We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

[sporting sam]

Lingfield
2.55
JULIE JOHNSTON
Each way

Touched off on stable debut here by the favourite.
Went to Kempton and unplaced in a better race.
Drawn widest of all here and George Rooke replaces tom Marquand.
Outsiders chance here.

[sporting sam]

Bumper
3pm
Leopardstown
4 – Carrigmoorna Queen win w/o the favourite

4 – Carrigmoorna Queen win.
Gordon Elliott’s runner was a runner up to the model king in a listed race. All of Willie Mullin’s bumper runners have been classy this week and this one at 11/4 3/1 is worth a risky punt with the added insurance of a win without the Elliott runner.

[sporting sam]

Settled

Lost

4 – Carrigmoorna Queen @ 11/4 3/1
Win

15.00 Punchestown

Single @ 5/6
Suspended Why is this?
Potential Returns:

Settled

Won

4 – Carrigmoorna Queen W/O Harmonya Maker @ 5/6
Bet Without

15.00 Punchestown
Single @ 2/5
Suspended Why is this?
Potential Returns:

Settled

Won

9 – Harmonya Maker @ 2/5
Win

15.00 Punchestown
The Elliott horse was running too well not to back in running so two winners there.

[sporting sam]

Lingfield
3.25.

Thaki
Champagne supanova
Both win
Two horses in Winning form and no reason opposing them against runners fishing for better handicap marks.

3.40
Uttoxetter
Bumper
Magheroarty Star
Each way
Fancy your chances
Win
Round up
Tote Trifecta- £229.24
Changed to £208.40 not for the first time.
More tricasts will be landed hopefully in January.
Pied Piper looks a future star
HMS seahorse was placed @ 40/1
In Rem
Was a cosy winner with plenty in hand
Brosna Rocco
Darver star
Won in emphatic style
Bumpers
Carrigmoorna Queen followed the impressive
Harmonya maker and was a winner in betting without the winner.
Magheroarty Star was 3rd at 10/1 from 14s in the final bumper of the year.
The horse to take out of today other than those highlighted is Kodi Gold for David Evans at Lingfield
heavily backed and missed the break and dwelt at the start. Came from an impossible position at the end and may have won by many lengths if breaking evenly. Won a gamble at Yarmouth previously on debut for yard and old yard placed in same race with a horse that had previously shown very little..

[sporting sam]

Here we are again.
February was an interesting month selections wise.
Plenty of winners including at least six yesterday ranging from 20/1 over the jumps to a 101 rated group horse and an emerging star in Million reasons.
The trick now is to bring it all together.
The bumpers and soul selections are ticking over nicely, but turning a profit has been difficult.
March is where everything converges, the flat the jumps the all weather. The introduction of thousands of new runners confuses things somewhat.
There are lots of things to touch on going forward. The existence of physics in racing and it’s inevitable influence on the outcome of races where everyone is trying.
It is a powerful force not as yet exploited in my selections but hopefully march will see a few forecasts and tricasts landed through its use.
I’ve run selections in tandem with Hugh Taylors picks recently. I am not in opposition to his choices and often agree with them but obviously close analysis of his races throw up extreme value for obvious reasons.
If you have Betfair you can back his selections when they come out at 9 am and then get a gauranteed profit later.
That is not the game I play but that is one angle.

[sporting sam]

Different approach for March.

Catterick
1pm
Handicap hurdle
BUSY STREET
Each way (5places)
JELSKI
Win
An opportunity under Charlotte Jones off near top weight to improve here.
Just three pounds higher than last win with jockeys claim taking the horse under that mark. Near rival has to find 33 lengths on last meeting.
Busy street an early faller last time so horse has travelled weight free.

[sporting sam]

Busy street just two lengths or so off fifth place. Interesting that the first three home were all located in the weight band covered by the two absentees.

130 Catterick
Nero Rock
Win without cornerstone lad.
2/1.
Mackenburg may be good enough to concede weight but cornerstone lad gets 18lbs here.
My selection gets weight from both and ran into an improver last time.

[sporting sam]

STAR OF RORY
Win
Leicester
1.50
Heavy ground course and distance winner off
Three pounds lower.
Bottom weight here and a stone better off with the top weight from their last meeting at Bangor in November. The selection does have to make up 31 lengths but this is his course.

[sporting sam]

Easily the ride of the day and unlikely to be bettered.
STAR OF Rory was head on toes at the third last. Not only did he recover but he went on and when challenged found more and more.
Sensible stake on too Rather than tuppence hapenny. Won 3/1

[sporting sam]

Shalke
Win
3.50
This horse was on my tracker for a good eighteen months and he’d put up some decent runs in bumpers.
If a horse doesn’t win it soon falls off the radar. The key to this horse is the distance and he got it last time under Brian Hughes for a maiden win. Ginger mail the runner up soon franked the form winning next time out.
Up six pounds and the step up in trip accounts for that and if held up and kept handy can pull right away from two out.
WYNFORD
Also a distance lover gets the each way vote.

[sporting sam]

Carries top weight here and is rated well clear of his rivals.
Good third over further to decent opponents.
Suggests this drop back in trip is ideal.
Win
BROTHER PAT
3.15
CATTERICK

[sporting sam]

4.05

This looks a straight match between marhrscuda and pure vision.
I’ve backed them both pre race here.
It should be off now so watch and back in running either horse depending on how it plays out.

[sporting sam]

A workmanlike win for the Skelton horse and decent in running play there on a half decent first leg of runs for the restored old thread.

[sporting sam]

4.35

Final hunter chase here at wet Leicester.
There is a choice between a serial placer who was 150/1 third in this race last year and a near odds on favourite who was 31 lengths in arrears in this race to the selection last year.
BARRACK HILL
Each way

[sporting sam]

5.20

Cusack has clear claims but there is no guarantee he will appreciate the track or the step up four furlongs.
MR COCO BEAN
Each way
Is proven over the trip.
CUSACK
Small Win
Joe Fanning takes the ride on the course specialist his only run of the day.

[sporting sam]

5.50

PURPLE POWER
Win
Was sent on to win last time but ended up a beaten favourite when tackled by Million reasons, whose jockey dropped the rein.
How much in hand that runner has remains a huge question. Won again last night.
The returning
KEY LOOK
A winner here 130 days ago when last seen gets the each way vote.
Along
With
FAR FROM A RUBY
EW
The top weight

[sporting sam]

I think Hollie thought she had that one in the bag and was relaxed going for the line…
You have to forgive her that one on any other day she’d have won.

[Author]

Posts