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Getting back to the Triumph.
Paul Nicholls has had horses beaten at 9/2, 4/6F, 11/4 and 7/4F at Taunton this afternoon and whilst I appreciate that it takes a brave man to lay one of Ditcheat’s Festival-bound novices, current evidence suggests that you’d have to be equally mad to back one.
At the very least the defeat of some of the yard’s lesser lights would suggest that the dip in form is due to a common environmental factor, rather than the bubbles of otherwise promising animals being burst.
You’re on a different planet, TAPK.
Quite what my laying habits have to do with you I’m not sure, but what is proving so difficult for you to understand? I may choose to lay According at, for the sake of argument, 10/1, with a view to amassing a liability of £500 (that’s a stake of £50, just in case you’re struggling with the maths). If those odds are snapped up, so strong is my belief that According won’t win the Triumph, I will lay him again at whatever price the market dictates. If he’s now 9.8/1, I’ll lay him at that. If he’s 10.2/1, I’ll lay him at that. Hell, I might even live dangerously and lay him at even bigger odds, just to guarantee my preset liability.
If you want your 50p on – three-figure bet on Mikael D’Haguenet my a*se – be my guest.
Media, You have already reached your preset liability with your first stake of £50, you muppet
Here"s a quick one for you-
You want to LAY a horse at 1/2,[thats odds on for you],your stake is £50,the horse WINS, how much do you lose? be quick now!Quite what my laying habits have to do with you I’m not sure, but what is proving so difficult for you to understand?
I think its you who doesn"t understand! Do you?
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If only there had been a question so taxing during my time at university, TAPK, perhaps that first class degree in Finance and Mathematics would have eluded me.
Alas not.
When did I declare that a liability of £500 was my limit? O, wait, I didn’t.
What you seem to have failed to grasp is the fact that, as ‘lay him, lay him again and lay him some more’ would suggest, I lay in blocks. Just as you’ve had £1 on Mikael D’Haguenet at 20/1, 50p at 16/1 and 20p at 12/1, I will lay to amass a certain liability, re-assess the market, adjust my approach as required and increase that liability. And just in case that hasn’t sunk in this time – I considered creating a pop-up version for you, with big writing in pretty colours, but thought better of it – I refer you to my previous post:
"…if those odds are snapped up, so strong is my belief that According won’t win the Triumph, I will
lay him again
…"
Separate transactions, genius.
Now, can we bring the latest edition of the ‘Look At TAPK Show’ to an end and focus on the original subject of the thread? Marvellous.
I may choose to lay According at, for the sake of argument, 10/1, with a view to amassing a liability of £500
Whats that then?
I hate all this laying business, dont understand it (wont even pretend
) and dont really want to understand.
The day I stand there willing a horse to lose will be the day I stop enjoying horse racing as a sport… I really hope that day never comes.It’s all irrelevant anyway because Royal Mix wins!
I hate all this laying business, dont understand it (wont even pretend
) and dont really want to understand.
The day I stand there willing a horse to lose will be the day I stop enjoying horse racing as a sport… I really hope that day never comes.It’s all irrelevant anyway because Royal Mix wins!
No problem with your honesty andrew, unfortunately there are an awful lot of punters that haven"t a clue about laying and yet think they do! Media Gecko has proved that clearly!
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Even if you back a horse to win, Andrew, you have to hope that everything else in the race loses. That said, I understand where you’re coming from – the dynamics of the race are very different when you’re viewing a number of horses negatively rather than one or two positively.
I don’t tend to watch a race thinking particularly negatively though, as racing is what I love. Betting certainly adds another dimension to the experience, but at the end of the day it’s only money and the sport is what ultimately excites.
Royal Mix is an interesting contender, though it remains to be seen what he achieved in beating Me Voici at Newbury (I think he came on a great deal for the run and beat a very tired horse in Sang Bleu next time). He has nothing to find on flat form with According however and was apparently spoken of very highly by Paul Nicholls earlier in the season.
I don’t know that I’d be keen to back him, but he’s one I wouldn’t be rushing to lay either.
