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Trends are useful in identifying the type of horse that wins a certain race and also in identifying the level of form that a horse is likely to be required to run up to to win such a race. What we know about draw and track biases are also based on historical data i.e. trends.
The trends than annoy me are when people say about a race being a good/bad race for favourites. As though such an arbitrary factor has any relevance on the outcome of a race.
Isnt the colour of the jockeys silks or whetehr it was full moon or not a trend too? ;)
Paul Jones does an e mail update on every evening whilst Cheltenham is on. <br>Following the selections blindly to a level stake made 30 points profit win only s.p last year. <br>The level stake profit in season 2004 was 28 points.<br>There were also some selections at big prices getting placed.
Arrived on Saturday morning – I’m a virgin and I’ve not put it down since.
His piece on the X country chase is especially illuminating for me as I used to think it was a crock. His logic is pretty much unerring and if you want a way of knocking out the highly unlikelys it is a must.
The amount of times I’ve been faced with the Coral Cup, the Pertemps and the County Hurdle and thought – oh, I can’t be arsed. It does make life easier and will allow me a little extra time in bed to recover from the hangovers knowing he’s done most of my work for me!
Arrived on Saturday morning – I’m a virgin and I’ve not put it down since.
Well, being a virgin, you’re not going to have a woman to distract you….. ;)
I got my copy about a week ago.
It’s the 4th year in a row I’ve bought it and I it’s an important part of my festival prep.
For me, it’s an opinion I respect and, when I want to go against it (e.g. with Moscow Flyer last year), I need to convince myself that my opinion is stronger than the trends.
Steve
Quote: from clivex on 10:05 am on Mar. 6, 2006[br]Isnt the colour of the jockeys silks or whetehr it was full moon or not a trend too? ;) <br>
<br>Indeed it is and my favourite one is grey horses and those with blinkers in the National – no chance.
Stevedvg, will you be going against the trends on MF again this year?
No chance!
I went against the age stat last year because, as far as I could see, the horse was showing no sign of losing his speed or ability.
Azerty & WC were both decent contenders, but there was 7/4 against MF in the morning, which I thought was way too generous, so I got on.
This season we’ve seen a serious decline in his ability so the logic behind the stat makes sense.
After yesterday, his odds have gone out and there must be a point where he becomes backable, but I don’t think he’ll reach that point (due to sentiment).
Steve
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EC<br> You must assume all members are ‘pig ignorant’ to try and pull a stroke like that; you then compound your blatant advertising by dragging a perfectly acceptable and interesting thread through the mire to try and  justify your highly questionable motives.<br> If that is your idea of ‘standards’, then you are in no position to lecture others.:(
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<br> Fortunately, your facility for editing away the truth does not extend to altering the times of other member’s posts.<br> Tell me again about ‘standards’.:biggrin:
How is my thread any different to this?
If we discovered that newcastleviana was a friend of the writer of the Festival Betting guide, then I imagine that most people here would believe that his post was intended to help his friend by bringing attention to his book.
Steve
(Edited by stevedvg at 11:38 pm on April 8, 2006)
The book is in the public domain..it’s on the internet.. <br>how can i bring it to people’s attention when it’s already known?…doh.
Are we not allowed to mention or discuss any of AP’s books or Andrew Mounts either or Nick Mordins or Andrew Beyers?
For the record..I’ve never met Peter Stavers..I know him as well as all of you do on here.
So..another forum rule from the worthies on here
YOU ARE DISHONEST IF YOU MENTION A BOOK IF IT IS WRITTEN BY SOMEONE YOU HAVE COMMUNICATED WITH OVER THE INTERNET.
I was real surprised you agreed with RH, Steve
what a forum..no wonder no one apart from the same few folk ever post…others probably can’t believe the clannish carry on here..so biased it smells
You asked me a question.
I answered it.
And now your toys are out the pram and all over the floor.
Your attempt to equate this thread with that other thread is logically flawed. At your request, I pointed out why.
And now you’re upset.
Could you have brought this upon yourself?
Steve
EC
As I’m obviously going to have to take a lot of s**t
from you and your friend, I might as well point out this "incongruity":Today you said:
I know him [Stav] as well as all of you do on here.
a few weeks ago (on the Redcar draw thread), you said:
the problem you have RH..Stav is smart..and there are 100’s maybe 1000’s of folk who have read and profited from his stuff for 6 years on numerous boards, very recently on EBA board..he’s helped many people off the boards as well.
…
You are out of your depth with this guy..he’ll leave you in bits..he’s forgotten more about racing than you look capable of ever learning with your blinkered, hackneyed view of the game.
Is it just me, or is there a contradiction here?
Of course, now you’re going to attack me, rather than address the actual point I’ve brought up here.
You asked a question. I answered it.
You can have the rest of this thread to yourselves. I’m off to post about horseracing on a board you’re not a part of.
Steve
Whats going on here?
do i take it that some see this thread as being a sort of promotion for the excelent book?
If so, thats plain stupid
Th thread has been positive about the publiciation but thats because it is good!. Amongst this lot their was more potential for a slagging off if it wasnt uip to standard
Look at the Sportsman threads…
Or have i got this wrong?<br>
EC
What is it with you?
You ask a question, you get a straight forward answer and, rather that address the answer, you start with the insults.
When I first saw the other thread, I thought it was spam.
For 3 reasons:
(1) Your comments on other threads led me to believe that you and Stav go back a long way (even if that was only online).
(2) You and Stav have been "bigging each other up" a hell of a lot over the last few weeks and it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a continuation of this.
(3) You described the book as being "by Peter Stavers", but never connected that name with "Stav" from this forum. An interesting decision.
I happened to know the two were the same. But many on this forum wouldn’t have known it was the same person.
That is to say, they wouldn’t have known that it was someone you have obviously got some form of long term association with.
Now, if you read a comment about a book and you think the reviewer doesn’t know the writer, that’s one thing. If you read a review and you know the reviewer knows the writer, it’s very different.
And that’s a fact.<br> <br>Now, the forum gets spammed from time to time and I usually just leave the thread alone. I saw no reason to do any different with this one and never responded to it.
You then revived this thread and asked a question on it.
I replied to your question with an answer which I believe to be fair and even handed.
Here’s the post in full:
How is my thread any different to this?
If we discovered that newcastleviana was a friend of the writer of the Festival Betting guide, then I imagine that most people here would believe that his post was intended to help his friend by bringing attention to his book.
I’d be surprised if anyone here actually disagrees with that statement.
Then, and maybe you want to explain why, instead of addressing that very simple point, you went on the attack.
Of course, as usual, you pretend your attack is really defense.
However, as I just said, I doubt anyone would actually disagree with the very simple statement I made.
And, in your attack, you claimed "I know him as well as all of you do on here"
Which is clearly nonsense.
While I’m sure there are people who know him well from racing forums, I don’t.
Until recent weeks where he started posting frequently on here, I can only remember seening a handful of posts of his and that was a couple of years ago.
(unless he posts on the other forum I still read, in which case, I don’t know what his ID is there)
So, I’m sure a large number of people here didn’t have a clue who he was. So, it seems false to claim you only know him as well as everyone else.
Unless this whole forum are spending their time away from TRF hanging around other internet racing forums
And to address your question:
There are plenty of other boards Steve though aren’t there?
Yes there are.
And to address your implied point, I participate in/read 1 other racing forum. And, I post about once a week.
Steve
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