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Have made a Google spreadsheet. Will track the horses on this.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key= … E&hl=en_GB
-Will do an overall profit/loss based on every run spreadsheet
-Will do a stop when it wins profit/loss on a separate spreadsheet
-Will do an order of merit spreadsheet based on BHA point allocations for same
-Will do an improver spreadsheet to track which horse improves most from it’s seasonal debut BHA handicap markWill send on a tome or two to the winner of the OOM from my priceless collection of horseracing manuscripts.
A few horses already entered up for the weekend.
Jeez, you don’t look closely at the Main Forum for one day, and topics drop to the second page.
It is a bit unfair including all runs, as I’ve got Jessica Harrington saying 3m and Soft ground for Top Of The Rock, and on Sunday it is running over 2m on going that is Good, Gd to Fm in places!
Please ignore this post if it wins.
(Maybe she’s changed her mind in the past couple of years, as the horse hasn’t shown too much when it has tried 3m.)
I do hope he goes to Bangor on Saturday; it would round off a wonderful weeks racing for me and would be great for Bangor now that it has to compete with the racing from Chepstow on that day.
Try squinting when you look at Ellerslie George. Like Denman, he is a 9yo Brown gelding by Presenting, out of a Pollerton mare. (RP has Denman down as a Chestnut.
)Ellerslie George is 2 days older than Denman.
He’s quite fancied as well, I think, with a 7lb claimer. I was wondering if they would have Comply or Die there in the race named after him? Better get going….and it’s stopped raining…..
Yes, Ellerslie George is a nice enough horse – unfortunately he’s been bought as a hobby horse for his jockey.
Had Ellerslie George at Bangor today. He ran another corker. I knew he would run well, considering the way he won he outing before today. I would actually add him on the list to follow.
Try squinting when you look at Ellerslie George. Like Denman, he is a 9yo Brown gelding by Presenting, out of a Pollerton mare. (RP has Denman down as a Chestnut.
)Ellerslie George is 2 days older than Denman.
Gerald,
Denman definitely is a chestnut I’m afraid.
The horse that totally dropped my jaw at Bangor was Seven is My Number; what an absolute beauty; unfortunately didn’t see the end of the race because I always go to the last fence. Luckily backed Tempsford, which will give me my Cesarewitch money. Unluckily backed My Condor and still can’t understand how a horse running from 17lb out of the handicap beat him. Emma Lavelle was talking about Kangaroo Court and said that he has to have good ground and to ignore him on anything else, but that he is a seriously good horse. Yet again a fantastic day at Bangor [didn’t we have a lovely time, tiddly pom]; the quality may be better at Chepstow, but give me Bangor any day. Next year we’re going to go down to the fence by the picnic area.[Denman is a liver chestnut which is why he doesn’t always look so good in his coat; a strange, neither here nor there colour].
Try squinting when you look at Ellerslie George. Like Denman, he is a 9yo Brown gelding by Presenting, out of a Pollerton mare. (RP has Denman down as a Chestnut.
)Ellerslie George is 2 days older than Denman.
Gerald,
Denman definitely is a chestnut I’m afraid.
Jeez, I’m always getting it wrong. That mane sure does look dark.
Was just wondering why Venetia Williams didn’t have any runners at Bangor today; or Chepstow..Has she had many runners lately? Can’t remember ever being at Bangor for this meeting in past years and not seeing her there.
Try squinting when you look at Ellerslie George. Like Denman, he is a 9yo Brown gelding by Presenting, out of a Pollerton mare. (RP has Denman down as a Chestnut.
)Ellerslie George is 2 days older than Denman.
Gerald,
Denman definitely is a chestnut I’m afraid.
Jeez, I’m always getting it wrong. That mane sure does look dark.
Liver chesnut is a common colour in Suffolk Punch horses which are only ever found as chesnut and there are seven official shades in their studbook. Just thought forum members could not get to Champions Day without knowing that.
Two novice chasers to look forward to this season.
AGGLESTONE ROCK
I’m part of a syndicate that holds a stake in the Philip Kirby trained Goldan Jess, and he has a potentially very smart performer in the shape of this fellow.
Only a 4YO, Agglestone Rock has already scored twice over the bigger obstacles, with victories at Catterick and Uttoxeter early in the summer.
RUK spoke of him as a potential Arkle horse after his impressive debut over fences and Mick Fitzgerald couldn’t speak highly enough of him before and after his latest triumph.
He’s a wonderful, clever jumper who travels very well in his races and his victory at Catterick highlighted his sharp turn of foot – I could have sworn it was Master Minded!
Whether or not he’s up to Arkle standard remains to be seen, but I know he’s been ‘wrapped up in cotton wool’ and will return in the winter.
Despite just two years on the track, he has now won on the AW and over both hurdles and fences.
QOZAK
It was only by chance I saw this chap win at Taunton in January and after jumping just three hurdles I thought ‘this horse is going to be an exciting recruit to the chasing scene next year’.
He’s a good looking, big, scopey horse with a fantastic attitude, but his biggest attribute is his jumping.
