourites, or those that “flip flop” just before the off.Great idea on paper, but in reality maybe not so straight forward.
If there was a sure fire way then it would soon get round and everyone would follow it, thus taking all of the fun out of betting as the prices would plummet etc etc
Another idea I will give but not go into details, it to select certain types of races, e.g. sprints, middle distance, long distance, hurdles, chases and stick to that. Maybe even concentrate on certain trainers at certain courses – Roger Varian at Lingfield, 9 wins from 27 (33%) +£1,360 to a £100 stake, but had there been 10 losers in a row would you have kept going ? 9 winners 18 losers, but not necessarily in a WLLWLLWLLWLLWLL sequence. If only 3yo’s are followed, then 7 winners from 20 (35%) and a profit of £1,525 but again, spread over 5 seasons.
Finally, how about just looking at each way bets on 8 runner handicap races ? Tomorrow the 3:30 is an 8 runner handicap (at time of writing this). Consitently get a place at 5/1 and you get your money back, get the occasional winner and you are in front.
In short, most of us “oldies” have gone through what you are currently looking at and eventually settled on what suits the individual best. We have given up the dream of making money from this as it involves so much time and effort and most of all – luck. This is why i now look at trends to help me, settle on an amount every Saturday that I can afford to lose and not worry about it and enjoy a weekend from time to time where I make a nice amount of money but in the grand scheme of things, end up losing, i.e. over the course of a year.
Keep looking and trying and I hope you enjoy success, but there is no easy method and are no “quick wins”.
Good luck with your bets !!
Hi Rich, thanks for the reply.
You’re most certainly right, I am predominantly hoping for a big win more than small steady profits. Seems naive and I’m sure as I get older and wiser (with any luck), I’ll find a more stable system of securing profits. I’m 21 currently by the way.
I still find gambling fun, and don’t get myself into any financial trouble with my betting, but of course you’d rather win than lose! I note your comments about sniffing around the strike rates at various courses etc, but my concern is should I go on a losing run of 10 or more (which is not unfathomable by any means as you’ll know), then there goes £1000 down the drain! Or at £10 stakes, £100. You get the picture, but it would feel to me like it will take forever to recoup those losses, and could I continue? Perhaps I’d get to the point where I cut the losses and just stop, but that’s where it would take the fun out for me.
I agree that value is everything when pricing up and evaluating races, but I’m adamant that with the right preparation you can make big wins on single races. Surely, compiling enough evidence to make a solid case for a horse, can warrant a £500 e/w on it, if you’re that confident about it?
My problem is, I can’t be that confident as I don’t have the means of gathering the information. I’ve read many a blog online, and even on here, where people just seem to know when a horse is improving, or when it’s due to run a big race. How do you know?! It boggles my mind
It’s things like that that I’m looking to learn.
I appreciate your help, and will take on board what you’ve said, especially the patience part! I need to learn that, definitely.
Quick review of some of the examples given…
No favourites won at Ayr today, could be the middle of a losing streak ?
One favourite won at Lingfield in a handicap – rare event !!
Roger Varian’s 3yo finished 7th.The 8 runner handicap (Lingfield 3:30) was won by the 3/1 2nd favourite, the placed horses were 6/1 + 7/1 with the favourite 7th. Personally I would have gone for the 3rd favourite e/w and could have backed the 2nd placed horse however another 6/1 shot finished 5th so would I have picked the right one ?
Regarding your comment about finding improving horses, remember that established horses also have their day too. A few years back I latched on to a horse called Pilsudski and won a lot of money following him.
His 2yo record was 68
His 3yo record was 20113
I spotted the consistency at the end of the 3yo season, i.e. 113 and noted this horse for the following year.
As a 4yo his record was 2181121 and 32121211 as a 5yo.The point I am trying to make is that I kept a note of a horse that I had seen racing and watched it several times before making my mind up that this was a talented horse and most of all “a trier” or sometimes called “genuine”. Keeping a notebook might be a good first step and with patience you might start to see some horses performing well consistently. The public and commentators often take to a well liked horse from a notable stable and often horses just as good are not paid as much attention to and not only win their fair share but also tend to be a better price and they are not a popular choice. Remember that bookmaking is all about percentages and not opinions. The likes of Barry Dennis come and go but the main reason for their bravado is that they know people will get drawn in and that’s where they make their money.
There are a lot of Group races over the summer and with Royal Ascot coming up, a lot of trainers are trying to get their horses into shape to stand the best chance. Lots of note taking should be done at this point, your best friends here are your own eyes, trust your own judgement and what you see, not what you hear or read.
Just words of advice, not necessarily wisdom
Maybe another idea is to find a list of Group races for the season and also use sites like Wikipedia to see if races are seen to be those where horses doing well often go on to be targeted at other races. For example, last weekend’s Dante Stakes is often seen a prep race for the Derby and whilst the winner of the Dante may not always go on to do well in the Derby, there might be other runners that take your eye and do well in the Derby.
