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Instead in clogging up the forum with many started threads on dates i will use this thread for all of my trend selections forth coming
30th June 2009
Jockeys
Seb Sanders has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 21.59% strike rate at Brighton with a healthy LSP of +44.78 and has 5 mounts today
2.30 : Call Me Courageous (Upl)
3.30 : Lancaster Lad (Upl)
4.30 : Rough Sketch (Won 7/1)
5.00 : Artic Freedom (Upl)
5.30 : Caribbean Coral (Upl)Lanfranco Dettori has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 33.33% strike rate at Thirsk with a LSP of +0.25 and has just the 1 mount
8.00 : Yirga (Won 4/5)
Adrian (Trotter) Nicholls has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 12.86% strike rate at Hamilton with a LSP of +15.70 and goes to the Scottish course for just the one ride today.
2.45 : Metroland (Upl)
Trainers
Richard Fahey has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 19.41% strike rate at Hamilton with a LSP of +26.24 and has runners today
2.45 : Gap Princess (Won 2/1)
3.45 : Stateside (Won 3/1)
5.15 : Optical Illusion (Won 11/2)
5.45 : AcquavellaClive Cox has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 30.00% strike rate at Brighton with a LSP of +18.50 and has just the 1 runner
5.00 : Perfect Class (Upl)
Jeremy Noseda has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 48.78% strike rate at Brighton with a LSP of +18.47 and has just 1 runner
3.00 : Rocky’s Pride (Won 11/10)
Sir Mark Prescott has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 32.94% strike rate at Brighton with a LSP of -6.54 and has just the 1 runner
4.30 : Rough Sketch (Won 7/1)
Saeed Suroor has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 42.11% strike rate at Thirsk with a LSP of +3.81 and has just the 1 runner
8.00 : Yirga (Won 4/5)
Been away on another forum. but am going to contnue this now with my new strategy. i am going to transfer my data from the other forum to here.
Right here is my trend strategy
The trends will consist of as follows…
1).
Trainers percentage at courses
2).
Jockeys percentage at courses
3).
Trainer & Jockey Combination
4).
Speed Ratings which will be based on last 8 runs at the distance.
5).
The Horse’s Best time over the trip
6).
The Horse’s best handicap mark in an equivalant race.
On occasions you will see extra yardage in a race and i will calculate accordingly.
Example
0-50yrds =
1.25sec
51-100yrds =
1.75sec
101-150yrds =
2.25sec
151-280yrds =
2.75sec
Also i will have to calculate the loosing distance in a race and an example below.
Example
7f 32yrds Winning Time : 84.33
1 Brave Prospector
2. 1.5L Lowther
3. 2.75LBond City
The horse i will concentrate on here is the third placed Bond City who finished 4.25L behind the eventual winner.How i will calculate this is by allowing 0.50sec to every one length. This would give me an outcome of.
4.25 x 0.50 = 2.12sec will be added to the winning time which would show 86.55. Now if the next race the horse runs in shows a dead 7f distance you will have to take off the allocated distance time using the yardage chart. so example
Example
86.55 – 1.25 = 85.25
This would give me the calculated time that the horse ran over the dead 7f.
