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Mtoto,
I thought the idea was to give the a good general idea of what VDW was/is about, basically I don’t think that is what is happening so I had my say.
For the cost of a few quid and a couple of hours anyone who is interested can have the answer to the above. It’s bad enough people wanting to be spoon-fed the detail about VDW let alone the basics.
I have to say I find it very strange you and others didn’t have more to say on the form aspect.
I can’t speak for others, however as I stated on the other thread regarding posting selections, form is where the answers lie. I can bore you to death about a horse not being likely to get the trip, or that the course isn’t suitable for this or that horse, but that is not the answer to VDW. I will certainly not spell anything out to anyone. I’ve had correspondence with people, some for a considerable amount of time, who have never got the answers from me; they’ve got it from themselves. Even when the penny drops there is no confirmation from me – there’s no need. Have they cracked it? Not all because they lack the temperament.
So, my replies regarding form will always be very limited on an open forum.
I am however willing to post bare bone selections prior to racing. Why? because I believe this is a greater help than a padded out form analysis that doesn’t even come close to touching on the specific element/s that separate one piece of form from another. It would be nice if others who professed to know would do the same so that we can compare?
[deleted]
Mtoto, Hensman, Anybody.
If you remove the ability rating column from “Spells it all outâ€
Hensman,
I have no problem with either of the two horses you last mention. VDW himself said they were not form horses, its more horse along the lines of Beacon Light and Petronisi and to be honest the ONLY reason I can see for labeling them as non form horses is to remove them from the equation. They have to be removed because they have higher ability rating than the selection, they both are also consistent and in the forecast. To make the a/rating work they have to be eliminated, I say the original rating, the other rating showed both of these horses inferior to the selection.
Beacon Light is out of form because he had dropped in class in each of his last three races. That’s fair enough, but the same can be said for the selection and other VDW selections. The argument then is the last race for PK was a better race than the class showed it wasn’t really a 6 it was worth more because of the class of the other horses. BL had run in a class 39 dropping from a 43, in BL’s race he had to give weight to a horse that if it had been a hcp he would have been receiving weight from. The horse Sea Pigeon (must remember this was before SP had won a champion hurdle) had beat BL at level weights the season before in the champion hurdle. For me BL had a monster task on his hands giving weight on the wrong type of course on the wrong going to a top class horse and his race isn’t up graded. hes out of form becaus ehe should have won, who says he should I think everything was against him. To say the horse was out of form defies all logic for me. However the figures say both he and Sea Pigeon didn’t have the form to win the Erin at that time, and that I can accept.
Be Lucky
I am however willing to post bare bone selections prior to racing. Why? because I believe this is a greater help than a padded out form analysis that doesn’t even come close to touching on the specific element/s that separate one piece of form from another. It would be nice if others who professed to know would do the same so that we can compare?
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L33,
Apologies I’ve no idea how your original post ended (nor whether it was deleted by you or somebody else).
I fully agree with what you say regarding bare bones selections, I’m one of those fortunate enough to have benefited greatly from these selections in the past. Not, I hasten to add because I bet on them, but because it was through these that the penny finally dropped regarding some critical elements of form.
I’m more than happy to join in, if others will do so, posting some bare-bones selections to compare but before doing so it must be made clear just where I stand.
I do not profess to know it all, certain elements are clear and some are still ‘misty’ shall we say. Therefore anything I post should NOT be regarded as a definitive VDW selection by anybody. The last thing I want is to be guilty of leading people down the wrong track and anything I post must be read in that light.The idea of achieving a high winning percentage when making horse-race selections will ensure that VDW and his methods will always be discussed..
Goodlife,
I think the claims of 80%+ strike-rate is what draws the majority of people to the VDW method, but what is failed to be realised by his literate work is that he advocated backing more than one selection in a race and, anybody making such ridiculous claims of achieving such success, purely by backing single selections is, without a doubt, leading people down the wrong path and, plainly, taking the piss.
The subject would have been buried years ago would it not be for the same kind of people on this thread who profess to know all without revealing all.
The method, as VDW said himself, is quite plain to see. It depends who you want to listen to and who you don’t.
GL
Garston
If by "what’s left" you mean the figures and annotations in the remaining columns, the answer is no.
Mtoto
You advance a reasoned case as to why in your view it was unrealistic to expect BL to have beaten Sea Pigeon under the circumstances applying. But as the prices returned make clear, that was a minority view.
