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Triumph Hurdle 2021

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  • #1502937
    Bachelors HallBachelors Hall
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    It would appear that I owe William Hills, 10bet and and Sport Nation an apology. Following yesterday’s Prix Robert Lejeune, attherraces’ French expert Laurent Barbarin informed viewers that the connections of Baladin de Mesc do apparently have designs on a campaign which includes a visit to Cheltenham next spring. May this serve as a reminder that while I may be fairy adept at researching this topic, my sources are essentially restricted to what is available in the public domain and my ear is no closer to the ground than any other five foot nine-ish gentleman. Though it would be disingenuous for me to retract the implication that bookmakers are deceitful parasites, it was incorrect of me to use Baladin de Mesc’s inclusion on some Triumph lists as a justification and for that, I apologise.

    For those who missed yesterday’s race, the replay can be found here. At odds of 10.2/1, Hermes Baie was not particularly well fancied but he was runner up on his debut behind Jeu de Paume and got off the mark on his next start in June on his first run at Auteuil. The front two pulled clear of the remainder and if Baladin de Mesc is to run in the UK, he brings with him form of a most respectable standard in the context of those who have already been imported.

    Now from a French trained horse listed at 33/1 for the Triumph, we move on to a Scottish trained one currently available at 66/1. Red Missile has his run for Lucinda Russell tomorrow afternoon and a preview of the race can be found in the Juvenile Hurdlers thread on the Horse Racing section of the forum.

    #1502942
    buckers
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    This is great work Bachelors

    #1504460
    Bachelors HallBachelors Hall
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    Cheers Buckers :)

    Quilixios and Duffle Coat are set to clash at Gowran Park on Saturday. The preview to which can be found in the Juvenile Hurdlers thread on the main board.

    The Triumph Hurdle markets have changed shape somewhat since I last commented on them early in September. Paros shortening into 22/1 is the only real move but there have been several new additions to the list which I will assess below.

    Since 2011, fourteen juveniles have appeared in the “Top 40 Prospects” of Mark Howard’s ‘One Jump Ahead’, not including the two for this season. Both of those have recently been added to the Triumph Hurdle betting but while they are obviously included within this update, I will not mention which ones specifically so as to protect the integrity of the publication and the investment others have made in the product. And while it may be fairly obvious who those two horses are, I will only use my own observations in the write-ups and leave those of Mark Howard to the imagination. Of the ones that have appeared in previous editions, thirteen made the racetrack, nine won during their first season and all bar Great Tempo – winner of a Hexham contest as 1/25 favourite – achieved RPRs of 120 and above. Five of them made it to the Triumph Hurdle with Hargam faring best when third in the 2015 renewal.

    33/1 Zanahiyr chg Gordon Elliott f4-1-1 (-) 80
    Nathaniel (Marju){9-c}(0.53) 2/1 Zarinava 1st Doncaster Mares’ Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
    Zahahiyr had four runs on the flat for Michael Halford, all of which took place in maiden company. He made his racecourse debut in a seven furlong contest at the Curragh last October where he was a four and a half length sixth behind four pattern class horses including Irish Derby runner-up Tiger Moth. He was just under nine lengths ninth when returning to the Curragh in June where he finished behind classic winners Galileo Chrome and Serpentine. Stepped up to thirteen furlongs on soft ground at Navan, he failed by a length and a quarter to justify favouritism but was able to get off the mark last time out at Fairyhouse in early July. Racing over a mile and a half on good to yielding ground, Zanahiyr took up the running at the distance and lengthened well inside the final furlong to win by just over a length. Being a midsummer maiden race for older horses, it was not of the highest quality. Nevertheless, of the front seven who were clear of the remainder, are all rated at least 70 (three rated 80 or above) and can count two subsequent winners amongst themselves, so the standard is decent enough for flat recruits to the sphere. He has since been sold privately to run for Gordon Elliott who is the winningmost trainer of juveniles in Ireland. Twelve of the twenty-three juveniles who joined the yard from the flat after private transactions have won races including top-class types Farclas, Mega Fortune, Mitchouka and Clarcam. Horses whose careers began with Michael Halford have a 25.53% winners to runners rate and a very healthy 61.54% improvement rate. Nathaniel has made a fine start with his first three crops in the division with 47% of his offspring winning races, including the first and fourth in last season’s Triumph Hurdle. Marju’s record as a damsire is below average but his broodmares are still capable of producing useful sorts such as Ultimate and Lake Champlain. It is not unusual for horses bred by the Aga Khan to be related to useful jumpers and Zanahiyr is no exception. While his half-brother only managed to finish placed over hurdles, his dam is a half-sister to Doncaster Mares’ Hurdle winner Zarinava and her half-brother Zarif twice finished runner-up in the Velka Pardubicka. Zanahiyr’s fourth dam Zahra, daughter of the brilliant Petite Etoile, is the matriarch of a family that includes the likes of Zafarabad, Zarkandar, Zaiyad, Zaynar and Zaidpour.

