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If the ground comes up soft i will take a big swing at Grumpy Charley. However, that’s looking unlikely so i’ve yet to decide between Fantastikas, Corach Rambler and Tea Clipper. All three have course form, TC having festival form. At the prices i think he’ll be my main play. Possible saver on one of the other two. I’ll wait until the day.
Kiltealy Briggs for me now that the owners have taken the wolf out.
Has some very nice form in behind the likes of ahoy senor this season. Lovely weight and meets a lot of the trends needed for this.
Just the shortlist of Frodon, Fantastikas, Ben Dundee, Oscar Elite, Gericault Roque, Does He Know and Tea Clipper for me. Nice and easy then
True enough though I much rather this to small fields.
I put a lot of time into this race and I can deduce that it’s not easy! Frodon could get away from them and I’ve had a small saver there.
I really like Tea Clipper though and I just managed to get on at the last of the 16/1 e/w in a shop dash earlier. Had a good season over hurdles including 3rd in the Coral Cup but chasing was always going to be his thing. He’s a very, very good jumper as he showed at Chepstow in October. He was extremely impressive there and there’s no doubt his next plan was a spring handicap. His Newbury and Kempton runs were all in the sake of meeting the mandatory three chase runs to qualify. Quite a shrewd bit of business too – it’s not often you see a handicapper drop 4lbs and pick up £20k while doing it.
He’ll want the ground as dry as it can get but I expect he’ll run a big race. He could be very, very good.For some reason last year’s winner Vintage Clouds is available at 28/1 (6 places) so I’ve had a go there too. His whole season was based around this race. More runners than last year but the races suits him – he’ll be prominent and stays really well. Sean Quinlan mentioned on the Final Furlong podcast that he felt like he lost his ‘boot’ a bit at Doncaster last time and that he had to niggle him along. He also said he needed the run. He’s 12 so he will fade someday but at 28/1 and 6 places I’m more than happy to take a chance.
Of the others I really wanted to like Kiltealy Briggs. It’s the owners race and they’ve planned this all year. I just don’t think he’ll stay.
I’m really surprised to see Floueur as favourite. Great form on paper but his jumping just can’t be trusted. They reverted to hurdles last season as he was so bad. Made a bad mistake in his opening run this season, his jumping let him down badly in his second race and he made an awful mess of the last fence in his last three races. They’ll go a good pace here and I just can’t see him getting away with it. He won’t be favourite at the off.
I’ve mentioned Frodon and he could prove very difficult to pass. We all talk about handicap marks but running styles often play a major part, especially on decent ground around here.
Our Power was also tempting. In the end it came down to prices.There’s loads who could win it – it’s a tricky one. Best of luck with yours.
Vintage Clouds for the repeat and Rapper both EW for me. I like Daly’s stable form and he is a master at running the right horses in the right races come Cheltenham.
I’ve backed Oscar Elite, perhaps I’m clinging on too much to his Albert Bartlett and Aintree runs last year and he’s not really hit the ground running over fences but there was one glimmer of hope in that he was travelling very well when falling behind Threeunderthrufive over course and distance with Does He Know eventually finishing 2nd in the same race. He was getting 8lbs off both but they are both rated 152 now and even a couple of pounds out of the weights he should be well treated off 138 if he ever does get his act together. I like Harry Cobden being jocked up. He’s a risky proposition but at a big enough price to tempt me in.
I can see the case for Floueur 100%, he’s just got to be much better over fences than the 143 he ran in the Martin Pipe off last year. The fact he’s only 3lbs higher and has Jordan Gainford taking off 3, I can’t argue with him as favourite and he’d be the main one. He does have a blunder in him but he’s a novice so its to be expected, that could be his undoing.
Tea Clipper, Fantastikas, Gericault Roque and Corach Rambler came close on the shortlist but not enough at the prices, I’d was hoping for much bigger for Tea Clipper and Corach has too many quirks, GR is even worse out of the weights than Oscar Elite but half the price. Fantastikas is solid enough I suppose and would be the 3rd selection if he got much bigger.
Oscar elite issue is jumping , if he can get a clear round he won’t be far away but that’s it …if , I cant see him not hitting a couple , yard had a decent Cheltenham last year considering they went in in a slump
Could’ve bet 6 or 7 quite easily
In the end i’ve plumped for 4.
Vintage Clouds, seems to have been given a great chance by the handicapper; Full Back and couldnt leave an old fav of mine, Frodon. A late bet this eve on Doctor Duffy, each way.
Best of luck to all
Edit: Oops, forgot about Our Power, a bet placed 2 weeks ago.Added to my early Frodon Bet, EW seven places. Don’t see why he can’t take a hand here.
Vintage Clouds a straightforward backup, and Gericault Roque is the saver.
Ben Dundee the one that got away
Frodon 16’s EW 7pls
Gericault Roque 16’s
Vintage CloudsAlways look forward to this one. You need to resign yourself to the fact that the winner will likely be the one you decided not to back from your original shortlist. So many you could get stuck into, but discipline must win the day with so much more happening on the day and throughout the week.
In the end I’ve gone for Fantastikas, Floueur and Lostintranslation. The first two aren’t overly original, however there aren’t many cases being made for my old friend Lostintranslation. He is becoming a cliff horse of mine, perhaps due to that Gold Cup run two years ago and I can’t let him go at the prices. Has a fabulous course record to boot.
Noble Yeats, Tea Clipper and Corach Rambler were the others of interest, however I don’t want more than three.
I’m going for Doctor Duffy- 40s with b365 is a nice ew price. He hasn’t always been the best jumper but 9n his last run fenced quite nicely and efficiently and was working his way into it when he was unlucky to stumble slightly and unship his jockey 2 out. Granted that was not a frenetic pace as it was a GN trial on heavy…but he copes with better ground too. He has some decent back form and should stay on up the hill.
Peter I’m in the cliff club with u, when lost won the betfair I thought he was the 2nd coming , after the GC things haven’t gone well bar first time out this year , he has bled to , however at the prices I’ve got to have a play , he,s no oap yet and he,s been to places most of these can only dream of , the handicapper has helped to 5lbs below his win mark first time out , if he can win I’ll shout the house down , floueur was behind death duty last time but despite what Elliott says about him being the best hcap horse I reckon with gainford on he can reverse the form so I’ll play him , at bigger discordantly is back again , a year older and 5lb lower , headgear on again and 25s is a nice price
Lost in translation e.w
Floueur win
Discordantly e.w
Frodon for me ew @ 14s is a storming bet
Grumpey Charlie at the bigger prices (was 33s yesterday)
Vintage Clouds again at 28s ew looks a good bet with the 7 placesAs you folks have said, cud easily back 8 or 9 and likely the ones left out will have the winner in
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