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Of course it’s your fault. I am running a successful method. You naively refuse to see racing as being bent to the advantage of connections. That is your downfall. It is irresponsible to waste money day after day. I did something about it and now I’m winning while you, the naïve upholder of racing’s integrity sink deeper into a hole.
It’s an enduring image, Woolfie. Me scrambling desperately down the plughole-like vortex of gambling failure, yourself powering ahead financially, riding the wave of your (latest) successful method.
"Some men are born to good luck: all they do or try to do comes right—all that falls to them is so much gain—all their geese are swans—all their cards are trumps—toss them which way you will, they will always, like poor puss, alight upon their legs, and only move on so much the faster."
The Brothers Grimm clearly had you in mind when they spoke thus!
Then again, they were always good at fairytales.
Mike
Surely all of us make value-based judgements when we bet don’t we? I would definitely have a ‘betting price’ in mind on anything I back although I don’t go into such intricate percentage-based judgements as Ginge does (mainly because I don’t believe I can so accurately judge ‘value’ to make it worthwhile). For example, I may have a ‘feeling’ that I’d back Horse A at 5-1+ but probably give him a miss at 7-2. The in-between is open for mental negotiation as I watch the market unfold before the off.
I don’t see this as any different to buying a house, a car or a loaf of bread. Every time we make a purchase, we make a deal with ourselves that we are happy with the cost/benefit ratio.
Everyone looks for value. Everybody’s bet is a ‘value’ bet in their opinion.
Mike
Never noticed "Scarbrough" before, although I believe the town "Scarbrough" was named after did become "Scarborough"?
Yes the town is Scarborough and the Scarbrough title was taken from it when the earldom was created in the 17th century. Whether the town got its second o later, I don’t know but spelling was not particularly important back then anyway
No 2yo in the race today though it’s one of only three races in the UK for 2yo-and-up: the others being the Nunthorpe and something later on at Pontefract or Redcar, forget which. The Prix de l’Abbaye being the only other I can think of
Surely all of us make value-based judgements when we bet don’t we? I would definitely have a ‘betting price’ in mind on anything I back although I don’t go into such intricate percentage-based judgements as Ginge does (mainly because I don’t believe I can so accurately judge ‘value’ to make it worthwhile). For example, I may have a ‘feeling’ that I’d back Horse A at 5-1+ but probably give him a miss at 7-2. The in-between is open for mental negotiation as I watch the market unfold before the off.
I don’t see this as any different to buying a house, a car or a loaf of bread. Every time we make a purchase, we make a deal with ourselves that we are happy with the cost/benefit ratio.
Everyone looks for value. Everybody’s bet is a ‘value’ bet in their opinion.
Mike
Exactly Mike,
TAPK likes to portray me as making a 100% book on every race. Not true. Sometimes I make a 100% book, sometimes I don’t. Though as someone else said, years of doing books has helped in being able to evaluate form accurately without (now) need for a book.Like you Mike, without doing a book there is still a price I will not go below. If I think something is around a
fair 9/2
shot, I will add one price as a margin for error so will
not
back it at
5/1
but
will
@
11/2+
. Just found it
a lot easier
to know what is a fair 9/2 shot by knowing it should have an 18% chance etc.
Like I suspect many TRFers, can also judge a horse’s price by the horses in the market around them. If I believe horses B, E and H all have the same chance of winning and B is 5/1, E is 5/1 and
H is 13/2
, and I believe H also has a much better chance than the difference between him and D 7/1 and K 15/2 suggests… With those two aspects in his favour H is the value bet. With races like this there is little point of working out a 100% book.
Value Is EverythingI remember even back then that the correlation between price and expected return was absolutely exact, so this is not something of the Betfair age. I still find it remarkable how amazingly accurate the market is, how every price wins precisiely in it’s turn.
As the form I would have been using was probably from something like 1989-1993, it would be fair to say that was before the real age of data, so one could reasonably assume that this accuracy had been going on for decades if not centuries!
The UK’s horseracing betting market really is a thing of mathematical beauty.
It is indeed beautiful and more than a little mysterious as it is so counter-intuitive: how and why do the myriad opinions of a population constituting a ‘market’ who’re considering the chances of individuals in a horse race with its myriad variables and unknowns converge to an abstract mathematical probability.
‘Efficient Market Hypotheses’ in general have exercised and continue to exercise minds both mathematical and philosophical; which is no surprise
Anyway, I’ve had a crunch of my earliest databases from 1995-97 and can confirm that the expected strike-rates occurred then too, with the nascent development of longshot bias at 12/1 to boot!
Using the same odds as in the previous example
Flat 1/1/95 – 31/12/97 all races
1/1 47.3%
2/1 29.3%
3/1 22.7%
5/1 14.8%
8/1 8.9%
12/1 4.7%NH 1/1/95 – 31/12/97 all races
1/1 46.2%
2/1 30.2%
3/1 21.8%
5/1 15.2%
8/1 9.1%
12/1 5.1%Mike has it spot on in my opinion. If we all perceive a certain price to be value (be it betting odds, the price of a car or tin of beans) it won’t remain "value" for very long. Demand will outstrip supply very quickly. We either pay the higher price or try the next best alternative or keep our money in our pockets for another day.
