- This topic has 71 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 6 months, 1 week ago by
.
-
Posts
-
usually lose, but one year… Une Artiste at 40-1, and Paul Carberry’s ride of the century on Bellvano 20-1
“I agree with Ginger – I wouldn’t be looking for big prices in the handicaps. Horses towards the top end of the market tend to win them.”
You’d make a decent profit every recent year backing every horse 30.0 or bigger on the exchange in the handicaps
I’m well down ante post, after the defections of Marine Nationale, Constitution Hill and Impaire Et Passe. Mirazur West is another of mine to miss the meeting, although I notice that he’s running at Naas tomorrow.
I backed a few horses for the wrong races, but I’m still sitting on a couple of nice ante post bets, so things could still turn around.
Mixed bag but for me, a few NRs, but also the Big Bs – Ballyburn and Banbridge – at double-digit odds, State Man at 6/1 plus those shockingly-amoral negative Constitution Hill bets and I’ve not entirely given up on my 20/1 Fastorslow if the ground dries out and they go fast enough to give the fav’s jumping a sterner examination than it was in the deep Leopardstown mud on his last two starts.
If anyone asked me for advice on betting at this meeting – or generally – I’d say this: “Betting is for grown ups, so bet in a grown-up way. Every losing bet is on YOU, so don’t blame the CoC for a wrong ground description (validate it for yourself), don’t blame the trainer for running a horse on the wrong ground (most trainers wouldn’t know their horses’s best ground from a jug of milk, plus every runner is a free bet for them), don’t blame a jockey for a bad ride (you knew who was riding it when you had your bet), don’t blame a tipster/pundit for a losing tip when you were too lazy/dim-witted to form your own independent view and, less relevant at the Festival, don’t even blame the integrity of the sport if your horses drifts and gets a quiet ride – blame yourself for failing to identify and swerve a potential non-trier.
OWN your bets – it’s the only way in the long run if you want to keep your head above water.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Luck is a factor in betting, both good, and bad. It’s out of your control, but it would be wrong to pretend it doesn’t exist. Good luck will not obviously follow bad luck, and vice-versa.
Any jock can mess up. You can’t just avoid every jock in the weighing room, otherwise you would be giving up betting. I really don’t like the term pocket talking. If it’s a bad it should be called out. I don’t see why it’s ‘grown up’ to just ignore it. We already have a sport dominated by endless cheerleading. The bad – particularly bad rides – is so often airbrushed. Unless of course a jock happens to be on the other side of the world.
As for the ground, I find it quite difficult to walk the track from my armchair. You are not going to get times until after the first race. If the clerk has called it wrong it shouldn’t be just ignored.
I see no reason why any horse should be getting a ‘quiet ride’ next week.
Blaming someone else for getting it wrong will neither get you your money back nor stop them getting it wrong again in the future.
Be mindful of everyone’s historical shortcomings when betting, that’s all.
And you don’t need to walk the course to be able to work out what the ground is without listening to a CoC – all the data you need is out there if you know how to gather and analyse it.
I will leave it at that – good luck with your bets this week everyone!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Agree with all that ID apart from “don’t blame a jockey for a bad ride (you knew who was riding it when you had your bet)”.
If you back a horse ridden by an inexperienced jockey, or one with a poor record around Cheltenham (especially at the festival), then fair enough. That should be taken into consideration when you have your bet.
But if a jockey like Townend, Blackmore, Kennedy or De Boinville was to ride a poor race on a favourite or well fancied horse, I don’t think it is unreasonable for punters to call it out.
Luck does play a part
for example some bloke from work asked me for a tip
How unlucky was that…
Blackbeard to conquer the World
“But if a jockey like Townend, Blackmore, Kennedy or De Boinville was to ride a poor race on a favourite or well fancied horse, I don’t think it is unreasonable for punters to call it out.”
Absolutely call it out, but if it becomes a habit maybe downgrade that jockey in your estimation and factor that into your betting and what odds you’re prepared to take would be my suggestion there, CAS.
We can’t ever stop jockeys giving horses poor rides, but we can stop taking short odds about their mounts if we think they make too much of a habit of it.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"My pet hate is people who back David maxwell rides then moan when it comes second as he’s so weak in a finish
You knew that would be the case going in
You can’t blame him, only yourself
Fair play to the guy, seriously expensive hobby to have and he wins plenty
Fair enough, ID. As you say, mistakes do happen and one bad ride does not make them a bad jockey.
The thing which does annoy me (as Stilvi alludes to) is the racing media is very reluctant to say anything critical about those sort of jockeys because it does not want to upset their connections but has no hesitation in criticising foreign jockeys or young conditionals who they are not relying on for a quote.
I completely agree – and I am sure many of us still remember Yutaka Take on White Muzzle in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe.
Things were said and written about him in the UK racing broadcast/print media that would never ever be said about a domestic jockey.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The late Adam Kondrat received much criticism from certain quarters for The Fellow being a close second in two Gold Cups with the feeling being another jockey would have won on him.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
When assessing whether a ride is a bad one, a punter must first consider what was known about all the runners beforehand. eg If there looked to be a lot of pace horses in the race beforehand, only one horse can ever be in front. Therefore saying the rider should have led from the start like it did to win its last start, is wrong.
Likewise, if a rider races more prominently than usual and the horse does not show its form. If it looked beforehand there was not much pace in the race, then it was probably understandable for the jockey to change tactics – whether it worked or not… etc etc.
Value Is EverythingAs in life, the responsibility for a tip (or advice) lies with the person who accepts it.
Today I set my stall out, Imperial Cup day is normally good for me. Seven horses backed win only none even achieved a place. Bodes well for Tuesday.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.