Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Welsh National 2011
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November 28, 2011 at 11:52 #20359
Any thoughts on who you guys think will win.
November 28, 2011 at 12:16 #380013Fabalu to win, already got a few quid on up to 65’s, and Ballyfitz each way for me.
I’ll have to take Fab on trust, as he’s returning from a break, but encouraging to see him entered. One of my favourite horses, it’d be great to see him land this. Been waiting to see him in something like this for a while now.
As for Ballyfitz, he alway just seems to miss out on the big win in these chases, but I’d be quite confident he’d place in this.
November 28, 2011 at 13:57 #380025If, as it normally does, it comes up soft/heavy Synchronised will take all the beating. Possibly Carruthers will make him go some now that they are going this route but i’d be very happy with 6s about a 3/1 fav come the day
November 28, 2011 at 16:10 #380046Synchronised will very likely run, so should go down as an EW punt to nothing currently at 7/1 is a fantastic opportunity.
November 28, 2011 at 20:42 #380087Most likely be the only race Synchronised will win this season.
Jonjo will be training him as hard as a heavyweight boxer about to face Muhammad Ali.
Giles Cross will no doubt run a decent race but if it comes up soft I couldn’t back against the Jackdaw slugger.
November 28, 2011 at 21:19 #380094Made a note about a horse called Stoneys Treasure for the Welsh last year.
November 29, 2011 at 10:53 #380144Am loving the ‘Jackdaw Slugger’
December 12, 2011 at 15:21 #382310As De Fer
Course, distance and going should be no problem. Is it up to this class ? Possibly
Neptune Equester
Can understand the lure of the Grand National but think this race would be better. Loves soft going, stays all days, lovely weight, nice prep. Better chance all round than in April.
Giles Cross
Obvious chance of going one better.
December 13, 2011 at 13:46 #382492I’m a silly Billy – it’s not N Collongues is it!
Looking no further than Vic Dartnall’s Giles Cross and N T-D’s Viking Blonde. Both mudlarks who stay and jump well at the head of affairs. Both have solid course form. I’m hoping the weights only rise by 3lbs (Neptune Collongues likely adsentee). Would have to reassess if either carries more than 10 stone 10 pounds. My wager is enough of a stopper.
December 13, 2011 at 15:37 #382500Made a note about a horse called Stoneys Treasure for the Welsh last year.
Go on then, what did it say?
December 14, 2011 at 06:36 #382597Good feature on The Racing Post YouTube channel with a feature on this race, Galaxy Rock, Neptune Equester and Harry the Viking put up.
December 14, 2011 at 18:49 #382659That’s just it, Hurdygurdyman; he’s not in it [will check him out on TRP]. List says Minella Four Star [National]; sadly deceased. Unaccompanied [when it runs on the flat]. It did, and it won and, yes, I forgot to back it. Stoney’s Treasure [Welsh Nationa]. And Conor O’Farrell.
December 15, 2011 at 21:23 #382802The magic sign make Carruthers joint 7/1 favourite now.
I did Synchronise when the prices first came out, but I did Carruthers soon after at 12s, which you can still get.
On 152 (11.3 at the moment), he’ll be running at 4lbs below his highest mark, and he’s apparently strenghtened up, since last year. Loves the heavy and acts on the course, having beaten What A Friend in a class 4 hurdle in his second ever race, albeit in a very slow time on gs.
December 15, 2011 at 21:44 #382804Cappa Bleu the fly in this particularly sticky ointment for me – if right back to best would have a great chance.
Wymott is interesting and I wouldn’t rule out Blazing Bailey
December 15, 2011 at 23:54 #382817I did get a fair price about Cappa Bleu early, but wouldn’t fancy him unless Carruthers fails. I’d forgotten about him.
I also have some on Beautiful Sound, though I suspect he’ll go for the PaddyPower. I took 10s though, and he’s now 16s!
What interested me about him was the fact that he travelled all the way round on the wide outside when beaten a sh hd by Shakalakaboomboom.
December 17, 2011 at 20:50 #383053Though he has a big weight i like CHICAGO GREY 20/1
Though he not been to Chepstow he has won at Cheltenham. and he likes tracks like this and i hope he be picking them up as he flys home.
December 18, 2011 at 19:03 #383164My pick is going to be Any Currency at 25/1. I quite fancied him for this last year, but he sadly got injured in the lead up to the race. He’s still only 8yo, & because of his injury, is fairly lightly-raced.
Earlier in his career, he’s chased home some decent horses, like Midnight Chase, The Tother One, Poker De Sivola & The Package, in top staying handicaps at Cheltenham (including at the festival). Some of those horses have since proved they were very well handicapped at the time.
Whilst I doubt Any Currency could out-class horses like those (or even out-class the class horses in this years WN), I think there’s a fair chance he could out-stay them. Imo he’s still fairly rated on OR133 (similar to the rating he ran those good placed efforts from). If that rating gets him into the Welsh National, he will end up with a very light weight.
The worries are:
His comeback run at Sandown was his first for over a year, & is that going to set him back. I thought he was trying very hard & stayed on well, when imo clearly needing the run. Is one run enough to get him fit for this gruelling test though.Also I think they want to run in the Aintree Grand National, so whether they throw everything at him for this race, I’m not sure. In saying that, I think he’d need to win this or something similar to get into the Grand National.
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