I just checked the last 6 Dante races and looked to see if there were any notable performances from runners competing that day…
2014 The Grey Gatsby
Did not run in the Derby but won 2 Group 1 races later the same season at 12/1 + 7/12013 Libertarian
2nd in the Derby at 14/1, Trading Leather was 2nd in the Dante but racked up the following sequence 311223 with the 2nd win being the Irish Derby2012 Bonfire
6th in the Derby, nothing worth noting from other runners in the Dante that year2011 Carlton House
3rd in the Derby as 5/2 favourite, Pisco Sour was 3rd in the Dante but 2 races later won the Tercentenary Stakes, a Royal Ascot race at 20/12010 Cape Blanco
Didn’t race in the English Derby but won the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes. 2nd in the Dante that day was Worforce, who won the Derby at 6/12009 Black Bear Island
Black Bear Island was 10th in the Derby, 4th in the Dante that day Monitor Closely won the Great Voltigeur Stakes in July at 28/1Plenty there to show that if you watch the races then you might find one or two worth following.
Good luck with your bets !!
…I just checked the last 6 Dante races and looked to see if there were any notable performances from runners competing that day…
2014 The Grey Gatsby
Did not run in the Derby but won 2 Group 1 races later the same season at 12/1 + 7/12013 Libertarian
2nd in the Derby at 14/1, Trading Leather was 2nd in the Dante but racked up the following sequence 311223 with the 2nd win being the Irish Derby2012 Bonfire
6th in the Derby, nothing worth noting from other runners in the Dante that year2011 Carlton House
3rd in the Derby as 5/2 favourite, Pisco Sour was 3rd in the Dante but 2 races later won the Tercentenary Stakes, a Royal Ascot race at 20/12010 Cape Blanco
Didn’t race in the English Derby but won the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes. 2nd in the Dante that day was Worforce, who won the Derby at 6/12009 Black Bear Island
Black Bear Island was 10th in the Derby, 4th in the Dante that day Monitor Closely won the Great Voltigeur Stakes in July at 28/1Plenty there to show that if you watch the races then you might find one or two worth following.
Good luck with your bets !!
Following on from what I mentioned before, the first 3 in this year’s Dante all ran in the Derby…
Dante 1st: Golden Horn – Derby 1st
Dante 2nd: Jack Hobbs – Derby 2nd
Dante 3rd: Elm Park – Derby 11th (of 12)The one I have taken note of, is Elm Park as I think he is better than the Derby run suggests and it was stated beforehand that the Epsom course might not suit him.
His 4 wins have been at recognised galloping tracks whereas Epsom is known to be different and I think it is worth giving Elm Park another chance, he has ability and currently has entries in the following races…
27 Jun: Irish Derby, Curragh.
4 July: Ecipse, Sandown.
12 Sep: Irish Champion Stakes, Leopardstown.I think of those 3 the last might be a targeted race as Leopardstown is very similar to Newbury (in my opinion) and seems to be the sort of track he prefers. There could be other entries between now and then and I think it is worth keeping an eye out for him as this run in the Derby needs to be forgotten and I think that he has the ability to pick up a nice race at Group 1 or 2 level this year and at a nice price.
Good luck !!
Hi Sebalex,
You are right, technically I do not need to back the number of horses per race. What I am doing is backing any horse I believe is value. Can be 1, 2, 3, or more selections in a race. With usually what I consider the very best value bet/s in a race being the “main bet/s”, where as what I consider the lesser value bets are only saver bets (getting back what I’d lose on the main bet/s). Confidence is vital. When losing confidence I subconciously don’t look at races in same profitable manner. I could concentrate only on the very best value bets and ditch the savers, but length of losing runs would increase dramatically, confidence is lost leading to a total loss of profit. You might be one of those people who can handle very long losing runs, unfortunately I can’t and when betting professionally need to do what suits me and my temperament.
As you so rightly said, “value is everything”. Being able to look at a price and immediately see it as a percentage allows you to identify and act swiftly when a price is right. This table of odds and percentages should be learnt off by heart.
Be careful in trying to find short cuts to profit. To work, a trend must identify something that has not been allowed for by bookmakers odds compilers, or at least not allowed enough for. There will still be losing runs and also there will eventually be a time when bookmakers cotton on to the trend/system. So how do you decide when to carry on through a supposed “losing run”?… And when do you stop because it is no longer a profitable trend/system?
For me, there are “trend” like things I take in to account in conjunction with my “form study”. One is Trainers In Form. Take a look at Jim Goldie:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/profiles/trainer/342/j-s-goldie
Pace In The Race is another important aspect: Look at the form of the horses in the 3:30 Ayr yesterday:
8 of the 11 horses usually either raced prominently or tracked pace, with plenty of competition for the lead. So it was highly likely to be a truly/strongly run race suiting those held up…Jim Goldie’s Tiger Jim was one of the three hold up horses. So this in form trainer’s horse was likely to be suited by the way the race is run. He had also run well last time with (according to Timeform) a career best performance, ie on the upgrade. Form suggested equally effective at 7f or truly run 6f. Tiger Jim came from last to first @ 15/2 SP.
It is also often worth opposing horses whose trainers are out of form and/or backing front/prominent runners when there’s little competition for the lead and/or a horse that both settles well and has speed at shorter trips (has speed to kick). Beware; horses finishing faster than others are not necessarily showing a “turn of foot”; often it is staying on – slowing down at a lesser rate.
