- This topic has 432 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
I’d love to know if anyone managed to get the 33s on the selection. I was on oddschecker around 8 last night (because I’m a very sad individual) and it was cut to 20s within seconds past the hour.
It’s been bumped back to 25s this morning at 9am (which is when PW selections are traditionally held, but there was no sign of the 33s.
Arctic Fire is as low as 16/1 with some firms and that is lamentable value.
I can only imagine Pricewise is basing the bet on Arctic Fire’s third behind Hurricane Fly and Jezki last time, when he wasn’t beaten that far. He went into that race rated 22lbs behind each horse and was raised seven pounds in the ratings on the back of that. That leaves him at least a stone short of the required level and I don’t trust the assessment, particularly as he had just gone down 3lbs for running behind Irving.
Let’s get this right now, Arctic Fire is just two points longer (In some places) than a two time champion with a list of grade ones as long as his plonker?
Anyway, thanks for putting this prize up VTC, a noble gesture and much appreciated. Will find a better one than Arctic Fire for this shortly
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He’s picked a few strange ones for the Champion Hurdle before. Several years ago, he chose that Paul Nolan horse who the Galway Hurdle
The value angle in Arctic Fire is in the place part of the bet. He should be any price to win but has a decent place chance in a race that should be run to suit.
I agree the tip is a strange one. To be fair to Tom though, there’s little value in the market at all – and the list of probable winners ends at three. He also spent most of the article trying to out people off having a bet. If I was him, I’d have probably put up The Fly NRNB – as if it’s good ground it wont run, but if it’s a bog he has a chance – and it will certainly inconvenience TNO and Jezki.
My gripe is (as ever) with the prices quoted. No chance anyone without any link to the RP got 33/1. It was impossible.
The value angle in Arctic Fire is in the place part of the bet. He should be any price to win but has a decent place chance in a race that should be run to suit.
I’m not keen on each-way bets where there is little chance of collecting on the win part Tommy.
If both Hurricane Fly and Jezki turn up on the day, there are two horses who really should finish ahead of Arctic Fire, all things being equal. Add in Faugheen and The New One and that leaves 5th place at best for Arctic Fire unless there are some fallers.
Arctic Fire is due to face Hurricane Fly and Jezki again in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month and he is 14/1 for that race.
Can anyone really make a case for him being 14/1 for that race and, as low as, 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle itself?
With the same two horses potentially in the mix and with Faugheen and The New One added in, how can he possibly be only two points bigger for the latter race?
Answers on a postcard to:-
The Chief Medical Officer
Mental Health Department
The National Health Service
The United Kingdom
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done VTC always enjoy this! And thanks for your very generous offer of a prize. Should I be lucky enough to win I’ll take it as a betting slip on your selection of the grand national winner if you’d be so kind, win only!
Champion hurdle? Only one bet makes sense to me at this point. 2 points win Jezki 6/1 generally. Funny things happen in this race, but I reckon only 5 may turn up yet!
I am torn between Irving and Purple Bay as the value, both being 50/1.
My initial view was that Irving would prove the better horse but he looks a bit awkward as a jumper and his last run poses questions.
In mitigation there is the fact that Irving has pus in his foot the next day and that may well have been why he ran badly. Amusingly, I read on another forum that he had puss in his foot, so maybe that is why he ran such a "cat" race.
I felt Purple Bay kept on well behind Faugheen for second last time and I suppose his chance hinges on how good Faugheen actually is. Purple Bay was left on 161 after that race, which I know some people think overrates his actual ability. However, that leaves him higher in the ratings than Arctic Fire, whose own rating could also questioned. At 50/1 Purple Bay appeals more and is the selection over Irving because of the latter horse’s problems this season.
Champion Hurdle Purple Bay each-way 50/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The value angle in Arctic Fire is in the place part of the bet. He should be any price to win but has a decent place chance in a race that should be run to suit.
I’m not keen on each-way bets where there is little chance of collecting on the win part Tommy.
If both Hurricane Fly and Jezki turn up on the day, there are two horses who really should finish ahead of Arctic Fire, all things being equal. Add in Faugheen and The New One and that leaves 5th place at best for Arctic Fire unless there are some fallers.
Arctic Fire is due to face Hurricane Fly and Jezki again in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month and he is 14/1 for that race.
Can anyone really make a case for him being 14/1 for that race and, as low as, 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle itself?
With the same two horses potentially in the mix and with Faugheen and The New One added in, how can he possibly be only two points bigger for the latter race?
Answers on a postcard to:-
The Chief Medical Officer
Mental Health Department
The National Health Service
The United Kingdom
I’d normally agree with you 100% David but this is an attractive each way race imo. He has next to no chance of winning but the win part of the bet can be easily laid off. What Arctic Fire needs is a strong gallop to settle himself and finish strongly. With Faugheen and possibly a JP pacemaker in this, the likelihood is he’ll get that strong gallop. A scenario I can easily see happening is Jezki and The New One going after the pace too early and one or other of the big guns fading up the hill. Arctic Fire is not going to be involved in the race for victory but could very easily pass a couple of spent forces on the run in.
At 14/1 for the Irish Champion Hurdle, I would not see him as a value price given the race is much less likely to be run to suit and there are only two places on offer for an each way bet.
The value angle in Arctic Fire is in the place part of the bet. He should be any price to win but has a decent place chance in a race that should be run to suit.
I’m not keen on each-way bets where there is little chance of collecting on the win part Tommy.
