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It would be fair to say the Triumph has become less of a lottery since the introduction of the Fred Winter but how long has it been since a horse won it with only one run under his belt? I know Royal Epic did it cos I backed him
but has there be any or many since?Time is pressing on and as Roya Mix and According haven’t jumped a hurdle in public yet it surely makes them dodgy bets?
It would be fair to say the Triumph has become less of a lottery since the introduction of the Fred Winter but how long has it been since a horse won it with only one run under his belt? I know Royal Epic did it cos I backed him
but has there be any or many since?Time is pressing on and as Roya Mix and According haven’t jumped a hurdle in public yet it surely makes them dodgy bets?
Fist, Royal Mix ran at Newbury on 27th November 2009 in a Juveniles Novices Hurdle on good to soft, beating Me Voici by 3 and a half lengths, jumping very well despite having to be driven right out. Based on this evidence RM is surely not a "dodgy bet" at around 16/1?
Carlito Brigante is interesting. Won at 20/1 in last two runs, and not obviously fancied, he beat Alaivan quite nicely. Average flat form in Ireland, though jumped quite well – hard to weigh up in this context as his form to date despite his last run does not seem top class.
This one is due to appear at Musselburgh on Sunday. I didn’t attach any particular significance to his win at Musselburgh before Christmas, but since then he did the job well in better company at Leopardstown. His trainer stressed that he needs good ground, the going was very testing for his unplaced debut, so it’s no surprise to see Elliott aim towards East Lothian once again. More significantly he will likely get good ground come mid-March.
The main opposition will come from surprise Cheltenham winner Baccalaureate, making a swift reappearance, and Ascendant, formerly a decent flat handicapper with Sir Mark Prescott, a comfortable winner on hurdling debut for Howard Johnson at Musselburgh in what was a fair looking novice contest. Ascendant got a 33/1 quote for the Triumph, but my initial reaction was that this a standard price for any four-year-old that wins a half decent novice
event. He has a chance to step up on that now.Rob
What a poor looking specimen of a horse, According is,not only does he look like a pit pony he ran like one £20 down the tube for the Triumph there! I would have lost another score to "Media Gecko" had we had a wager! Phew,that would have hurt more!
Another one bites the dust!
Pittoni’s the one to beat lads!
pittoni runs tomorrow, i think,as does carlito brigante(who i’ve already backed)
Royal Mix still for me, Pittoni’s race tomorrow isn’t strong another to judge him on properly although the Carlito Brigante matches him and fellow pretender Baccalaureate but I expect the former to triumph.
just had a sneaky little bet on soldier bay to turn pittoni over tomorrow,nothing between them on previous running
"gundasta" wrote: just had a sneaky little bet on soldier bay to turn pittoni over tomorrow,nothing between them on previous running
Did you see the race?
The main opposition will come from surprise Cheltenham winner Baccalaureate, making a swift reappearance, and Ascendant, formerly a decent flat handicapper with Sir Mark Prescott, a comfortable winner on hurdling debut for Howard Johnson at Musselburgh in what was a fair looking novice contest. Ascendant got a 33/1 quote for the Triumph, but my initial reaction was that this a standard price for any four-year-old that wins a half decent novice
event. He has a chance to step up on that now.Rob
Not exactly much similarity between Musselburgh and Cheltenham. Ascendant looked a staying-type on the Flat and he also didn’t appear to handle Kempton too well so it will very encouraging if he can follow up tomorrow. As for the current price with an expensive Wylie purchase the bookmakers are unlikely to be too generous. How did he jump first time?
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Won easily and the pace was very strong, he looked different class to Pittoni who simply isn’t a Cheltenham horse IMO.
Not exactly much similarity between Musselburgh and Cheltenham. Ascendant looked a staying-type on the Flat and he also didn’t appear to handle Kempton too well so it will very encouraging if he can follow up tomorrow. As for the current price with an expensive Wylie purchase the bookmakers are unlikely to be too generous. How did he jump first time?
The difference between Cheltenham and Musselburgh hasn’t stopped a few trainers using Musselburgh as their tune up for Cheltenham, notably Ferdy Murphy with Kalahari King for the Arkle last year. The key point is that Musselburgh is one of the few tracks that can give trainers similar good or near good going to that normally experienced during the Festival. That counts for more than some would believe.
Carlito Brigante put in another convincing performance, Gordon Elliott targeting Musselburgh because of the decent ground. I haven’t seen many better juvenile performances this season as the pacemaker made it a genuine test.
AScendant’s run was too bad to be true. Admittedly there was a sharp pace set by Ultimate, who earned a deserved second place, but Ascendant was cooked by the home turn. He was called in for a dope test afterwards, but I suspect there may have been some sort of ailment.
Rob
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