The only other horse i’m interested in is Secant Star. Wanted to back him before his last race when his price was double to that now. However, only a couple of the smaller firms were offering odds on him. 12/1 looks too skinny now for a horse who might need to improve in the jumping department to stand a chance of winning.
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He was certainly impressive at Gowran Park, Andrew, and if the Triumph is his intended target – I’m sure I read somewhere that the Supreme was under consideration at one point – I don’t think 12/1 is all that bad a price.
Interestingly enough Capellanus, who finished seven lengths behind Secant Star last time, has flat form that ties in with Royal Mix and According.
According leads Royal Mix 2-1 in Head-To-Head’s. Think a win on Saturday will do nicely and According
DOES NOT
need soft ground, his only two poor runs have come on "soft" and "very soft" – his wins have come on good to soft (twice) and soft whilst his runner-up spot’s to Daryakana and Zerkeriya came on good.
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Edited.
He was certainly impressive at Gowran Park, Andrew, and if the Triumph is his intended target – I’m sure I read somewhere that the Supreme was under consideration at one point – I don’t think 12/1 is all that bad a price.
Interestingly enough Capellanus, who finished seven lengths behind Secant Star last time, has flat form that ties in with Royal Mix and According.
I also think 12/1 is a fair enough price but when backing anti-post I like the odds a lot larger. Dont really see the the point of backing him at 12’s now because it’s more or less what he’ll be on the day imo(famous last words!)
The Triumph usually throws up a big price somewhere whether it’s win or place. The search continues…..Secant Star is a fine chasing prospect for next year but I could see him getting taken off his feet in a helter skelter race like the Triumph. Willie had a half-brother to Zaynar who was supposedly his big hope for the juvenile hurdles but he has now been ruled out for the season.
The Triumph is a real conundrum for me but I’m leaning towards Royal Mix based on his debut where he jumped impeccably, an attribute highlighted by PN in his stable tour. Seemed to go on any ground in France, and won on good to soft at Newbury. The only slight doubt is whether Cheltenham will suit or not, but the fact that he jumps and gallops so well makes him the one to beat in my view; the 16/1 looks a tad overpriced to me.
Mille Chief has been solid but not outstanding so far, but seems to do just enough to win as when he beat Westlin’ Winds, a decent yardstick, by 2 lengths then beat a nothing field by 6 lengths at Huntingdon. He looks in the similar mould to Walkon which is a good sign. Whether the 5/1 on offer is value or not is debatable.
Secant Star made short work of an average field LTO but jumping was a little sketchy as was seen when he fell the time before that, I know obviously that this is a novice hurdle and a lot are entitled to make mistakes in order to learn, but at Cheltenham you can’t afford to make that many.
I’m afraid I have not seen any of According’s French runs to date but looking at his profile he was a remote 8th to Royal Mix in a listed race there and though he has improved to win since, he is held by this form it seems despite being snapped up by Nicky Henderson.
I had a small ante-post bet on Alaivan a few months ago after a very impressive run and although disappointing behind Carlito Brigante LTO, I feel he was in front too soon in the race and would probably be best suited being held either prominently or just off the pace. However he has so far shown a liking for soft ground so that could be a worry next month.
Carlito Brigante is interesting. Won at 20/1 in last two runs, and not obviously fancied, he beat Alaivan quite nicely. Average flat form in Ireland, though jumped quite well – hard to weigh up in this context as his form to date despite his last run does not seem top class.
I think it’s too soon to write off Pistolet Noir – looked a bit out of sorts LTO and very green, maybe an effect from the lull in Nicholls’s form late January after inocculation. He has C&D form which is invaluable in my view.
In summary then the Triumph looks a tough nut to crack but based on jumping of hurdles on albeit limited evidence so far, Royal Mix gets my vote.
I’m afraid I have not seen any of According’s French runs to date but looking at his profile he was a remote 8th to Royal Mix in a listed race there and though he has improved to win since, he is held by this form it seems despite being snapped up by Nicky Henderson.
Rich,Accordings breeding suggests anything he did at 3yo was a bonus,he has the profile of a very progressive individual!Looking forward to his debut,he"s not 2nd fav for the Triumph hurdle for nothing,he will be favourite afterwards though!I ought to have a wager with Media Gecko and empty his piggy bank!
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