Now these trends will be allocated for races 5f – 1m either them being Handicaps or Listed to Group races
Haydock
15.30 E.b.f. Halliwells Llp Classified Stakes (Class 3) (3YO plus) 6f
Ron Price : 13.04%
Jamie Osborne : 14.04%
Richard Fahey : 11.04%
Colin Teague : 0.00%
Rod Millman : 6.12%
Dandy Nicholls : 10.22%
Henry Candy : 13.89%
Paul Green : 4.29%
Bryan Smart : 4.60%
Tim Easterby : 8.39%Points Table
Beat The Bell : 10+10+1+5+7+5 (38)
Lucky Numbers : 10+7+5+5 (27)
Masai Moon : 7+1+10 (18)
Dark Michief : 7+1+3 (11)
Barons Spy : 5+5+3+1 (14)
Fishforcompliments : 3+3+3+10+10+7 (36)
Favourite Girl : 10 (10)
Master Rooney : 1+7+1 (9)
Guertino : 5+3+3 (11)
Silaah : 1+1 (2)James Doyle : 14.29%
Kieren Fallon : 23.33%
Paul Hanagan : 11.67%
Derek Nolan : 6.82%
James Millman : 15.79%
Adrian Nicholls : 7.34%
Dane O’Neil : 8.00%
Silvestre De Sousa : 6.25%
Richard Mullen : 8.57%
David Allan : 7.05%Doyle & Price : 9.66%
Fallon & Osborne : 12.50%
Hanagan & Fahey : 13.26%
Nolan & Teague : 14.29%
Millman & Millman : 10.62%
Nicholls & Nicholls : 10.41%
O’Neil & Candy : 12.41%
Se Sousa & Green : 18.92%
Mullen & Smart : 18.60%
Allan & Easterby : 9.40%Baron’s Spy : 72.01 (Warwick) = SR 83 (88)
Beat The Bell : 70.72 (Yarmouth) = SR 117 (90 AW)
Fishforcompliments : 69.88 (Hamilton) = SR 124 (91)
Guertino : 73.16 (Newcastle) = SR 88 (89)
Masai Moon : 73.01 (Windsor) = SR 87 (95)
Silaah : 72.08 (Newmarket) = SR 82 (82)
Dark Mischief : 73.17 (Windsor) = SR 87 (89 AW)
Lucky Numbers : 70.04 (Ayr) = 110 (90)
Master Rooney : 72.51 (Hamilton) = 86 (88)
Favourite Girl : 73.60 (York) = 67 (95)BEAT THE BELL : 38
FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS : 36 (NR)
LUCKY NUMBERS : 27Black Highlighted : 1pt e/w on both @ SP
Jockeys to watch today
Yarmouth
Seb Sanders
has Accumulated over the last 10 seasons at Yarmouth a 19.03% strike rate with a LSP of +£57.54 and has four rides.
2.10 : Tudor Princess
2.40 :Togiak
4.40 : Whiskey Junction
5.10 : Rough SketchAlan Munro
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 17.05% strike rate at Yarmouth with a LSP of +£35.98 and has just two rides.
3.40 : Musigny
5.10 :Watson’s Bay
Trainers to watch today
Yarmouth
Richard Fahey
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 18.18% strike rate with a LSP deficit of -£10.16 and has just the one runner.
16.40 :
Total Impact
Haydock
Michael Dods
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 15.11% strike rate wiht a LSP of +£3.83 and has just the one runner
16.00 : Burning Incense
Ruth Carr
has accumulated over the last two seasons a 40.00% strike rate with a LSP of +£10.50 and has just the one runner.
4.00 :
Avontuur
The four highlighted in black are the played bets today
£1 Luck 15 / 2pt on each to win
Sandown
16.05 Fortune Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus) 1m 14y
Gary Moore : 7.22%
John Gosden : 18.84%
Jeremy Noseda : 23.08%
Mark Johnston : 16.21%
Mike De Kock : 0.00%
Andrew Balding : 9.88%Points Chart
Forgotten Voice : 10+7+10+3+5+5 (40)
Cadre : 7+3+7+7 (24)
Laa Rayb : 5+5+5+10+7 (32)
Ada River : 3+1+1+3+1+1 (10)
Bankable : 1+10+5+10+7+10 (43)
Zulu Chief : 3+1+3+3 (10)Ryan Moore : 21.77%
Jimmy Fortune : 12.38%
Frankie Dettori : 21.13%
Royston Ffrench : 14.06%
Pat Cosgrave : 0.00%
William Buick : 5.77%Moore & Moore : 19.57%
Fortune & Gosden : 19.81%
Dettori & Noseda : 28.57%
Ffrench & Johnston : 13.70%
