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Yep, says it all, imo.
With disciples like Nick Mordin and Mark Coton, small wonder plenty choose not to worship at the ‘value’ altar.
Any logical explanation of your opinion Reet?
In logical terms, why don’t you think "value matters"?
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
Don’t think I’ve ever said value doesn’t matter – I’m sure it has its place, but it’s not the holy grail of punting many hold it to be, imho.
Like many others, NM & MC have spouted the value mantra incessantly, yet haven’t got enough nous to turn a regular profit, so how can they ever hope to price even one horse’s chance up accurately, let alone a 20 runner handicap?Ginger, Rob
– whilst I am in fundamental agreement with the concept of "value" over mere "winners", there’s one thing which perplexes me.
You gave an example of
Rooster Booster
being offered ante-post at 12’s when he should be 4’s. But surely "value" here relies entirely on knowing who else is running and who isn’t? If
Istabraq, Night Nurse
and
Persian War
are running against him, then 12’s represents something rather different from the case where it’s
Maidstone Monument, Castlemorris King
and
Quixall Crossett
(God bless him!).
Does not the uncertainty of who’s in and who’s not make "value" betting ante-post a far more slippery proposition? And how might you factor in calculations as to likely opposition (or indeed, ground conditions) months before an event?
Pinza
I don’t bet ante-post. If I don’t know what’s going to run I’m not happy setting prices.
I calculate my own prices on the day of the race.
Rob
Rob,
Do you find beating SP enough?
These days SP over-rounds seem to be so big that it is difficult not to beat SP’s when taking early prices.Yes, I do, but that’s mainly because these days most horses I back are at double figure prices, though I do bet multiple horses in a race. The exchange markets tend to fluctuate about horses at longer prices and I generally benefit from an upward tick in the market.
It must be said that the exchanges aren’t quite the cushy number they were in the early years, many of the laying mugs have done their money, but there’s still an advantage be to had from the variations in the market.
Rob
- Total Posts 17716
I see no-one has been able to answer my roulette query earlier in the thread
You go into a casino and play roulette (numbers 0-36). Usually you get odds of 35/1 about each number but this casino is having a special where they are offering 37/1 about ZERO.
How many times will a value punter have to play ZERO before he shows a profit?
37?
370?
3700?
37000?db
The guy would probably fall to sleep before he’d made a worthwhile profit – much like reading Ginger’s table of odds and chances for the 3,700th time?
I see no-one has been able to answer my roulette query earlier in the thread
You go into a casino and play roulette (numbers 0-36). Usually you get odds of 35/1 about each number but this casino is having a special where they are offering 37/1 about ZERO.
How many times will a value punter have to play ZERO before he shows a profit?
37?
370?
3700?
37000?db
The guy would probably fall to sleep before he’d made a worthwhile profit – much like reading Ginger’s table of odds and chances for the 3,700th time?It’s just my lazy streak. I had hoped someone else would have done this by now, But, here goes.
The exact answer to your question is: nobody can know for sure in advance. Because the result of every spin is based on random chance you might have to wait for hundreds of spins for the Zero to turn up enough times, or it could turn up on the very first spin and you are in profit straight away.
The realistic answer to your question is, on average, 19. If the wheel is fair, the number Zero will appear once every 37 spins. It is just as likely to appear on the first of those 37 spins, as it is on the second, third, fourth, etc. On average over many lots of 37 spins, Zero will appear, on average, on the eighteenth and a half spin. Half a spin is silly, so it will have to be the nineteenth spin. If you hit Zero any time within the first 37 spins you will be in profit.
The numbers 0 to 36 are a group of 37 numbers. Statistically the number Zero will come up exactly once every 37 spins as will all the other numbers. In 37 spins, backing Zero every time you will lose 36 times (say £36 loss). You will win one time, and you will receive back your £1 stake and your winnings of £37 (because the odds were 37/1) which is £38. Every round of 37 spins you will profit by £38-£36 = £2.
That was statistically. In reality, just like the toss of a coin does NOT go heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, etc like some perfect piece of machinery, the roulette wheel will not throw up exactly one Zero for every 37 spins of the wheel. You might get none, or one, or two, etc. But if it is a fair wheel, for every 37,000 spins, you will get pretty close to 1,000 Zeros, give or take a few, so you will win about £2,000.
Ginge, or any value seeker for that matter,
At what price do you think Frankel becomes value for tomorrow’s St James’s Palace Stakes?
Or put slightly different, you have £100 to bet on the race and you really fancy Frankel to win. You’re a value seeker remember, a very disciplined one, so you will only back the horse at x odds or better. What odds will Frankel have to be in order for you to push your £100 over the counter?