This continues to be an absorbing thread.
This weekend I’ll post up a couple of races from Saturday’s card(s) and, as a practical, experential exercise for those, like me, who are still in the process of developing our understanding of this approach, I’ll invite all and sundry to ‘VDW’ the races in question. I might even have a go myself. Should be interesting.
(L33 and Mtoto – I’ve explained in a pm why I deleted minor parts of your posts)
L33,
I apologise, as you know many throw the toys out the pram when others don’t agree with them. I did think it was strange, but reacted before I knew what was going on. Then I couldn’t find the edit button so my mistake is there for all to see. I have only just found Cormack’s PM. So sorry.
Garston,
I have tried working the figures shown in SIAO and have to say I can only agree with Hensman. I can’t make them work at face value. I can make one race work and another shows the top rated 2nd best. I can’t make head or tail of Sunset Christo’s race and have lost my notes on the last race. Now if you ask the same question about the Erin (although they are not shown) I would have to say a resounding yes. The figure that makes PK the best horse in the race then works for around 80% of all VDW’s selections. With a few of the races that fail I can see reasons why the top rated would be passed over ie Burrough Hill Lad
Be Lucky
Mtoto to be fair VDW never said BL was out of form, but he did say he had a hard race.Last two furlongs comments read Hard Ridden. This was only 10 days before the Champion Hurdle. You have to ask yourself at this class level is 10 days long enough to recover from a hard race. Could BL be expected to be at his best after only 10 days to win the Champion Hurdle and I think he would need to be. Note also this his 6th race in 4 months which is alot for this class level.Happened this year with Honolulu fav for the St Leger did’nt perform and then came out to soon after a hard race. Lower class probably woud’nt be a problem.VDW says both methods show BL well out of it and if you look at his speed figures relative to class it shows a down turn in form . BL was not improving infact quite the opposite.I agree that he could perhaps be excused his last race based on going and course considerations, but the fact still remains BL had some hard races and the last one 10 days ago hard ridden on heavy going which must have taken alot out of him.
Any one know what the last 2 furlong comments are for PK because they are not in my form book?
Mtoto to be fair VDW never said BL was out of form
Maggsy,
I agree with the above and a lot of the other things you mention, hard race last time out, only 14 days between races, etc. If folk had said he failed for other reasons than form I wouldn’t have bothered to go into detail, I expect I would also have skipped over the fact PK was top rated. When I queried non form horse the answer was, but thats the way VDW looked at form.
There are no form comments for any of the races run in Ireland as far as I can see, in the form book or the Sporting Life. However I did read somewhere in his last race PK lead until just before the last. bad jump/mistake at the last, so all in all a good to fair run. I have no problem with this was a prep race for the Erin, or that PK was being aimed at that race. The only thing I do have problems with is BL not being a form horse.
Be Lucky
Mtoto
What was the distance of The race PK won and the race he ran in before when he led and made a mistake at the last?
Boozer,
PK’s last race was over 16f. His first win as over17f at Naas, he then won over 16f on the same course as his last run next time out These were the only races he had won up to that date. The race at Naas was worth £1.041, the next one was worth £2,497.
Be Lucky
Cormack the VDW method is quite simple. From the high value races evaluate the 3 most consistent horses from the first 5 (non handicaps) or 6 (handicaps) in the betting forecast. Include any highly consistent horses not in this area.
The whole thing is encapsulated in the formula; consistent form + ability (class) + capability + probability + hard work = winners.
VDW said the formula “forms the framework to logical methodical evaluation and as such could not have a set of specific rules applied to it!â€Good post garstonf
L33 mentions temperament and this can’t be stated highly enough.The advent of the exchanges now make it possible to bet virtually on two flies going up a wall.
I recall in my pre VDW days,that when the last race was run on a Saturday afternoon,(before Sunday racing)the bookies did not open again until Monday morning,and there was still plenty of time to do your brains,between Monday and Saturday.In the current climate one can basically bet 24/7 on almost anything.
I am sure it is making the acquisition of temperament even more difficult.
Pipedreamer this has never bothered me not having a bet.I don’t like losing money . I find it depressing. Never understood why people chase and why they keep betting when they are long term losers. I’ve never understood whats exciting about losing and why many feel they have to have a bet to take an interest in a race.I guess I’m the odd man out.If I thought I could’nt win at this game I would never bet again . I think it comes down to personality , but some do learn to be disciplined ansd with out that nobody can win.
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