Some horses jump hurdles well but don’t translate it to fences. It was the way he shaped over them that made me think chasing was going to be his game. He must have gently clipped one or two, the rest he skipped over.
Like Agglestone Rock, he must improve considerably on what he’s done over hurdles to be a top chaser, and Paul Nicholls must have one or two above him in the pecking order for the Arkle at Dicheat.
However, he has scored over two and a half miles and perhaps the Jewson will prove to be his target.
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Would someone like to tell me whats happend to Petit Lord? Nicholls seem to get rid
Would someone like to tell me whats happend to Petit Lord? Nicholls seem to get rid
Petit Lord had his last outing for Nicholls in May 2008.
According to Wetherbys PTP website, he is now trained by Mrs Angela Rucker.
I’m no expert on the PTP scene, but he appears to be doing quite well and collected the Young Horse Award (West Midlands) this year.
I have posted a link of him in action. Scroll down and you will you see him in the ‘Cappa Bleu’ colours.
AGGLESTONE ROCK
Only a 4YO, Agglestone Rock has already scored twice over the bigger obstacles, with victories at Catterick and Uttoxeter early in the summer.
bosranic
He won at
Cartmel
not Catterick. I was there that day and the performance was very imprssive, jumped very well and hardly turned a hair in winning.
Cartmel doesn’t serve up that many potentially special performers so I thought I’d better point out the error!
Rob
- Total Posts 17716
The National Hunt season is only a stone’s throw away now and Paul Nicholls unleashed a bright prospect in Gullible Gordon at Chepstow yesterday, a race in which Nicholls has now saddled the last 4 winners and Gullible Gordon might just be his best yet, a horse that should go all the way to the highest level.
Gullible Gordon a 6yo gelded son of Anshan went off well backed odds on favourite for his chasing debut and didn’t fail to disappoint in what was a superlative round of jumping. There were no danger signals at any point during the race; Ruby Walsh let the horse bowl along out in front from the start which the horse responded with exuberance and confidence leaving absolutely nothing in the fence showing good combination and balance as he cleared all 18 without having to break sweat, he practically walked home.
That was a taking display in anyone’s books but I wanted to go a little bit further using the fine art of sectionals. I like this Chepstow card because not only does the Novice race tend to work out well theres a solid three mile chase on the card for handicappers which can consist of 145+ rated horses, this is fantastic for comparison techniques.
I’ve decided to use the last 3 runnings of this meeting which goes back to 2007, the table basically represents each section of the race as a percentage and added together to form a profile. The key here is the average benchmark for each section because it adds early pace and late sprinters into the figures as this is what leads me to believe Gullible Gordon is pretty special, if we take 2007 Novice winner Petit Lord we can see that the pacemaker in that race Vivid Imagination went off at fast fractions between fences (1-2, 3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 13-4) before weakening which show when other runners in the charts tend to keep up, in the handicaps especially with the sprint finishers.
Click Link bleow for diagram
http://www.theracingobserver.com/images … tow-3m.gif
The only horse to run up to the pace of 2007 Novice race is Gullible Gordon, if we compare how he fared;
Comparison
* · 1-2: -0.31%
* · 3-4: -0.04%
* · 5-6: +0.05%
* · 7-8: -0.15%
* · 9-10: -0.14%
* · 11-12: -0.45%
* · 13-14: -0.46%
* · 15-16: +0.01%
* · 17-18: +0.40%As you can see this is a clear example of how quick they ran in 2007 and if you did see the race today you’d of known Gullible Gordon practically walked home yet he’s turned over a significant percentage during the 17-18.
Let’s get onto Herecomesthetruth; this is a horse that went onto much better things from his Novice win and is a definite benchmark and a route Gullible Gordon could possible follow. Looking through the table theres only two sections he’s failed to beat the average; 3-4 and 5-6 but theres about 0.04% in this and I’d be leaning towards saying he has beat the average but you just can’t tamper with the figures.
* · 1-2: -0.28%
* · 3-4: +0.44%
* · 5-6: +0.46%
* · 7-8: +0.11%
* · 9-10: +0.11%
* · 11-12: + 0.09%
* · 13-14: +0.40%
* · 15-16: +0.44%
* · 17-18: +0.52%What I like about the last 3 running’s of this card is that they’ve all been pretty much run on the same ground which great credit must be given to Chepstow for their reliability and consistency;
Good Ground = -0.74 to 1.75
* · 2009 – 1.48
* · 2008 – 1.90
* · 2007 – -0.21Paul Nicholls record in the race you’d say his horse’s were pretty tuned up to go and if we take Gullible Gordon’s comparison with Herecomesthetruth then he’s every bit as good as the later who went on to win 4 of his next 6 races including Group 1 and Group 2 novices successes.
Would it be brave to say that that Gullible Gordon could go unbeaten during the rest of the season? Yes it would given we haven’t seen some of the leading stables contingent but would it be realistic for Gullible Gordon to go unbeaten during the rest of the season given the evidence on show? Yes it most certainly would and he remains a massive prospect.
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