My 100% book on the St James’s Palace for Good-soft, good in places is:
Frankel 70% 4/9 (4/11), Dream Ahead 9% 10/1 (8/1), Excelebration 6.75% 14/1 (11/1), Wooton Bassett 4.75% 20/1 (15/1), Dubawi Gold 4.75% 20/1 (16/1), Zoffany 2.5% 40/1 (25/1), Grand Prix Boss 2% 50/1 (28/1), Neebras 0.2% 500/1 (125/1), Rerouted 0.05% 2000/1 (500/1).
Horse, my idea of its percentage chance, chance converted to odds.
(figures in brackets are my 100% price + a bookies mark up to around 113%, so you can compare to bookies prices if you want to).With a margin for error, I’d want 1/2 (66.7%) to back Frankel (in his case 3.3% better than my 70% estimate). Although I never have main bets on odds-on shots. Prefer to back another value horse and save on the odds-on shot. I rarely back a drifter either, so if he’s top price 4/11 in the morning and drifts to 1/2 on course I won’t be going in. More than likely he’s sweating or something negative, which alters the value price.
I’m on Dream Ahead each way @ 14/1
Value Is EverythingYou will win one time, and you will receive back your £1 stake and your winnings of £37 (because the odds were 37/1) which is £38. Every round of 37 spins you will profit by £38-£36 = £2.
You’d only be £1 up. Total staked £37 (you’ve bet 37 times), total returned £38 (1 win at 37/1 inc. your £1 stake back).
You will win one time, and you will receive back your £1 stake and your winnings of £37 (because the odds were 37/1) which is £38. Every round of 37 spins you will profit by £38-£36 = £2.
You’d only be £1 up. Total staked £37 (you’ve bet 37 times), total returned £38 (1 win at 37/1 inc. your £1 stake back).
It seems I not only have a lazy streak, but also a "Pay attention at the back there. Yes, I mean you" type of streak. I remember those days, but a bit less clearly than I used to.
Thank you for the correction. I am much obliged to you.
you have £100 to bet on the race and you really fancy Frankel to win. You’re a value seeker remember, a very disciplined one, so you will only back the horse at x odds or better. What odds will Frankel have to be in order for you to push your £100 over the counter?
21/20
A rule of thumb that’s served me well enough is not to bet in races in which my tissue produces an odds-on fav.
So, on the assumption that I’d make Frankel odds-on today (haven’t priced the race) then it would be a case of sit back, enjoy the spectacle and wait for a bet elsewhere
This is not ‘A Rule’ it is ‘My Rule’. Many would be happy to bet Frankel at odds-on if they deem it value, or possibly, given he’s likely to be around 1/3, others EW as the place-odds may be value in a 9-runner field.
Though the layers will send you to Coventry pronto once you’ve gained a reputation for EW betting in 8/9 runner fields with a short, short fav
And in my experience betting others at theoretical value against odds-on favs has not been rewarding anyway. Though that is no doubt just a manifestation of my limitations as a tissue compiler
If you were tossing a coin, and were quoted 2/1 that it would be a head, that would be value. If you had a 2 horse race, on paper both horses had identical chances and were priced up in the morning at 10/11. The horse ridden by Graham Bradley drifts out to 2/1. Is that now a good bet?
Gingertipster, you’re a punter who looks for value in betting. Rather than start a new thread to ask you this, I thought I add to this thread.
After making a tissue and deciding the true odds of each horse in a race. Is a horse still value if it loses?
Gingertipster, you’re a punter who looks for value in betting. Rather than start a new thread to ask you this, I thought I add to this thread.
After making a tissue and deciding the true odds of each horse in a race. Is a horse still value if it loses?
Yes and No RR.
As the winner is not known before the race, it does not really apply. In one respect any loser is no value, because you haven’t got anything back for that one bet. But I’d rather think of it as:If I am getting 4/1 about all fair 25% chances, I can expect to lose 75 out of every 100 bets (losing 75 points). Winning 25 out of every 100 (25 x 5) Returning 125 points to a level stakes 100 points. Profit of 25 points.
So to be able to make that 25 points profit it is neccessary to back 75 horses who were "value" at the time of selection, but did not win.
Value Is EverythingIf it’s not too personal but what’s your strike rate and what’s your average sp?
All I ask for is because I think the results shouldn’t matter on an individual race if it wins/loses. However if a load loses then your selection method needs examining. However all punters will go through stages where they just keep picking the wrong horse, no matter how you pick them.
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