Hope that helps.
Value Is EverythingThanks mate, really appreciate the help. I’ve been away from the horses for a little while whilst trying to build a proper points system to maximise profits, or at least keep them consistent against my bank balance. If you saw my thread in DLAP, you’ll see my stakes are a little all over the place.
I do admire your eye for creating your own book though, I’ve been trying to do this for a while but the only problem is, you cannot know if you are right. So I’d imagine there would be a lot of costly errors involved in this. Usually I can look at a race and disqualify at least a couple straight off the bat, but then if I was compiling a book I’d have to give those disqualified horses some odds to ensure that the book was in fact accurate?
Regards the turn of foot, I actually heard the same thing you said on a racing podcast last week. Difficult to work out sometimes whether it is indeed a sharp turn of foot or not, but all down to experience I guess.
Thanks for the help, and good luck to yourself.
Good post GT, lots of advice in there worth noting in my opinion.
Just one more thing to note I think Sebalex, theory is all well and good but actually putting the money down is a very different proposition, especially if you start playing with bigger amounts. I had to really hold back on Golden Horn in the Derby and in the end settled on £40 at 7/4 but in years gone by I could easily have added a zero to that stake. Keeping a note of that type of bet doesn’t hurt as much as the real thing, so the advice given about patience becomes very relevant at all times.
Starting small and building up slowly allows a punter to build up a bank and if you can get into a profitable position, staking money that you have won from previous bets hurts far less than straight from your own wallet.
As my old mate Stevie used to say “keep it sensible !!” and he always had a few bob in his pocket.
Good luck.
and if you can get into a profitable position, staking money that you have won from previous bets hurts far less than straight from your own wallet.
Not for me it doesn’t Rich. I don’t regard money I’ve won as someone else’s money. It is mine, I’ve earnt it. Hurts just as much.
Value Is EverythingThanks mate, really appreciate the help. I’ve been away from the horses for a little while whilst trying to build a proper points system to maximise profits, or at least keep them consistent against my bank balance. If you saw my thread in DLAP, you’ll see my stakes are a little all over the place.
I do admire your eye for creating your own book though, I’ve been trying to do this for a while but the only problem is, you cannot know if you are right. So I’d imagine there would be a lot of costly errors involved in this. Usually I can look at a race and disqualify at least a couple straight off the bat, but then if I was compiling a book I’d have to give those disqualified horses some odds to ensure that the book was in fact accurate?
Regards the turn of foot, I actually heard the same thing you said on a racing podcast last week. Difficult to work out sometimes whether it is indeed a sharp turn of foot or not, but all down to experience I guess.
Thanks for the help, and good luck to yourself.
Correct. When producing 100% books, you do not know if any indivdual book is right. It is only after a considerable number of bets – if in profit – can anyone know they are right overall… And even then, if profit is achieved through one or two big wins it could still be a coincidence.
tbh I do not produce 100% books anywhere near as often as used to; although am glad I did so many in the past. Gave me a grounding/instinct that’s enabled me to identify value without the need for a 100% book every time.
However, must say – along with my own knowledge – have been a Timeform subscriber for many years and would find it impossible to evaluate form in to chance without using Timeform Race Passes. Even then, it took me a year or two to understand how to analyse form.
Value Is EverythingThanks both once again. Rich I’d agree on the starting slow, I was thinking of banking £130 from my DLAP thread out of the accounts, and starting a scheme of mixed stakes based on confidence.
I like GT’s setup, where his points system more often than not provide a cover (saver as he calls it) to avoid complete losses on a race. An example of when this can go wrong is the 3:55 yesterday at Salisbury, but of course instances like that will always crop up. But I’m still yet to come up with something I’m comfortable with.
I was also going to ask about that, if anybody was subscribed to soruces like timeform, racingpost etc. Do you find them really beneficial or is it really recycled information that can be found elsewhere on the internet? I could do without another monthly subscription in my life!
Thanks both once again. Rich I’d agree on the starting slow, I was thinking of banking £130 from my DLAP thread out of the accounts, and starting a scheme of mixed stakes based on confidence.
I like GT’s setup, where his points system more often than not provide a cover (saver as he calls it) to avoid complete losses on a race. An example of when this can go wrong is the 3:55 yesterday at Salisbury, but of course instances like that will always crop up. But I’m still yet to come up with something I’m comfortable with.
I was also going to ask about that, if anybody was subscribed to soruces like timeform, racingpost etc. Do you find them really beneficial or is it really recycled information that can be found elsewhere on the internet? I could do without another monthly subscription in my life!
In my opinion a good form book (eg Timeform Race Passes or Raceform Interactive) is essential for long term consistent profit. ie Over many thousands of betting races. Very much doubt whether the Racing Post (even with the paid for stuff) is good enough.
Without my Timeform it would take many hours PER RACE to garner all information needed and that would be unrealistic/boring. Unless relying on “luck” and we are trying to take luck out of it because luck will eventually run out. Lots of punters think they are “studying form” but often wonder whether some punters realise what is involved in studying form successfully.
Value Is Everything
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