There are some clever minds on this forum. Rather than battle them I use their knowledge and skill to review and tweak my own betting strategy. I don’t agree with Gord’s betting each way ante-post. I’m happy to bet more than one horse in a race but not to the extent of GT……but each to their own. Learn to Respect, Respect to Learn.
Even Woolfie I can agree with to some extent and appreciate his argument. For example take a field of unraced maidens. The betting market is based on information and in this case a yard insider "should" know more than I.
Interestingly though I can recall betting just 2/3 horses because someone else on the forum has tipped it up. From memory they’ve been ante post advices as the argument put up was a pretty convincing one…none of them won though!!
Interestingly though I can recall betting just 2/3 horses because someone else on the forum has tipped it up. From memory they’ve been ante post advices as the argument put up was a pretty convincing one…none of them won though!!
100% you include
My Tent or yours
in the above post ‘Oasis’!
Interestingly though I can recall betting just 2/3 horses because someone else on the forum has tipped it up. From memory they’ve been ante post advices as the argument put up was a pretty convincing one…none of them won though!!
100% you include
My Tent or yours
in the above post ‘Oasis’!
Sorry mate but no!! I backed Champagne Fever on the day at 9/1 though!
I don’t see this as any different to buying a house, a car or a loaf of bread. Every time we make a purchase, we make a deal with ourselves that we are happy with the cost/benefit ratio.
Everyone looks for value. Everybody’s bet is a ‘value’ bet in their opinion.
Mike
Everybodys bet isn’t a ‘Value’ bet.There are times we purchase something because we want to treat ourselves and ‘Value’ isn’t even considered.I could buy a cheap Black and decker drill for £40,I could buy a Makita drill for £150 or I could buy the best De-Walt drill for £200,every drill does what it says on the tin but the De-walt does it so much easier.The ‘Value’ drill is the Makita then! A tin of Lidl Beans are cheap and nasty,Sainsburys home brand are more expensive but taste better but Heinz are different class again and obviously you pay more for such luxury,the ‘value’ beans are the Sainsburys ones but I’ll stick to Heinz thanks,the same can be said for Horseracing,the Favs an even money chance the 2nd favs 4/1 and the 3rd favs 6/1,there’s no value in the even Money shot but he’s fav for a reason and thats because he’s the Class horse in the race.You ‘Value’ seekers wont touch the good thing because its just like going to the Ritz for afternoon tea and paying £50 per head,you cant justify the expense so you settle for 2nd best and search for a Value lunch in M+S.’Value’ on the High St is about being thrifty,you go out with £100 to spend and you want to get your monies worth and you come back with at least something,’Value’ seekers in horseracing go out with £100 and instead of sticking it on an Even money shot and coming back with something you stick it on a horse at bigger odds because you think its bigger value and come back with nothing because the Even money shot wins!
Where’s the ‘Value’ in a big priced Loser??? Interestingly though I can recall betting just 2/3 horses because someone else on the forum has tipped it up. From memory they’ve been ante post advices as the argument put up was a pretty convincing one…none of them won though!!
100% you include
My Tent or yours
in the above post ‘Oasis’!
Sorry mate but no!! I backed Champagne Fever on the day at 9/1 though!
Cristoforo Colombo and Magnanimity being a couple I did back. The first defo as you were keen on him a long way out.
"Oasisdreamer":1kjuann3 wrote:
Sorry mate but no!! I backed Champagne Fever on the day at 9/1 though!
Cristoforo Colombo and Magnanimity being a couple I did back. The first defo as you were keen on him a long way out.
Interesting ‘Oasis’ as ‘Cristoforo’ was always my 2nd best 2yo colt.I guess you just didn’t like the Big chestnut I mentioned more times than Ginge uses the word Percentages!
"The Ante-Post King":30tbgmsb wrote:
Sorry mate but no!! I backed Champagne Fever on the day at 9/1 though!
Cristoforo Colombo and Magnanimity being a couple I did back. The first defo as you were keen on him a long way out.
Interesting ‘Oasis’ as ‘Cristoforo’ was always my 2nd best 2yo colt.I guess you just didn’t like the Big chestnut I mentioned more times than Ginge uses the word Percentages!
I liked the Big Chestnut but missed the price boat and Mr Bolger worries me ante-post. Lesson learnt there!
I don’t see this as any different to buying a house, a car or a loaf of bread. Every time we make a purchase, we make a deal with ourselves that we are happy with the cost/benefit ratio.
Everyone looks for value. Everybody’s bet is a ‘value’ bet in their opinion.
