- This topic has 73 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 3 weeks, 2 days ago by
.
- Posts
I’m in BS34, so just across ‘the bridge’ from Chepstow, and the ground is sticky rather than sodden, so with a keen Easterly wind setting in over the coming days, one would expect the ground to dry out somewhat by Saturday.
O’Connell 10-1 ew 4 places
I don’t think he’ll be as inconvenienced as some if the ground gets quicker than soft.
Rock My Way is one i’m likely to bet Sat morn; looked last night on oddschecker and price had shortened a little, but i feel we’re now at the stage where the bookies will shorten many, only to lengthen the odds on Sat morn.
So i’m holding out, for now.Rock My Way was (and still may be) on my radar as well but when I looked at the racecard and the ones above him (Intense Raffles, Mr Vango, Haiti Couleurs, Nassalam, Monbeg Genius) I thought ‘will the ones above him run if the ground quickens up’, which means Rock My way would have to carry 12 stone if they don’t. So will see what final decs look like first to see who stands their ground.
Yeah, good point, Mike
I looked at all the horses last night re form, with initial emphasis on ground preference, and there are certainly a fair number who could easily be withdrawn up to raceday, if ground conditions ‘lose’ some of the present ‘soft’.
Mike007 the ground is drying out and dry forecast let’s just hope those above don’t all come out
VF x
I’m gonna have an each way crack with Tanganyika
I can write off the Sandown race because he often needs a couple of runs after a break
Connections must surely be thinking about the National so he’s on the type of mark that needs to rise several pounds before the weights come out and this is the ideal race.CHEPSTOW
GOING: Good to soft
40.8% Moisture
Chase: Good to Soft (GSt 6.1 on Fri 7:00am)
Hurdle: Good to Soft (GSt 6.0 on Fri 7:00am)
Rails: Shared bends, moved on to fresh ground. 2m and 2m3f races +24yds; 3m +39yds; WGN 3m6f +48yds
Boxing Day course update: 0mm Rain Thursday; 4.6mm past week; Forecast – No significant rain for next 7 days – Friday mostly cloudy but Cold NE wind continuing (6*), Keeping above freezing overnight (2-3*), Saturday sunny intervals in morning, cloudy in afternoon with a moderate NE breeze, (8*).
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunnyAdded
Uncle Bert 18s win only (Free bet)
Beaufort Scale 75s each way (boosted price and 1st 5)
I saw Intense Raffles on offer at 22/1 to 5 places and thought it a crazily generous price. Then I logged into the Betfair Exchange and saw it at the win only price of 84/1. It was only for small money, but that’s what I bet in so I picked off the prices as they dropped in £1 and £2 bets.
Intesnse Raffles has 12 stones here, and many will put a stroke through the horse on that basis alone. But Native River won it with 11.12 in 2018, then Elegant Escape with 11.8 in 2016. It can be done by a classy horse. Intense Raffles is just 7 but has lots of experience.
He moved from France to Tom Gibney in Ireland in January last year and won his first three races, including the Irish Grand National carrying 11.4 – Grand National winner Nick Rockett back in 7th. Intense Raffles had a couple of outings over hurdles after that before running Nick Rockett to under a length in the Bobbyjo, giving that one 3lbs.
He was well backed for the Grand National but suffered interference and looked like he didn’t take to the track. He was pulled up. Early last month he reappeared at Clonmel over a much inadequate 20f, well beaten in 3rd behind Il Etait Temps.
He ran much better next time when 8th of 24 at Newbury in the old Hennessy, trying to give the winner Panic Attack 21 pounds. That trip would have been inadequate for him too, but the race should have put him spot on for this. Bryony Frost comes from France to ride (she is the retained rider for owers Munir & Souede in France). Other than Charlie Deutsch, you could not choose a better rider in a marathon chase, where rhythm means so much. His prominent racing style should also suit this race.
He’s far and away the best value to my eye, but I’ll have exchange bets too on the following:
Collectors Item – around 12/1. His two most recent runs have been the best of his career, suggesting he is improving. He was 2nd last time to Jubilee Express and he is another who races prominently.
You might get about 7/1 about Jubilee Express on Betfair and given his 2nd in this race last year, it seems obvious his Welsh connections targeted him from that day with nothing else in mind but winning this year. He comes into the race bang in form.
Livin On Luco, reunited with 3lb claimer Callum Pritchard improved last time for his first attempt at a marathon trip when winning the Southern National at Fontwell 6 weeks ago. A change to front running tactics that day might also have helped. He should be about 50/1 on Betfair.
Finally, Martin Keighley is a renowned trainer of stayers, and has a most unusual contender in Hung Jury, who’s about to turn 11 yet began his career under rules only this year. He was formerly a very succesful point to pointer. He too will be about 50/1 on Betfair Exchange.
Good luck
Joe
It’s a neat lineup with plenty you can make cases for.
I’ll go with Git Maker and Haiti Couleurs, the latter being a level above these if at his best.
I’ll kick myself for it later, but I’ll have a small go on Nassalam at a price now he’s finally back to a reasonable mark.
With the ground weirdly decent at Chepstow for once, I’m sticking with the classier horses to carry the weight.
Haiti Couleurs is my main fancy – 7/1 w/o fav & 13/1 win
Mr Vango – 8/1 w/o fav & 12/1 win
Small stake on Intense Raffles at 49/1
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.