has anyone done any work to try and bring into line the fact that lto form is more important than 2nd or third last time out ie change the ratings,thought of awarding lto winners 27pts and decreasing by 3pts ect ect winner 2nd last time out 18pts decreasing by 2pts third last time out 9pts decrease by 1pt or if it works dont fix it any thoughts anyone
I believe the most reliable form rating is the one for a horse’s last race, although it has to be tempered by the fact that the race might be over a different distance(and course, probably) than the one under consideration today.
If I was going to the races today for a fun day out and didn’t want to stretch my brain at all, I would just back the horse in each race with the best LTO Racing Post adjusted rating. I’ve watched the performance of this statistic over a long period and while it isn’t profitable in the long term, it can have some very good days, particularly in lower grade races.
if i rate last three form figures as i stated in my first post i am no longer picking out the most consistant horses but horses that are running better lto ect ect will it make a big difference (to vdw) will it throw the method of ,will try for a few weeks to see