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Speedy Filly has had six outings and the form line reads 134120
Actuary,
I did wonder if that was what you meant, sorry. With that consistency rating it would stand at 13. If it was one of the lowest five c/r’s in the race I would then look at the chances of the horse being a probable. With a 0 last time out the chances of it being a probable would be very slim.
Right, or wrong I work on the consistency rating being based on the last three finishing positions in races only, without making any allowances. If for argument sake instead of a 0 the last race had been 1 or 2 making a c/r of 4/5 (and every chance of being a probable). When moving on to assessing form only the form from turf would be taken in a race on turf, and of course only the A/W form if an A/W race.
I think perhaps it should be said I don’t use the usual ability rating. I think that was introduce at a later stage to make up for the fact VDW wasn’t prepared to explain in detail his rating(s). I think that rating was the original ability rating.
Be Lucky
Why do’nt the ladies get involved as Mtoto says,it would be nice to hear it from their point of view.
In my view, the reason why so few have made progress in understanding and implementing the ideas of Che Van Der Wheil is that much of the valuable information which he had to impart was conveyed with great subtlety. This meant that much of what he wrote had to be researched thoroughly and a lot of thought had to be given to the results of that research.
I doubt very much indeed whether any such information will ever be disclosed in so ingenious a fashion again. He had many knockers and precious little thanks when one considers just what he was really saying.
Goodlife
I very much agree, and hence the words "… and capability" in my comment on Mr Kildare’s interesting post.
The material Tony Peach has published includes some letters thanking VDW for his efforts, but not many. I can’t help feeling that when VDW wrote vis-a-vis his Old Newton Cup evaluation that "It would seem that the object of the exercise was lost, which is a pity and a waste of my efforts – because had it been understood it would have carried readers a long way" he could equally accurately have used those words to refer to many readers’ inability to understand his work at all.
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