If both Hurricane Fly and Jezki turn up on the day, there are two horses who really should finish ahead of Arctic Fire, all things being equal. Add in Faugheen and The New One and that leaves 5th place at best for Arctic Fire unless there are some fallers.
Arctic Fire is due to face Hurricane Fly and Jezki again in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month and he is 14/1 for that race.
Can anyone really make a case for him being 14/1 for that race and, as low as, 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle itself?
With the same two horses potentially in the mix and with Faugheen and The New One added in, how can he possibly be only two points bigger for the latter race?
Answers on a postcard to:-
The Chief Medical Officer
Mental Health Department
The National Health Service
The United Kingdom
I’d normally agree with you 100% David but this is an attractive each way race imo. He has next to no chance of winning but the win part of the bet can be easily laid off. What Arctic Fire needs is a strong gallop to settle himself and finish strongly. With Faugheen and possibly a JP pacemaker in this, the likelihood is he’ll get that strong gallop. A scenario I can easily see happening is Jezki and The New One going after the pace too early and one or other of the big guns fading up the hill. Arctic Fire is not going to be involved in the race for victory but could very easily pass a couple of spent forces on the run in.
At 14/1 for the Irish Champion Hurdle, I would not see him as a value price given the race is much less likely to be run to suit and there are only two places on offer for an each way bet.
Just checked oddschecker and all the major bookies are 20/1 or bigger Arctic Fire, you have to search for a bit to find that 16/1, which I agree would be short if it was top price, given hevwas double it a few days ago.
I’ve talked about this on the other forum but there are no form lines to date that have Arctic Fire as a better horse than Diakali and yet he is a now a third of the price of his stablemate.
Nor is there any concrete evidence which suggests that Arctic Fire is heading for the Champion Hurdle and Diakali isn’t.
They are both set to run in the Irish Champion hurdle and when Diakali finishes in front of Arctic Fire – or even close to, given it’ll be his FTO – all those 33/1 e/w slips will be meaningless.
Diakali is most likely not good enough to finish in even the top 3 in the Champion Hurdle (and may head for Aintree again instead) but he’s better than Arctic Fire, even over 2m and that will put an end to Arctic Fire’s chances.
Lee
Arctic Fire one third of the price? 25/1 vs 50/1, no need to exaggerate.
Diakali ran a very good race in the County last year (where he comes out better than Arctic Fire at the weights) and has some top form in the book but one would imagine there’s a reason his last three runs have been over two and half or three miles. He stays well and the World Hurdle rather than the Champion could be on the agenda I imagine. 50/1 can be got NRNB though if that tickles your fancy.
I think it’s likely Arctic Fire has improved since the County Hurdle and while he may not be at Diakali’s level yet, he’s going the right way and he has no other obvious target, whereas the World Hurdle or another crack at the Aintree Hurdle is probably the ultimate aim with Diakali.
Realistically it will be a surprise if the top three in the market don’t finish 1-2-3 but circumstances could conspire to set things up for an Arctic Fire/Purple Bay/Diakali to run into a place.
Arctic Fire one third of the price? 25/1 vs 50/1, no need to exaggerate.
.Who’s exaggerating ?. Diakali available @ 104 on the machine.
And I agree that Diakali is probably heading elsewhere but if he beats Arctic Fire in the Irish Champion then do you think WPM will still send the latter for the big one ?. Why would he bother.
Lee
Arctic Fire one third of the price? 25/1 vs 50/1, no need to exaggerate.
.Who’s exaggerating ?. Diakali available @ 104 on the machine.
And I agree that Diakali is probably heading elsewhere but if he beats Arctic Fire in the Irish Champion then do you think WPM will still send the latter for the big one ?. Why would he bother.
Lee
Apologies, I didn’t realise you were referring to exchange prices. That price is not relevant to my point though, that I prefer Arctic Fire’s chances of placing to Diakali’s.
If Diakali beats Arctic Fire in the Irish Champion Hurdle then I’ll be better off if Arctic Fire doesn’t go to Cheltenham as I’ll get my stake back. The Ryanair Hurdle was a bit strange though in that it was run at a faster pace than we usually get in Ireland. That really suited Arctic Fire, unlike a lot of races here, so whether he runs at Cheltenham or not will probably depend on the manner of his defeat at Leopardstown and whether the race was run to suit. I imagine the Irish Champion Hurdle will be very much a pipe opener for Diakali so would be surprised if he beats Arctic Fire there, even if the pace is slow.
I’m not trying to run down Diakali by the way, on what they’ve shown so far he’s the superior horse of the pair, just think he’s probably better over two and half, and Arctic Fire could be improving.
Gold Cup Road to Riches 2pt win 9/1 (Boylesports)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Silviniaco conti is the only horse from last years protagonists that is entitled to consideration for this years renewal imo but at 3/1 is no kind of price given his Cheltenham form. The rest could be covered with a blanket at the finish so I’m happy to look at an emerging talent for this years winner.
Road to riches has put his best foot forward in Ireland but I’m not convinced that those heavy ground challenges are entirely relevant here. Festival form is key when looking for an improver and for that reason HOLYWELL still rates the main danger at a very generous 14/1 EW. I’m still very interested in shutthefrontdoor but he missed the Lexus and it’s too big a leap of faith without that run. Boston Bob is still a player at 20/1 but Holywell boasts a stronger profile at 2/3 the price.I’d expect to see blinkers on conti for the showpiece in March, as those cheek pieces may not continue to be as effective and he clearly needs focussing when asked for his fullest effort.
I ramble. HOLYWELL 14/1 EW the selection.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.