Mike
Everybodys bet isn’t a ‘Value’ bet.There are times we purchase something because we want to treat ourselves and ‘Value’ isn’t even considered.I could buy a cheap Black and decker drill for £40,I could buy a Makita drill for £150 or I could buy the best De-Walt drill for £200,every drill does what it says on the tin but the De-walt does it so much easier.The ‘Value’ drill is the Makita then! A tin of Lidl Beans are cheap and nasty,Sainsburys home brand are more expensive but taste better but Heinz are different class again and obviously you pay more for such luxury,the ‘value’ beans are the Sainsburys ones but I’ll stick to Heinz thanks,the same can be said for Horseracing,the Favs an even money chance the 2nd favs 4/1 and the 3rd favs 6/1,there’s no value in the even Money shot but he’s fav for a reason and thats because he’s the Class horse in the race.You ‘Value’ seekers wont touch the good thing because its just like going to the Ritz for afternoon tea and paying £50 per head,you cant justify the expense so you settle for 2nd best and search for a Value lunch in M+S.’Value’ on the High St is about being thrifty,you go out with £100 to spend and you want to get your monies worth and you come back with at least something,’Value’ seekers in horseracing go out with £100 and instead of sticking it on an Even money shot and coming back with something you stick it on a horse at bigger odds because you think its bigger value and come back with nothing because the Even money shot wins!
Where’s the ‘Value’ in a big priced Loser??? No, you’re confusing value with cost. Value is solely something that is perceived by the purchaser whether it’s a Lada or a Lamborghini.
I’ve just bought a Samsung Galaxy S4 mobile which cost me £350. Do I think that’s value? Yes, because it runs the apps I need, has a fantastic camera and is superb on the internet. By your reckoning, I should have purchased a cheapo Nokia for a tenner as it was ‘value’. However, as it would be completely useless for my needs, I perceive no value in it at £10 (or even at 50p to be honest!).
Value is
always, always
perceived by the individual. Many people would regard my new phone as a waste of money because it has no particular function for them. For me, I regard it as value.
Cost has absolutely nothing to do with how anyone perceives value.
Likewise with your example of tea at the Ritz versus M&S sandwiches. On the odd occasion, I would perceive plenty of ‘value’ of doing the former – the value is all in the treat, the experience, the desire to impress (!) etc etc. But most times, I would perceive more value in M&S. Again, you confuse the actual cost of something with the perceived value.
If you don’t consider you make a value judgement with your bets, just ask yourself if you’d take 6-4 about your 40-1 ante-post tilts.
Mike
Everybodys bet isn’t a ‘Value’ bet.There are times we purchase something because we want to treat ourselves and ‘Value’ isn’t even considered.I could buy a cheap Black and decker drill for £40,I could buy a Makita drill for £150 or I could buy the best De-Walt drill for £200,every drill does what it says on the tin but the De-walt does it so much easier.The ‘Value’ drill is the Makita then! A tin of Lidl Beans are cheap and nasty,Sainsburys home brand are more expensive but taste better but Heinz are different class again and obviously you pay more for such luxury,the ‘value’ beans are the Sainsburys ones but I’ll stick to Heinz thanks,the same can be said for Horseracing,the Favs an even money chance the 2nd favs 4/1 and the 3rd favs 6/1,there’s no value in the even Money shot but he’s fav for a reason and thats because he’s the Class horse in the race.You ‘Value’ seekers wont touch the good thing because its just like going to the Ritz for afternoon tea and paying £50 per head,you cant justify the expense so you settle for 2nd best and search for a Value lunch in M+S.’Value’ on the High St is about being thrifty,you go out with £100 to spend and you want to get your monies worth and you come back with at least something,’Value’ seekers in horseracing go out with £100 and instead of sticking it on an Even money shot and coming back with something you stick it on a horse at bigger odds because you think its bigger value and come back with nothing because the Even money shot wins!
Where’s the ‘Value’ in a big priced Loser??? I see Mike has written a very similar post but…
You have a strange idea of "value" Gord, it explains a lot of your misconceptions.
If someone does not like Lidl beans then they are not "value". It’s pointless buying something you don’t want to eat, it’s just throwing money away. If someone really likes Heinz Beanz then although the cost of a tin might be a little more – the taste makes it better "value".
Shoppers should not be fooled in to thinking of "value" as the cheapest product. It’s more the Best Buy in a Which Magazine.
Punters need to invest more on an Even Money shot to get back the same amount as a 10/1 shot. But the risk is nowhere near the same. Sometimes the amount of risk and potential return makes the Evens a better buy than a 10/1 shot, and sometimes the 10/1 is a better buy than Evens.
Before handing over the cash a punter does
not
know
if the Evens, 2/1, 7/1 or 10/1 shot will be the best investment (win). So the
"what’s the value in a big priced loser"
? question does not come in to it. He just needs to evaluate/ask which "
risk
" is worth the
potential return
? And knowing the top price 10/1 shot needs to have a better than 9% chance of winning for me to believe it "value" helps me answer the latter question.
Value Is EverythingA few more shock winners Wednesday.
6.05 Carl SIRVINO 20/1
5.15 Donc SIR PEDRO 7/1
8.15 Kemp SILVER LACE 9/1
8.45 Kemp HIERARCH 14/1Please tell us Woolfie, why you believe each of them is a "shock" winner?
Value Is Everything
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