    33/1 Baladin de Mesc bg Gabriel Leenders j6-2-3 (68/149.6) 140
    Choeur du Nord (Discover d’Auteuil){7}(x) 2/1 Miserable 1st Prix Congress (G2), Auteuil 2008
    With six races over obstacles already, Baladin de Mesc is the most experienced jumper in the markets. After falling at the brook midway through a Clairefontaine steeplechase, he entered the Triumph Hurdle lists after winning the Listed Prix des Platanes on the first of September. There he beat four previous hurdles winners and he stepped up again on that performance when second in the Grade 3 Prix Robert Lejeune three weeks later. That race featured France’s three leading juveniles by prizemoney and he emerged as strongest at the weights. While Baladin de Mesc’s abilities are already established, a couple of observations can be made on his pedigree for posterity. Choeur du Nord is having his first crop of hurdlers of which Baladin de Mesc is the only winner from four thus far. His career saw him retire before the summer of his three-year-old career after two wins and a second over hurdles at Auteuil. A son of top National Hunt stallion Voix du Nord (Taquin du Seuil, Defi du Seuil, Espoir d’Allen), Choeur du Nord is also a half-brother to the dams of Benie des Dieux and Cokoriko. Baladin de Mesc’s dam is a full sister to Prix Congress winner Miserable and is 3/3 on the damline with Supreme Novices’ third Itchy Feet. Gabriel Leenders has been the source of three non-winning juveniles in the UK but while he has yet to have a runner on these islands, a trip to Cheltenham’s November meeting has been reported. Baladin De Mesc has achieved a good standard over hurdles and patently has a touch of class although the fact that he may swerve the Prix Cambaceres suggests that he may not have the requisite talent to win a race like the Triumph Hurdle

    33/1 Bring On The Night bg W P Mullins f3-2-0 FrF (92.4)
    Gleneagles (Dubai Destination){2-d}(0.52) 3/2 Schelem 1st 3yo Hurdle, Dax 2020
    Since the 2008/09 season, Andre Fabre has been the source of twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland. Twelve of those won during their first season over obstacles but while half of them were rated at least 85 on the flat, that class largely fails to translate with Fred Winter placed duo Alexander Severus and Saticon the most successful of such types. Nevertheless, Willie Mullins has a good record with juvenile hurdlers recruited from the French flat. Twelve of the twenty during the time period have been winners including high class sorts Petitie Parisienne, Burning Victory, Diakali, Saldier and Saglawy. Bring On The Night had three runs on the flat and was successful on his latest two starts. His debut came in a Chantilly maiden in early March where he was slow from the start and finished a never nearer eighth of ten. He was better next time however when a clear winner from a strung out field in a twelve furlong Compiegne maiden later that month. The runner-up, his better fancied stablemate on the day, has not won in four subsequent outings but is currently rated 82.5. Two flat winners have come out of that race, albeit in minor races at Clairefontaine and Tours, as well as a winning steeplechaser. Bring On The Night followed up in late May on the all-weather in a Deauville conditions race over 2500 metres. This was a more hard fought success and he finished three-quarters of a length ahead of a horse currently rated 85.8. The second and third have since won small races at Toulouse and Le Touquet. Bring On The Night’s rating of 92.4 is rather difficult to justify but he has a good size to him along with a decent attitude. There are not many clues in his sirelines insofar as a hurdling career is concerned as his sire Gleneagles has yet to be tested, although Galileos can make decent sires in the sphere. Dubai Destination has only nine juveniles as a damsire but three of them have been winners including the useful Forth Bridge. The damlines are rather less encouraging however as apart from Schelem (3/2) winning a minor event at Dax, the few close relatives who have tried hurdling have achieved little.

