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“Ginny’s Destiny has been winning handicaps”
I was scanning Iroko’s form for the Graded wins.
Still looking.
He has only run once, so he is not likely to have run in a Graded race. But he did laugh at a horse that was placed in a Grade 2 yesterday, so I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume he is Graded class.
What price would you lay, Glad? If you think 7/1 is too short?
I wouldn’t back him at anything shorter than 10s.
He may win the race, but he represents no value at current odds.
In a normal renewal I’d want 20s but in this renewal I’d consider 12s or 14s
And then kick myself for being so stupid backing a horse who was injured and only ran once
And beat a horse who has since proved to be useless on that one start
Iroko isn’t a definite runner anyway…
“Personally, I’d like to go to the Turners [Novices’ Chase],” Greenall said. “In an ideal world, we’d go to Kempton two weeks before Cheltenham for the Pendil Novices’ Chase and then go to Aintree. Fitness-wise, he’ll be fine. He’s progressing really well, it’s just whether we feel he is too inexperienced having only had one run over fences. I think we will have decided his race by the five-day confirmations. We’ll take him away to do a schooling gallop and we’ll know more then.”
This is another potentially mystifying decision by Mullins.
Just read a preview of JP’s horses on the Racing Post site. It states that Fact To File is 13/8 for the Brown Advisory and 5/1 for the Turners. That piece of writing is even more mystifying. If Fact To File ran in the Turners he would be very close to odds on rather than 5/1. Why try and mislead people?
The Turners looks very, very weak, and if Fact To File doesn’t go there, a handicapper is going to go off favourite. Without a bad mistake Grey Dawning would have beaten Ginny’s Destiny at the December meeting. Fact To File would have to beat that one (over an unknown trip) in the Brown Advisory. So why take on stronger opposition over an unknown trip?
Iroko isn’t a like for like swap. Far from it. He isn’t a 5/4 favourite on account of having one run over fences (more style than substance?) and a massively interrupted preparation, so much so he wasn’t expected to run, in fact that was actually confirmed.
Fair point stilvi. Perfectly possible Stay Away Fay (159) would be a tougher nut to crack than Ginnys Destiny (155), plus FTF has shown form over 2 and a half and hasn’t gone 3 miles yet.
If fact to file runs in the BANC which very much sounds like the plan
I’d imagine Skelton will look at the fields
Take on FTF and SAF or take on ginnys destiny, a horse grey dawning would’ve beaten cosily giving weight if not foe walking through a fence
And run here instead
I would be much more concerned about Grey Dawning than Stay Away Fay. I think Stay Away Fay is too slow, and a pretty ordinary jumper which won’t help his cause in trying to maintain a position. We saw what happened with Gerri Colombe getting too far back last year. It only takes a couple of slow jumps. I would have run Stay Away Fay in the National Hunt Chase, but even if the trainer agreed, I doubt he would have been up to telling Cobden. I think Embassy Gardens is the opposite, he should be in the Brown Advisory, not the National Hunt Chase. I think he is better than a plodder.
Grey dawning is a very sticky jumper at times
Think he may struggle in a more competitive race
And is better on a flat track on very soft ground
I wouldn’t fancy him to beat SAF myself
Who ran a very nice race last time despite Nicholls leaving plenty to work on
Embassy gardens isn’t a horse I like, has flopped too many times for me to believe he’s turned into a proper graded performer until I see it
I think that Cotswold Chase was a poor renewal. They were up and down like yo-yo’s. Stay Away Fay didn’t travel like a good horse, and just plodded on to pick up the pieces late in the day.
I can see your point about Embassy Gardens, but he is a good looking horse who has perhaps just needed time.
“They were up and down like yo-yo’s. Stay Away Fay didn’t travel like a good horse, and just plodded on to pick up the pieces late in the day.”
If that was ‘a meaningful race’ Stay Away wouldn’t have been held up like that in a slowly run race imo. It was just a prep race for the Festival so not everything was on the line. He didn’t win his prep before the Albert Bartlett either as I recall. And I would differ with you about his jumping, when out in front/up with the pace it has been an asset so far.
I wouldn’t disagree with FF91 about Grey Dawning’s jumping. There is a mistake in him when the taps are turned on. And the Dan Skelton grade 1 chasers have tended to peak during the season then come up short at the Festival, its one or two of his hurdlers that usually bring home the bacon. Will this one break that trend?
It looks an effort for grey dawning to get from A to B
In a better race going half a stride quicker I’d worry he’d be losing ground at most fences
More mistakes will be forced out of him
I think it’s odds on he runs here in the weaker race if fact to file goes to the BANC
Johnny dineen was talking last night as though he’s been told the BANC is the plan for FTF
And unless he gets plenty of rain it’s hard to see him being quick enough
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