Cosgrave & De Kock : 16.67%
Buick & Balding : 15.58%Bankable : 95.57 (Newmarket) SR 118 (117)
Cadre : 98.85 (Yarmouth) SR 83 (86)
Forgotten Voice : 101.66 (Ascot) SR 115 (101)
Laa Rayb : 100.80 (Windsor) SR 120 (115)
Zulu Chief : 104.85 (Newmarket) SR 88 (105)
Ada River : 103.71 (Sandown) SR 85 (100)BANKABLE
FORGOTTEN VOICE
LAA RAYBBANKABLE
:
10pt win @ 0.78 BF
Starting Bank :
100pts
Bets Placed : 3
Winners :
Seconds :
Thirds :Win Only Bets : 1
e/w Only Bets :Price Taken : 0.78
Bookie : BetfairReturns :
Loss :
Profit :Closing Bank :
96pts
Todays trainers and Jockeys to watch
Michael Dods
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 12.00% strike rate at Beverley and a LSP of +£1.34
2.00 : Croft Bridge
3.10 :Artsu
Richard Fahey
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 16.89% striker rate at Beverley with a LSP of +£1.00
3.10 : Peninsular War
5.20 : Carpe Diom
5.55 :Pacific Bay
Saeed Bin Suroor
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 36.36% strike rate at Beverley with a LSP of +£1.00
4.20 : Nafura
:China Lily
Joe Fanning
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 14.04% strike rate at Beverley with an LSP of -£22.08
3.10 : Embra
4.20 : Always Be One
4.50 :Epic
Highlighted in black are in play
50p e/w Lucky 15 / 1pt on each to win
Single Bets Placed
Opening Bank :
500pts
Bets Placed : 4
Staked :8pts
Returns : 0
Loss : 8
Profit :Closing Bank
:
492pts
Lucky 15/31/63
Opening Bank
: £500
Bets : 1
Outlay
: £15
Returns
: £50.44
Lucky 15 returns
: £50.44
Lucky 31 returns :
Lucky 63 returns :Closing Bank
: £520.44
Today a 9/1 and 5/1 double
Single Bets Placed
Opening Bank : 500pts
Bets Placed : 4
Staked :4pts
Returns
: 16pts
Loss :Profit
: +12pts
Closing Bank
: 504pts
Starting Bank
: 100pts
Bets Placed : 3
Winners : 1
Seconds :
Thirds :Win Only Bets : 1
e/w Only Bets :Price Taken :
0.78
Bookie : Betfair
Returns
: 7.80
Loss :Profit
: +7.80
Closing Bank
: 103.80pts
Pontefract
Pontefract Park Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) (3YO plus) 6f
Micky Quinn : 12.50%
Mick Channon : 12.70%
Michael Jarvis : 30.38%
Nigel Tinkler : 6.98%
Jonathon Gask : 100.00%
Henry Cecil : 32.00%Points Chart
Catalan Bay : 10+7+3 (20)
Invincible Isle : 7+3+7+5+5+5 (32)
Russian Spirit : 5+10+10+3+7+1 (36)
Artistic License : 3+5+3+7+3+7 (28)
Angus Newz : 1+1+5+10+10+10 (37)
Misplaced Fortune : 1+1+1 (3)Robert Winston : 9.85%
Alan Munro : 15.00%
Philip Robinson : 23.13%
Louis P Beuzelin : 0.00%
Tadge O’Shea : 15.38%
Jimmy Quinn : 11.29%Winston & Quinn : 10.34%
Munro & Channon : 5.26%
Robinson & Jarvis : 18.85%
Beuzelin & Tinkler : 0.00%
O’Shea & Gask : 0.00%
Quinn & Cecil : 12.96%Angus Newz : 72.55 (Yarmouth) SR 93 (90)
Artistic License : 72.68 (Goodwood) SR 74 (83)
Russian Spirit : 73.52 (Windsor) SR 82 (74)
Misplaced Fortune : 75.15 (Nottingham) SR 52 (62)
Catalan Bay : 76.81 (Haydock) SR 51 (75)
Invincible Isle : 73.22 (Nottingham) SR 80 (78)ANGUS NEWZ : 37
RUSSIAN SPIRIT : 36
INVINCIBLE ISLE : 32ANGUS NEWZ : 3pt Win @ 4.2 BF
Lots going on today and first we will look at Richard Fahey’s runners
Richard Fahey
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons at yarmouth a 21.62% strike rate with a LSP of -£4.26.
3.10 : Lady Lefroy
3.40 :Newbury Street
Also he has accumulated over the last 10 seasons at Ayr a 14.24% strike rate with an LSP of -£12.43 recording the last 10 runners as losers here.