    40/1 Baron Samedi bg Joseph Patrick O’Brien f9-4-0 (97) 107
    Harbour Watch (Haafhd){1-l}(3.00) 3/1 Creekside 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (123), Ascot 2012
    Since sacrificing his testicles in August for the greater good, Baron Samedi has improved beyond recognition and he recently completed a four-timer at Listowel off a mark thirty-two pounds higher than when when he began his winning sequence. The owners are yet to have a jumps runner and there has been no word that juvenile hurdling is on the radar for the time being. Should connections opt to go down that route then Baron Samedi’s pedigree is a reasonable one as a third of his sire’s juveniles have been winners, and while Haafhd has yet to have a winner as a damsire, he was useful in the division with his own progeny.

    40/1 Youmdor bg W P Mullins f8-2-4 (82.5) 83
    Youmzain (Kentucky Dynamite){2-s}(0.89) 3/1 Attiki Oddo 2nd Handicap Hurdle, Enghien 2012
    Night And Day and Bring On The Night have already been mentioned as ex-French recruits for Willie Mullins, and Youmdor is another name that can be added to that list. After finishing down the field in a trio of maiden contests, Youmdor has finished first or second in all of his five starts since switching to handicaps. He broke his duck on his handicap debut just before Christmas at Chantilly where he produced a very late burst to grab victory on the line. He was twice runner-up at the same venue in the new year and filled that position for a third time in a ten furlong Saint-Cloud handicap in May, finishing late once again. His spell of seconditis was ended last time out however when he ran out a neck winner of a “Quinte+” handicap over ten furlongs at Deauville at the end of May. That race has not produced many winners although the third was able to win a similar contest at Compiegne two starts later. Youmzain has had five juvenile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland and two of them have been winners including the ill-fated Saglawy who was third in the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown. Kentucky Dynamite has yet to be tested as a damsire but four of his five own juveniles in the UK were winners including Kentucky Hyden and Unanimite.

    40/1 Busselton was already addressed earlier in the thread and has since been installed at 40/1 (initially 50/1). The only real update to his form is that the Prix Wild Monarch still has just the one subsequent runner from the first four (Hades), but he has since been able to win a steeplechase at Auteuil.

    50/1 Punctuation bc Andrew Balding f7-1-3 (85) 91
    Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,120), Cork 2003
    As mentioned earlier in this thread, the Andrew Balding yard usually has a sizeable disperstion of its three-year-olds at the autumn sales but those who are sold are no likelier to go over hurdles than they are to race overseas or stay on the flat. Punctuation is still with Andrew Balding and until it is confirmed that he has joined a national hunt yard, he probably should not be listed for the Triumph Hurdle.

    50/1 Duffle Coat has been covered in the preview for Saturday’s race and is another available at 50/1. If he wins at Gowran Park, that price probably won’t last very long.

    100/1 Sefton Warrior also appears on the lists although the 100/1 quote looked very skinny even before his mediocre hurdling debut at Huntingdon yesterday.

    #1504461
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    Duffle Coat the only one that’s really caught my eye so far, though I always suspect that these early season ones might be more likely to go Boodles.

    Obviously if that race gets the chop, then that would change things.

    #1504463
    Bachelors HallBachelors Hall
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    I really hope it doesn’t because the Triumph has become a much better race for its introduction.

    There was a time when trainers would avoid the Triumph like the plague because of how its chaotic nature could ruin a good young horse. Would be a real shame if it went back to that state.