2.20 : Brinscola /
Jeannies Galloway
3.50 :
Tufton
/ Rossini’s Dancer
4.20 : Unbreak My Heart / Charlie Tokyo
4.50 :Faithful Ruler
5.20 :
She’s in the Money
0.50p e/w Lucky 31 highlighted in black / 1/2pt e/w on all highlighted
Alan Munro
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 15.00% strike rate at Pontefract with a LSP of -£10.93
3.00 :
Citrus Star
4.00 : Artistic License
5.00 :Capeability
5.30 : Betteras Bertie
Hayley Turner
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 11.54% strike rate at Ayr with a LSP OF +£28.00
2.20 :
Horseradish
2.50 : Glenluji
3.20 :Syrian
4.20 : King Charles
4.50 : Moves Goodenough
5.20 : Steel Free
5.50 : Ocean TransitHenry Cecil
has accumulated over the last 10 seasons a 32.00% strike rate at Pontefract with a LSP of +£8.61
4.00 : Invincible Isle
5.00 : Feathered CrownMichael Jarvis
has accumulate over the last 10 seasons a 30.38% strike rate at Pontefract with a LSP of +£21,38
4.00 : Russian Spirit
5.00 :Alainmaar
£1 Lucky 31 / 1pt on each to win
Ayr
16.50 John Smith’s Handicap (Div 1) (Class 4) (3YO plus) 1m
D.H Brown : 0.00%
Paul Midgley : 5.56%
Michael Dods : 9.36%
Richard Fahey : 14.24%
Alan Swinbank : 15.08%
Mark Tompkins : 14.44%
Peter Chapple-Hyam : 0.00%
John Quinn : 9.41%
A.G.Foster : 13.33%
Kevin Ryan : 10.97%
Bryan Smart : 9.46%Points Chart
Ezdeyaad : 10+7+10+5 (32)
Exit Smiling : 10+5 (15)
Kinsya : 7+1+3+5 (16)
Veiled Applause : 5+10+7+10 (32)
Faithful Ruler : 5+3 (8)
Celtic Change : 5+10+3 (18)
Doric Echo : 3+7+1+1 (12)
Thousand Miles : 5+7 (12)
Spirit of a Nation : 3+10 (13)
Moves Goodenough : 3+1+3 (7)
Island Chief : 1+7+1+3 (12)Andrew Heffernan : 0.00%
Micky Fenton : 15.75%
Philip Makin : 10.15%
Patrick McDonald : 15.00%
Ashley Morgan : 0.00%
Richard Mullen : 10.71%
Frederick Tylicki : 14.81%
Hayley Turner : 11.54%
Amy Ryan : 0.00%
Greg Fairley : 14.56%Heffernan & Brown : 0.00%
Fenton & Midgley : 7.50%
Makin & Dods : 14.09%
Hanagan & Fahey : 13.27%
McDonald & Swinbank : 11.48%
Morgan & Tompkins : 12.71%
Mullen & Chapple-Hyam : 5.56%
Tylicki & Quinn : 28.57%
Turner & Foster : 0.00%
Ryan & Ryan : 17.50%
Fairley & Smart : 12.50%Spirit of a Nation : 100.09 ( Kempton AW) SR 78 (85)
Exit Smiling : 103.31 (Beverley) SR 69 (83)
Celtic Change : 98.02 (Redcar) SR 71 (82)
Faithful Ruler : 108.07 (Nottingham) SR 57 (80)
Ezdeyaad : 102.08 (Haydock) SR 99 (83)
Kinsya : 103.00 (Windsor) SR 95 (83)
Thousand Miles : 99.70 (Newmarket) SR 71 (84)
Veiled Applause : 104.69 (Pontefract) SR 96 (85)
Moves Goodenough : 110.40 (Redcar) SR 58 (82)
Island Chief : 101.41 (Musselburgh) SR 82 (64)
Doric Echo : 99.15 (Ayr) SR 81 (81)EZDEYAAD : 32
VEILED APPLAUSE : 32
KINSYA : 16
1pt e/w on both @ 9/1 Coral / 12/1 Ladbrokes
Lucky 15/31/63
Opening Bank
: £500
Bets
: 2
Outlay
: £62
Returns
: £397.05
Lucky 15 returns :
Lucky 31 returns
: £397.05
Lucky 63 returns :Closing Bank
: £855.49
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