    #1504795
    Cork All Star
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    I hope the Fred Winter stays as well. It is one of my favourites amongst the new races. There is a chance to back a horse at a good price who is unexposed and ahead of the handicapper. Flaxen Flare bolting up a few years ago is a very happy memory!

    #1505590
    Bachelors HallBachelors Hall
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    Definitely a huge sense of relief regarding the Fred Winter. My only punting memory from that race is watching River Liane make me look like a mug after telling everybody I knew to back it and enjoy an early retirement…

    Just in case anybody has yet to experience the glory of essay length previews for nondescript juvenile hurdle races, the look ahead to today’s race at Chepstow can be found here;-

    https://theracingforum.co.uk/forums/topic/juvenile-hurdlers-2020-2021/page/7/#post-1505371

    Along with Hell Red, a few other horses in the Triumph lists have upcoming entries. Baladin de Mesc (33/1) is set to line up in a listed steeplechase at Auteuil tomorrow afternoon at 14:00 local time (13:00 in the UK/Ireland/Portugal/Faroe Islands/Sierra Leone etc). The first and third from the Prix Kargal (a.k.a the second and third from the Prix Weather Permitting) are among his opponents as is I’m Walking (fourth to Quilixios and second to Heros d’Ainay) who will be making his chase debut.

    On Tuesday at Punchestown, Duffle Coat (50/1) and Quilixios (25/1) are among the entries in a winners-of-two. The pair were set to meet at Gowran Park last week but Quilixios was withdrawn due to the ground. Then on Wednesday, Midnights Legacy (33/1) could make his hurdling debut and while he has been beaten on his last two starts on the flat, his story is an interesting one. Possible opponents at this stage include the impressive Cartmel winner Naizagai, First Impression, an 89 rated newcomer for John Quinn from the family of Fred Winter fourth Kazlian, and Camahawk – a Tim Easterby trained Camelot half-brother to Fred Winter winner Hawk High.

    #1505643
    MarkTTMarkTT
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    Hell Red is a stunning horse. Absolutely loves jumping

    #1505827
    Bachelors HallBachelors Hall
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    Agreed Mark. He looks a different breed to everything else we have seen thus far.

    Baladin de Mesc was beaten eighteen lengths in the listed chase yesterday but apart from missing La Plage and being slow over the last, jumped well for the most part. https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2020-10-11/R1/C1

    Quilixios is set to run at Punchestown tomorrow, the preview for that race is available on the juvenile hurdler thread, and Midnights Legacy has been declared for Wetherby on Wednesday. Nicky Henderson’s Overpriced Mixer (40/1) and Paul Nicholls’ Viroflay hold entries at Kempton this Sunday.

    The first of these images has already been posted in this thread, the second shows the source of the Fred Winter and Triumph runners since 2010.

    #1505851
    MarkTTMarkTT
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    In fact, I’m going all in on Hell Red for this – by that I mean we may see several other impressive juveniles but the manner with which he won that, his incredible scope for progress…I’ll stick with him until March. It was like watching a slicker Simonsig

    I just hope it isn’t a weak year for the Supreme.

    #1505931
    Bachelors HallBachelors Hall
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    The review for today’s race is up in the juvenile hurdlers thread.

    Along with Midnights Legacy tomorrow, other upcoming entries include;-

    Friday – Uttoxeter – Overpriced Mixer
    Saturday – Ballinrobe – Zanahiyr and Dark Voyager
    Sunday – Kempton – Overpriced Mixer and Viroflay
    Sunday – Auteuil – Baladin de Mesc, Heros d’Ainay, Raffles Face, Bannister

    #1506306
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    Thought Dark Voyager interesting enough at 33’s for this. Probably too early to see the yards real contenders for this, but quite hopeful for this horse, and hope he shows something tomorrow.

    #1506716
    GladiateurGladiateur
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    English King is to be put up for sale at Tattersalls next week. Anyone fancy a TRF whip-round to buy the 2021 Triumph Hurdle winner?

    #1506745
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
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    Hell Red is not for sell, Gladiateur !!

    Member since March 2008
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